March 10: New Hampshire primary and Draft Lodge movement The first test for the candidates came in
New Hampshire, where any candidate's name could be submitted to the ballot without their affirmative consent. With the support of the influential
Manchester Union-Leader and Senator
Norris Cotton, the Goldwater campaign was confident they would carry New Hampshire. However, after a disastrous, gaffe-filled appearance on
Meet the Press and a trip to the state in January, in which he countered President Johnson's claim that Kennedy was "a victim of hate" and challenged
the Pentagon to disclose the details of its long-range missile program, his momentum stalled. In total, Goldwater would spend twenty-one days campaign continuously in New Hampshire before leaving on March 7, confidently predicting, "I've got it made." Many sought an alternative to Goldwater and Rockefeller. Despite lobbying from liberal Republicans, William Scranton and George Romney both legally moved to remove themselves from consideration. Senator
Margaret Chase Smith of neighboring
Maine, the first woman to campaign for a major party nomination, visited only briefly, did not purchase television advertisements, and gained little traction in the state. Another obvious option, Richard Nixon, held himself out as an elder statesman and potential candidate for a draft, but few steps were made on his behalf. Instead, moderates and liberals rallied behind Eisenhower's choice for the nomination,
Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. Lodge was serving as United States Ambassador to South Vietnam, and through his son
George C. Lodge had communicated a policy of non-interference with his campaign managers in New Hampshire. Building off momentum from Eisenhower's rumored endorsement and working with the
Robert Mullen Company, the leanly staffed Draft Lodge movement operated through an effective use of the press and advertising. The Draft Lodge men ran a commercial from the 1960 campaign, edited to imply that Eisenhower had publicly endorsed Lodge. When Goldwater pled with the former president to refute the ad, Eisenhower declined. Draft Lodge gained new momentum in February when Goldwater declared that Lodge had "kind of balled up" Vietnam. Although the Lodge campaign expected that this would open the door for Rockefeller to seize momentum by defending Lodge's name, Rockefeller instead joined the attack with a statement on the "mess" in Vietnam before quickly reversing and publicly apologizing to Lodge. Thus, Lodge remained above the fray and a symbol of patriotic diplomacy, while Goldwater appeared unpatriotic and Rockefeller appeared to be both a bully and a wimp. As the primary approached and Lodge appeared to be a viable candidate, his son and Robert Mullen personally visited the state. The primary itself was held under a foot of snow. Lodge delegates swept, and he received 35 percent of the vote. He was followed by Goldwater with 23 percent, Rockefeller with 21 percent, Nixon with 17 percent, and Margaret Chase Smith with 3 percent. A handful of voters wrote in Bill Scranton, despite his refusal to stand as a candidate. Despite the victory, Lodge announced, "I do not plan to go to the United States. I do not plan to leave Saigon. I do not intend to resign." Regardless, the primary was a major victory for liberals and moderates over the conservative Goldwater campaign.
Scotty Reston predicted Scranton, Nixon, or Lodge would be nominated, and Nixon told reporters, "I feel that there is no man in this country who can make a case against Mr. Johnson more effectively than I can" before departing for a tour of Asia. Goldwater admitted that he had "goofed up somewhere," but his campaign remained optimistic;
Denison Kitchel said he was pleased that "a candidate from the Far West... could do so well in the New England state of New Hampshire,"
Northeast primaries In the four-week lull after New Hampshire, Goldwater and Rockefeller both worked on trying to win endorsements in various states. Both worked on a Republican volunteer organization in
California, where the two were scheduled to appear on the ballot in the primary on June 2. The Field Research Associates released a poll showing Lodge in the lead in the state with 31% to 25% for Goldwater, 21% for Nixon, and just 12% for Rockefeller. Upon hearing the poll results, Goldwater said that Lodge would not do what was needed to win the nomination, and if chosen he would not work hard enough to win the election. Soon thereafter, both Gallup and Harris released polls showing Lodge as the front-runner with Nixon second and Goldwater a poor third. Scranton stated on April 10 that he was not a candidate, thus reducing the field.
Illinois Illinois held its primary on April 14. With the state Republican leadership almost solidly behind Goldwater, only Margaret C. Smith chose to file for the primary against Goldwater. During the campaign, Nixon and Lodge asked followers not to mount a campaign there. Goldwater defeated Smith 62-25%, which was far and away Smith's best primary performance. Lodge placed third on write-ins and Nixon fourth. The delegate count: Goldwater 159, Rockefeller 90, Lodge 14.
New Jersey New Jersey voted on April 21. No candidates filed, so all votes were write-ins. Lodge again placed first with 42% to Goldwater 28%, Nixon 22%, and only 8% for all others.
Massachusetts and
Pennsylvania voted on April 28. No candidate appeared on the ballot in either. On the day before the two primaries, Rockefeller took the controversial stand of calling for US air strikes into Laos and Cambodia to help the government of South Vietnam. Lodge won Massachusetts with 77% of the vote to 10% for Goldwater and only 6% for Nixon. Scranton won his home state with 52% to Lodge 21%, Nixon 10%, and Goldwater 9%. It was clear that the Republican voters were not lining up behind either Goldwater or Rockefeller, who at this point had won together just 35% of the primary vote. In fact, if Illinois is taken out of the numbers, Lodge had received three write-in votes for every Goldwater vote at this stage of the campaign, with Nixon's write-ins very close behind Goldwater.
Texas to Florida Another large chunk of delegates was chosen in the month following the Pennsylvania primary. During this time, eight states held primaries. Rockefeller recognized that the stakes were higher than ever; he was only mounting a serious campaign in two. He attacked Goldwater as irresponsible and extreme, a candidate who would ruin the Republican Party. Rockefeller also publicly chastised the supporters of Lodge. Since moderate Republicans were dividing their primary votes among Rockefeller, Lodge, and Scranton, they were allowing Goldwater to win many delegates he otherwise would not win. Campaigning in West Virginia, Rockefeller said that Lodge was "a person who isn't there, who says nothing on any issues". Goldwater spent the early part of the month in the South. He won 75% of the vote in the first Republican presidential primary in
Texas. That same day, his supporters pushed the small cadre of black voters out of the Georgia Republican Party, taking 22 out of the 24 national delegates. Goldwater supporters the following day forced through Tennessee's first all-white delegation to the Republican National Convention in half a century. With these delegate appointments, the AP estimated that Goldwater had 209 delegates; uncommitted was second with 143 to Scranton 63, Lodge 43, and 55 for others. Rockefeller had not won a single delegate at the time. Four states held mostly uncontested primaries in the following two weeks; Goldwater won Indiana and Nebraska, Rockefeller won West Virginia, and Governor Rhodes won his home state of Ohio. The Oregon primary was held on May 15. As one of the most important primaries of the year, all candidates spent time trying to win the state. Lodge took the lead in Oregon opinion polls soon after the New Hampshire primary, but Rockefeller pressed on Lodge's supporters to abandon him for not taking a stand against Goldwater. The primary was widely seen as a precursor to the California primary, which Goldwater needed to win in order to have a majority of convention delegates. Two days before Oregon voted, a California poll showed Goldwater leading Rockefeller there by 43-27%. The poll precipitated a critical Rockefeller win in the Oregon primary. Rockefeller placed first with 33%, followed by Lodge with 28%, Goldwater with 18%, and Nixon with 17%. In the latter half of the month, Goldwater continued to move towards the nomination. The only contested primary was in Florida, where a slate of uncommitted delegates unexpectedly defeated a Goldwater slate. However, AP estimated on May 24 that Goldwater led with 304 delegates. Scranton was second with 70, followed by Rhodes with 58. Lodge had 44, and Rockefeller had 39; the uncommitted total was 224. The estimate was published the same day that Goldwater supporters were easily defeated in Alaska.
California and South Dakota Senator Goldwater's overall strategy was to lock up the delegate votes from the South and the West. If he could win California, he would be able to win the presidential nomination on the first ballot. His support in California public opinion polls remained a steady 43% throughout the spring, not deterred by his under-performance in primary after primary. Even when Lodge's supporters agreed to join Rockefeller in California in a "stop Goldwater" move, the polls only showed a minimal gain for Rocky. With both candidates campaigning full-time, both drawing large crowds of interested Republicans, the division in the party was quite apparent. Another thing became clear: the California voters finally began shifting to Rocky, who took the lead in opinion polls in the week preceding the primary. As often happens in politics, a mostly unrelated event took place that changed everything. On May 30, Margaretta Rockefeller had a baby son. Newspaper coverage included the information that Margaretta had worked on Rockefeller's staff before the two of them divorced their long-time spouses to marry each other. This was not new information, but it had been mostly forgotten by the voters. Just over two million people voted in California's Republican primary, approximately one third of all nationwide votes in the Republican primaries of 1964. CBS used computers to sample the data collected from various polling places to announce at 7:22 p.m. Pacific time that Goldwater would win the race. Other news organizations were slower to make that prediction, and at one point Rockefeller took the lead temporarily. In the end, Goldwater won the California primary by 3%. Goldwater addressed supporters as the networks showed him in the lead; he said "This is a victory not for Barry Goldwater, but for the mainstream of Republican thinking". By gaining the 86 delegates from California, he was just 30 delegates short of a majority. South Dakota chose 14 delegates on the same day as California, but an uncommitted slate easily defeated a Goldwater slate by a 2:1 margin.
Endorsements ;Senators •
John Sherman Cooper (R-KY) •
Jacob Javits (R-NY) •
Kenneth Keating (R-NY) •
Paul Findley (R-IL) •
Paul Fino (R-NY) •
Seymour Halpern (R-NY) •
Frank Horton (R-NY) •
John Lindsay (R-NY) •
Ogden Reid (R-NY) •
Stanley Tupper (R-ME) ;Senators •
Clifford Case (R-NJ) •
James Pearson (R-KS) •
Hugh Scott (R-PA) ;Representatives •
James G. Fulton (R-PA) •
Charles Mathias (R-MD) •
Richard Schweiker (R-PA) •
John A. Love (R-CO) ;Committeemen •
Robert R. Snodgrass (R-GA) ;State legislators •
Robert Cloer (R-GA) •
Prescott Bush (R-CT) •
George Aiken (R-VT) ==National Convention==