1988 United States presidential election in California

Predictions Results By county Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic • Humboldt • Sonoma • Mendocino • San Mateo • Los Angeles • Santa Clara • Solano • Contra Costa • Lake Results by city Cities & Unincorporated Areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic • Alameda (Alameda) • Newark (Alameda) • San Leandro (Alameda) • Unincorporated Area (Alameda) • Chico (Butte) • Antioch (Contra Costa) • Concord (Contra Costa) • Hercules (Contra Costa) • Martinez (Contra Costa) • Pinole (Contra Costa) • Pleasant Hill (Contra Costa) • Unincorporated Area (Contra Costa) • Crescent City (Del Norte) • Fowler (Fresno) • Kerman (Fresno) • Selma (Fresno) • Eureka (Humboldt) • Unapportioned Absentees (Humboldt) • Unincorporated Area (Humboldt) • Westmorland (Imperial) • Arvin (Kern) • Avenal (Kings) • Baldwin Park (Los Angeles) • Bell Gardens (Los Angeles) • Bell (Los Angeles) • Cudahy (Los Angeles) • El Monte (Los Angeles) • Hawaiian Gardens (Los Angeles) • Hawthorne (Los Angeles) • Huntington Park (Los Angeles) • La Puente (Los Angeles) • Maywood (Los Angeles) • Monterey Park (Los Angeles) • Norwalk (Los Angeles) • Paramount (Los Angeles) • Pasadena (Los Angeles) • Pomona (Los Angeles) • Rosemead (Los Angeles) • San Fernando (Los Angeles) • Santa Fe Springs (Los Angeles) • South Gate (Los Angeles) • Unincorporated Area (Los Angeles) • Madera (Madera) • Larkspur (Marin) • San Rafael (Marin) • Tiburon (Marin) • Fort Bragg (Mendocino) • Point Arena (Mendocino) • Ukiah (Mendocino) • Willits (Mendocino) • Unapportioned Absentees (Mendocino) • Unincorporated Area (Mendocino) • Los Banos (Merced) • Merced (Merced) • Carmel-by-the-Sea (Monterey) • Gonzales (Monterey) • Greenfield (Monterey) • Monterey (Monterey) • Unapportioned Absentees (Monterey) • Calistoga (Napa) • Napa (Napa) • Colfax (Placer) • Indio (Riverside) • Hollister (San Benito) • San Juan Bautista (San Benito) • Needles (San Bernardino) • Rialto (San Bernardino) • San Bernardino (San Bernardino) • National City (San Diego) • Stockton (San Joaquin) • San Luis Obispo (San Luis Obispo) • Belmont (San Mateo) • Burlingame (San Mateo) • Half Moon Bay (San Mateo) • Millbrae (San Mateo) • Redwood City (San Mateo) • San Carlos (San Mateo) • San Mateo (San Mateo) • Guadalupe (Santa Barbara) • Santa Barbara (Santa Barbara) • Campbell (Santa Clara) • Gilroy (Santa Clara) • Mountain View (Santa Clara) • San Jose (Santa Clara) • Santa Clara (Santa Clara) • Unincorporated Area (Santa Clara) • Mt. Shasta (Siskiyou) • Benicia (Solano) • Suisun City (Solano) • Cloverdale (Sonoma) • Healdsburg (Sonoma) • Petaluma (Sonoma) • Rohnert Park (Sonoma) • Santa Rosa (Sonoma) • Sonoma (Sonoma) • Newman (Stanislaus) • Patterson (Stanislaus) • Riverbank (Stanislaus) • Waterford (Stanislaus) - Tie in 1988 • Woodlake (Tulare) By congressional district Bush won 23 of the 45 congressional districts, including five held by Democrats. ==Analysis==

California voted Republican in 1988 for the 9th time out of 10 elections from 1952 on, confirming its status as a Republican electoral bulwark during this period. However, George H. W. Bush won California by only 3.57% even as he won nationally by 7.72%; and Florida displaced it as the state providing the Republican with his biggest raw-vote margin in the nation. Signs of the phenomena that would come to make California a 'Blue Wall' state from 1992 on emerged in this election; for the first time since 1916, Los Angeles County voted for the loser of the national election. Bush was also nearly swept out of the Bay Area, losing populous former Republican strongholds such as Santa Clara, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Marin Counties (as well as Santa Cruz County, the northernmost Central Coast county). While Bush continued to do well in San Diego, Orange, and Ventura Counties (and, to a lesser extent, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Monterey Counties, as well as in relatively thinly populated Napa County), this represented a significant erosion of the Republican Party's traditional base along the length of California's coast. By 2016 2020 and 2024, this process was complete, as every coastal county in the state save Del Norte voted Democratic three elections in a row. On the other hand, in contrast to the 1976, 1968, 1960, and 1948 elections in California, all of which had been close (and which had been won by the Democrat in 1948), Dukakis carried little of inland California, which had traditionally been the Democratic base in the state. Counties that had voted Democratic in all four of those elections, but voted Republican in 1988, included Sacramento, Fresno, Placer, Merced, Shasta, Madera, Amador, Lassen, Plumas, Trinity, and Sierra Counties. Apart from Sacramento, Fresno, and Merced Counties, these have continued to remain as Republican strongholds in the state even as overall it has become increasingly blue in the 21st century. Comparing 1988 directly with what at the time was the most recent close election in California, 1976, Dukakis carried only nine of the 27 counties Carter carried in the state. Three of these (Shasta, Plumas, and Sierra) had even voted for McGovern in the disastrous Democratic defeat of 1972. == Notes ==