2008 The share of problem loans in bank portfolios grew to 10.3 percent by 11 December 2008 and is continuing to grow. Banks have all but stopped issuing loans, and clients have hurried to withdraw deposits. In October 2008, the
National Bank of Ukraine introduced a moratorium on withdrawals ahead of schedule. Industrial output in November 2008 tumbled 28.6 percent, following a 19.8 decline in October 2008.
Steel production slumped 48.8 percent,
oil refining and
chemical output fell 35.2 percent and
machine building by 38.8 percent. Ukraine's economy shrunk 14.4 percent year-on-year in November 2008. Statistical data showed the gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 3.6 percent in January–November compared to 5.8 percent in January–October. Ukraine's Economy Ministry expects the economy to grow 3.5-4.0 percent in 2008. The Hryvnia also lost value. According to a poll (held 25 November through 5 December 2008) by the
Horshenin Institute of Management Problems about 79% of those polled suffered from rise in prices, about 29% from delays in payment of salaries. More than some 20% have suffered from reduction of salaries. In the families of some 14.8% somebody lost their job, and some 6% said their enterprise shut down. A total of 90.8% of those polled described their financial state as "making both ends meet" and 83.1% said they are short of money for food. Only 2.4% of Ukrainians said they were not hit by the economic crisis at all. Mid-December 2008 the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the forecast for Ukraine's GDP in 2009 from a 2.5% growth rate to a 5% decline, the same day the
Cabinet of Ministers worsened the GDP growth forecast to 0.4% from 6% for 2009. In November 2008, the IMF approved a stand-by loan program for Ukraine to the tune of
$16.5
billion. A second one worth $1.87 billion might be granted in February 2009. In November 2008, the official unemployment rate increased by 0.4 percent to 2.3 (Previously 1.9% in September), the State Statistics Committee said that as of 1 December 2008, it registered 640,000 unemployed people.
2009 Ukraine's banking system recorded losses of ₴7 billion (UAH) ($909 million) in the first quarter of 2009 compared to a profit of ₴2.1 billion in the same period a year ago, according to a central bank report of 22 April 2009. In April 2009 the IMF forecast an 8.0 percent shrink of the Ukrainian economy in 2009 and a 1.0 percent grow in 2010. In Mid-April 2009,
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the IMF mission chief in Ukraine, stated that there were a number of encouraging signs that Ukraine's economy had started to adjust to the global crisis. According to Olena Belan, analyst at Dragon Capital, "that is a good signal for investors, showing that Ukraine is taking anti-crisis measures and the economic situation is under control."
Foreign direct investment did plunge 66% (to $2.7 billion) in the first half of 2009. On 18 May 2009 Ukraine's State Statistics Committee reported that the
deficit of Ukraine's foreign trade in the first quarter of 2009 was estimated at $419.7 million, which was 9 times down on the same period the previous year. The Ukrainian state became the
de facto owner of Ukrhazbank (84.21% after investing ₴3.2 billion), Rodovid Bank (99.97% after investing ₴2.809 billion) and Bank Kyiv (99.93% after investing ₴3.563 billion) early June 2009. The industrial output of Ukraine in the period January–August 2009 shrank by 29.6% compared to the same period in 2008. The fall in Ukraine's industrial output slowed to 26.7% in July 2009 compared to July 2008, compared to a fall of 27.5% in June and 31.8% in April and May 2009 (compared to 2008 again). On 17 September 2009 the
World Bank approved a loan for Ukraine in the amount of $400 million. According to a public opinion poll conducted by
FOM-Ukraine in September/October 2009 46.2% of those polled thought that the economic situation in the country would worsen within the next few months, while 35% stated that the economic situation in Ukraine would remain unchanged and 8% thought the situation would improve. On 1 November 2009 the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that it could cut financial assistance to Ukraine; managing director of the IMF
Dominique Strauss-Kahn stated he was “very worried” with
President Viktor Yushchenko’s decision to sign a bill adopting wage and pension increases.
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko accused Yushchenko and other candidate for the
2010 Ukrainian presidential election of backing the increase to sabotage her
government and thereby undercutting her presidential bid. In late November 2009, acting vice governor of the
National Bank of Ukraine Vasyl Pasichnyk forecasted no mass bankruptcies in the Ukrainian banking sector.
2010 Ukraine's total foreign debt (state and corporate) had reached 93.5% of the 912.563 billion
Hryvnya GDP in March 2010; late February 2010 the Ukrainian Finance Ministry had reported that the country's total state debt by early 2010 was to 32.9% of the GDP. 18 March 2010 the
National Bank of Ukraine stated the
total external debt in Ukraine increased 2.3% to
$103.973 billion in 2009, and it considered a 4% GDP growth realistic for 2010 the same day. The Ukrainian economy recovered in the first quarter of 2010 due to stronger-than-expected growth in the global economy, driven primarily by emerging Asia and Latin America, larger social transfers to the population approved in the 2010 budget law and a lower price for imported natural gas (due to the
2010 Ukrainian–Russian Naval Base for Natural Gas treaty). ==See also==