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2002 Atlantic hurricane season

The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season featured a then-record eight named storms forming in September. It was a near-average Atlantic hurricane season, producing fourteen tropical cyclones, of which twelve developed into named storms; four became hurricanes, and two attained major hurricane status. The season officially started on June 1, and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally limit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic Ocean. While the season's first cyclone did not develop until July 14, activity quickly picked up: eight storms developed in the month of September. It ended early however, with no tropical storms forming after October 6, a rare occurrence caused partly by El Niño conditions.

Seasonal forecasts
Noted hurricane expert William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Gray's team determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes. Pre-season forecasts On December 7, 2001, Gray's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2002 season, predicting above-average activity (13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and about 2 of Category 3 or higher). It listed an 86 percent chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland. This included a 58 percent chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and a 43 percent chance of at least one such strike on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward. The potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was forecast to be above average. On April 5 a new forecast was issued, calling for 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. The decrease in the forecast was attributed to the further intensification of El Niño conditions. The estimated potential for at least one major hurricane to affect the U.S. was decreased to 75 percent; the East Coast potential decreased slightly to 57 percent, and from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability remained the same. NOAA issued their first seasonal forecast on May 20, predicting 9–13 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes. The government agency stated that the season would most likely be near-average because of a combination of the ongoing high-activity era and an expected weak El Niño, but acknowledged some uncertainty existed due to a lack of strong El Niño or La Niña conditions. Mid-season forecasts On August 7, Gray's team lowered its season estimate to 9 named storms, with 4 becoming hurricanes and 1 becoming a major hurricane, noting that conditions had become less favorable for storms than they had been earlier in the year. The sea-level pressure and trade wind strength in the tropical Atlantic were reported to be above normal, while sea surface temperature anomalies were on a decreasing trend. On August 8, NOAA revised its season estimate to 7–10 named storms, with 4–6 becoming hurricanes and 1–3 becoming major hurricanes. The reduction was attributed to less favorable environmental conditions and building El Niño conditions. Gray and his forecast team at CSU decreased their seasonal predictions again on September 3, calling for 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, with Gray noting an "unusual and unexpected massive rearrangement of global ocean and atmospheric conditions the last three to four months". This included below normal sea surface temperatures, an intensifying El Niño, and abnormally strong sea-level pressure, easterly trade winds, and upper tropospheric westerly winds. ==Seasonal summary==
Seasonal summary
over the Gulf of Mexico on October 2, as seen by the International Space Station The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2002. It was a near-average season in which 14 tropical cyclones formed. Twelve depressions attained tropical storm status, and four of these reached hurricane status. Two hurricanes further intensified into major hurricanes. Activity was suppressed somewhat by an El Niño, which was of near-moderate intensity by August. Overall, the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2002 collectively resulted in 50 deaths and around $2.43 billion in damage. The season ended on November 30, 2002. During that month, Gustav reached hurricane intensity on September 11, the latest date of the first hurricane in a season since 1941. While the long-lasting Kyle and Lili persisted into October, only one tropical cyclone developed that month, Tropical Depression Fourteen on October 14. The depression was absorbed by a cold front while crossing Cuba two days later, ending seasonal activity. The season's activity was reflected with a low accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 67, the lowest total since 1997. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. It is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding , which is the threshold for tropical storm status. ==Systems==
Systems
Tropical Storm Arthur A dissipating cold front stalled over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in early July, producing a weak low-level circulation on July 9. The system then drifted for a few days, until a mid-level trough moved the circulation across the southeastern United States on July 13. On the next day, the system moved along the coast of the Carolinas, producing an organized area of convection over its center, which became, Tropical Depression One several hours later about west-southwest of Hatteras, North Carolina, A deepening mid-level low south of Atlantic Canada caused the depression to move quickly east-northeastward and cross the Gulf Stream, allowing it to intensify into Tropical Storm Arthur on July 15 as rainbands developed. Arthur peaked with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a minimum pressure of early on July 16. and Arthur became an extratropical cyclone on July 16 about south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The storm turned northward around a larger mid-level low, moving over eastern Newfoundland before drifting southeastward between Newfoundland and Greenland on July 19, and by late in the day its winds decreased to below gale-force. On July 16, Arthur passed north of Bermuda, where it brought gusty winds and of rainfall. As an extratropical storm, Arthur produced gusty winds and dropped about of rainfall in Newfoundland. Tropical Storm Bertha In early August, a surface trough extended from the northern Gulf of Mexico across Florida into the western Atlantic Ocean. The eastern portion ultimately became Tropical Storm Cristobal. The western portion developed into a low pressure area on August 3 over the Gulf of Mexico. Late on August 4, the low organized into Tropical Depression Two just east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It soon strengthened into Tropical Storm Bertha, as outflow and rainbands developed. At 02:00 UTC, Bertha made landfall near Boothville, Louisiana with peak winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). After crossing Lake Pontchartrain, the storm fell to tropical depression status. The track shifted to the southwest, steered around the periphery of a ridge. Bertha emerged back over the Gulf of Mexico again on August 7, developing intermittent thunderstorms. However, it failed to restrengthen due to proximity to land. On August 9, Bertha made its second and final landfall near Kingsville, Texas as a tropical depression, dissipating ten hours later. The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning from Pascagoula, Mississippi to the mouth of the Mississippi River, shortly before Bertha made landfall. A flood watch was issued for portions of eastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. The precursor to Bertha generated rip currents along the Florida coastline. In Perdido Key State Recreation Area, one person drowned, and two children required rescue from the currents. Rainfall in Florida reached near Clermont. The highest rainfall in Alabama was in Coden. Upon Bertha making landfall, Waveland, Mississippi recorded a peak storm surge of . Sustained winds there peaked at , and a peak gust of . Rainfall from Bertha reached in Pascagoula. The storm dropped heavy rainfall in Louisiana, which peaked at in Norwood. The mouth of the Bayou Dupre recorded a storm tide of . Damage in Louisiana totaled $150,000 (2002 USD). In Texas, Bertha produced a storm tide of at Baffin Bay. Rainfall in the state reached in Dumas. Tropical Storm Cristobal A trough, which produced Bertha in the Gulf of Mexico, extended from there to the western Atlantic in early August and spawned a low-pressure area offshore South Carolina. The low moved eastward and organized into a tropical depression late on August 5 about 175 mi (280 km/h) east-southeast of Charleston. Although the convection was confined to its southern half, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Cristobal on August 6. The storm turned eastward on the next day due to an approaching large mid to upper-level frontal zone. As the convection organized further, Cristobal intensified slightly and peaked with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and a minimum pressure of . On August 8, Cristobal accelerated east-northeastward as dry air weakened its convection. The low-level circulation interacted with the approaching frontal zone, and by 00:00 UTC on August 9, Cristobal was absorbed by the cold front about 350 mi (560 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. As a tropical cyclone, Cristobal had minimal effects on land. However, its remnants brought unsettled conditions to Bermuda, including a 45 mph (72 km/h) wind gust at the international airport. The combination of moisture from Cristobal and cold front into which it was absorbed produced 2.78 in (71 mm) of rain there in a 24‑hour period. An annual powerboat race circumnavigating Bermuda had to be postponed by a week because of the adverse weather. Cristobal produced rough seas and rip currents along portions of the U.S. East Coast. On August 9, lifeguards in Volusia County, Florida, rescued about 25 swimmers caught in rip currents. Offshore winds from the storm were credited with ending a widespread outbreak of jellyfish stings affecting bathers along the northeast coast of Florida. Some 1,000 stings had been reported. Later, the extratropical remnants of Cristobal continued to interact with a high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic states to generate dangerous swimming conditions further north. Along the south shore of Long Island, New York, significant wave heights reached 4 ft (1.2 m), and rip currents resulted in three drowning deaths: one in Montauk; one just east of Moriches Inlet; and one off Rockaway Beach. In the latter case, the victim had become exhausted after swimming out to save his son-in-law, an inexperienced swimmer, from the rip current. Tropical Storm Dolly A tropical wave exited the African coast on August 27, and with favorable conditions the system organized into Tropical Depression Four on August 29 about southwest of Cape Verde. Six hours later, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dolly after developing sufficient outflow and curved banding features. The storm continued to intensify as more convection developed, and Dolly peaked with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of on August 30. The cyclone began moving in a more northward direction by September 2 because of an approaching mid-level trough. After a brief re-intensification trend, Dolly again weakened due to wind shear and fell to tropical depression status on September 4, several hours before being absorbed by the trough approximately northeast of the Leeward Islands. The depression moved to the northwest at first, steered by a ridge to its northwest. Despite the presence of wind shear and dry air, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Edouard on September 2, although the strongest thunderstorms were displaced from the circulation. Edouard began a small loop of Florida's east coast amid weak steering currents. On September 3, the storm strengthened to reached peak winds of . Early on September 5, Edouard made landfall near Ormond Beach, Florida as a minimal tropical storm, and almost immediately weakened to a tropical depression over land. It tracked across the state for about 13 hours and entered the Gulf of Mexico near Crystal River. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, the depression encountered strong wind shear from the outflow of developing Tropical Storm Fay. While moving erratically off the east coast of Florida, Edouard produced rough surf conditions and rip currents along many beaches. Beachgoers and visitors were advised to exercise extreme caution. Ahead of the storm, wind gusts reached at Patrick Air Force Base. The rains caused river flooding along the St. Johns River, resulting in flooding along roads in Seminole County. Roadway, urban, and lowland flooding was also reported in the counties of Brevard and Orange. Roadway flooding was extensive in some areas, resulting in road closures in Oviedo, Cocoa Beach, and Cape Canaveral. Heavy rainfall in Pinellas Park caused heavy street flooding along an intersection on U.S. Highway 19. Tropical Storm Fay In early September, a low pressure center developed along a trough of low pressure, and on September 5, the system had gained sufficient organization to be a tropical depression approximately 100 mi (155 km) southeast of Galveston, Texas. The depression drifted south-southwest while strengthening into Tropical Storm Fay early on September 6 and reached its peak strength with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a minimum pressure of about 24 hours later. The system then abruptly turned to the west-northwest, and remained steady in strength and course until landfall near Matagorda, Texas, at 09:00 UTC on September 7. It quickly degenerated into a remnant low, which itself moved slowly southwestward over Texas. The low eventually dissipated on September 11 over northeastern Mexico. In Texas, Fay spawned six tornadoes, dropped heavy rains, and produced extended periods of tropical storm-force winds. Those winds and tornadoes damaged about 900 homes and almost 100 businesses in Brazoria County alone, while floodwaters also entered over 1,500 homes and nearly 500 cars in that county. Nearby, Galveston, Matagorda, and Wharton counties each reported damage to hundreds of homes. Heavy rains also fell in northeastern Mexico. At least hundreds of families fled their homes due to flooding concerns, with approximately 300 families reporting that they could not return for several weeks. Tropical Depression Seven A tropical wave exited Africa on September 1, and after initial development became disorganized. It moved west-northwestward for a week, reorganizing enough by September 7 to be declared Tropical Depression Seven about east-southeast of Bermuda. At the time, the depression had persistent convection around a small circulation, and it moved steadily westward due to a ridge to its north. Shortly after forming, strong wind shear diminished the convection and left the center partially exposed. Thus, the depression did not strengthen beyond winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) and a minimum pressure of . and the depression degenerated into a remnant low-pressure area. The storm dissipated shortly after as strong wind shear continued to cause the storm to deteriorate while located 980 mi (1580 mi) southeast of Bermuda. The storm was responsible $100,000 in damage to vehicles and property in North Carolina, where about 40 people had to be rescue from rough seas at Hatteras alone. Gustav drowned one person in South Carolina, In Atlantic Canada, the hurricane and its remnants brought heavy rain, tropical storm and hurricane-force winds, as well as storm surges for several days. Tropical Storm Hanna In early September, a tropical wave merged with a trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and spawned a low-pressure system. Convection steadily deepened on September 11 east of the upper-level low and the surface low; it was classified as Tropical Depression Nine the next day roughly south of Pensacola, Florida. The disorganized storm moved westward, then northward, where it strengthened into Tropical Storm Hanna later on September 12. After reaching a peak with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a minimum pressure of on September 14, Hanna made two landfalls on the Gulf Coast, first over far eastern Louisiana and then just west of the Mississippi-Alabama state line. Hanna weakened to a tropical depression late that day and then dissipated over Georgia on September 15. Because most of the associated convective activity was east of the center of circulation, minimal damage was reported in Louisiana and Mississippi. Portions of Florida received high wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and strong surf that resulted in the deaths of three swimmers. Throughout the state, 20,000 homes lost electricity. The heavy rainfall progressed into Georgia, where significant flooding occurred. Crop damage was extensive, and over 300 structures were damaged by the flooding. Overall, Hanna caused a total of about $20 million in damage and three fatalities. The hurricane then curved southwestward and made landfall late on September 22 near Telchac Puerto, Yucatán. Isidore slowly executed a small cyclonic loop over the Yucatán Peninsula and weakened to a tropical storm on the next day. Although Isidore emerged into the Gulf of Mexico near where it made landfall, the storm would not be able to reorganize significantly while trekking generally northward. Around 06:00 UTC on September 26, Isidore struck near Grand Isle, Louisiana, with winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). After moving inland, the storm weakened to a tropical depression early the next day and headed rapidly north-northeastward to northeastward, several hours before becoming extratropical over Pennsylvania on September 27. The extratropical remnants were soon absorbed by a frontal zone. In Cuba, rainfall and storm surge demolished 77 houses, Isidore also killed thousands of livestock, ruined coffee and tobacco crops, and damaged more than 130 tobacco drying houses. In Mexico, Isidore produced intense winds and rainfall exceeding in some places. Consequently, the storm damaged approximately 83,000 homes and destroyed almost 36,500 others, leaving 300,000-500,000 people homeless. Rainfall from Isidore in the United States peaked at in Metairie, Louisiana. In Mississippi, flooding damaged about 1,400 homes and 300 businesses in Harrison County, while 2,500 residences in Hancock County and 50 businesses and homes in Jackson County suffered damage. Overall, Isidore caused about $330 million in damage and five deaths in the country, four directly and one indirectly. Tropical Storm Josephine A non-tropical low developed along a dissipating stationary front on September 16 in the central Atlantic and drifted north-northeastward. The National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression Eleven on September 17 about east of Bermuda, and initially the depression did not have significant deep convection. A wind report early on September 18 indicated the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Josephine. Josephine maintained a well-defined circulation, but its deep convection remained intermittent. Early on September 19, the storm began being absorbed by the cold front, and as a tropical cyclone, its winds never surpassed 40 mph (65 km/h) or its atmospheric pressure decreased below . Later that day, Josephine transitioned into an extratropical cyclone about southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and suddenly intensified to winds of 60 mph (95 km/h). The extratropical low was quickly absorbed by another larger extratropical system late on September 19. Kyle brought light precipitation to Bermuda. Moderate rainfall accompanied its two landfalls in the United States, causing localized flash flooding and road closures. In South Carolina, floodwaters forced the evacuation of a nursing home and several mobile homes, with 17 severely damaged in Manning. Kyle spawned at least four tornadoes in the United States, The cyclone also brought rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region, though it was mainly beneficial due to drought conditions. Overall damage totaled about $5 million. Hurricane Lili On September 16, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa, and crossed the Atlantic, organizing into a tropical depression about east of the Windward Islands on September 21. The depression intensified into Tropical Storm Lili on September 23, several hours before crossing the islands. After nearly reaching hurricane status over the eastern Caribbean, the storm degenerated into a tropical wave on September 25 north of the ABC islands, before becoming a tropical depression again early on September 27 about halfway between Haiti and Colombia. The cyclone re-intensified into a tropical storm several hours later. On September 30, Lili became a hurricane while passing over the Cayman Islands. After striking Cuba's Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Río Province as a Category 2 on October 1, the storm attained Category 4 status in the Gulf of Mexico, peaking with winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) and a minimum pressure of late on October 2. However, Lili rapidly weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the following day before striking near Intracoastal City, Louisiana. On October 4, Lili was absorbed by an extratropical low near the TennesseeArkansas border. Rains and gusty winds in the Windward Islands damaged hundreds of buildings, knocked out utility services, and ruined banana crops, especially on Saint Lucia, which lost at least half of its crop. while four people died due to a landslide on Saint Vincent. Similarly, immense precipitation on Jamaica led to floods and mudslides that killed four people and damaged infrastructure, including all hospitals on the island. Strong winds and rainfall in Cuba damaged over 50,000 homes and compounded losses to tobacco and rice crops that were impacted by Isidore. Wind gusts reaching , coupled with over of rainfall and a storm surge of , lashed the south coast of Louisiana. In Vermilion Parish, the storm damaged almost 4,000 homes and thousands of others in neighboring Acadia Parish. A total of 237,000 people lost power, and oil rigs offshore were shut down for up to a week. At least $30 million in damage occurred in Mississippi. Tropical Depression Fourteen A weak tropical wave moved through the Lesser Antilles on October 9. As the system reached the southwestern Caribbean on October 12, convection increased, and a broad low-pressure area formed later that day. Over the next two days, the low significantly organized, and became Tropical Depression Fourteen at 12:00 UTC on October 14 roughly north-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios, located at the Honduras–Nicaragua border. The depression initially tracked west-northwestward, but then curved north-northeastward. Vertical wind shear prevented the depression from intensifying beyond winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) and a minimum pressure of . By 16:00 UTC on October 16, the depression struck near Cienfuegos, Cuba, with winds of . While crossing the island, the depression was absorbed by a cold front early on October 17. Locally heavy rains over portions of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. ==Storm names==
Storm names
The following list of names was used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2002. This was the same list used in the 1996 season, with the exception of the names Cristobal, Fay and Hanna, which replaced Cesar, Fran and Hortense respectively. Each of the three new names was used for the first time in 2002. Beginning in 2002, subtropical cyclones were numbered and named following the same procedure as tropical cyclones. Gustav was the first subtropical system to be named under the new policy. Retirement In the spring of 2003, the World Meteorological Organization retired the names Isidore and Lili from its rotating Atlantic hurricane name lists due to the damage each caused, and they will never be used again in the Atlantic basin. Those names were replaced with Ike and Laura for the 2008 season. ==Season effects==
Season effects
This is a table of all of the storms that formed in the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their name, duration, peak classification and intensities, areas affected, damage, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2002 USD. ==See also==
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