2016 United States presidential election in Michigan

Democratic primary The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. On the same day, the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was one of the largest upsets in American political history, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points. Results Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot: Republican primary Four candidates participated in the Republican primary. }} Debate Detroit, March 3 The eleventh debate was held on March 3, 2016, at the Fox Theatre in downtown Detroit, Michigan. It was the third debate to air on Fox News Channel. Special Report anchor Bret Baier, The Kelly File anchor Megyn Kelly and Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace served as moderators. It led into the Maine, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii contests. Fox announced that in order for candidates to qualify, they must have at least 3 percent support in the five most recent national polls by March 1 at 5 pm. Ben Carson said on March 2 he would not be attending the debate. Results Thirteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot: ==General election==

Predictions Polling Except for losing one poll in August 2015, and tying with Trump in a poll in September 2015, Clinton won every pre-election poll with margins between 4 and 12 points until November 2016. In late October 2016, Clinton's lead narrowed significantly towards the election. Trump also won the last poll conducted on election day 49% to 47%. The average of the last three polls had Clinton leading Trump 47.6% to 45%. Ultimately, Trump's win here was an extreme surprise. Minor candidates The following were given write-in status: • Cherunda Fox • Ben Hartnell • Tom Hoefling • Laurence Kotlikoff • Evan McMullin • Mike Maturen • Monica Moorehead Results By county Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican • Bay (largest city: Bay City) • Calhoun (largest city: Battle Creek) • Eaton (largest city: Charlotte) • Gogebic (largest city: Ironwood) • Isabella (largest city: Mount Pleasant) • Lake (largest village: Baldwin) • Macomb (largest city: Warren) • Manistee (largest city: Manistee) • Monroe (largest city: Monroe) • Saginaw (largest city: Saginaw) • Shiawassee (largest city: Owosso) • Van Buren (largest city: South Haven) By congressional district Trump won nine of 14 congressional districts. ==Analysis==

Although won by Democratic candidates in every election since 1992, sometimes by decisive margins, in 2016 Michigan was considered a swing state and received much attention from Republican candidate Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton's campaign was confident they would win the state, and projected a 5-point win up until election day. Trump was able to win the state for the first time since George H. W. Bush won it in 1988, albeit by a narrow 0.23% margin of victory. On Election Day, Detroit Free Press had prematurely called the state for Clinton at 9:15pm before retracting the call three hours later, an error which had been common in many sources at the 2000 election, in the states of Florida and New Mexico. Trump was able to flip Michigan, making large gains throughout the state except for a handful of heavily college-educated counties (see the map). In particular, Washtenaw County (home to the University of Michigan), voted to the left of Wayne County (home to Detroit), despite Washtenaw County being just 11.5% Black and Wayne County being 37.3% Black. Washtenaw has continued to vote to the left of Wayne in every presidential election since 2016. Donald Trump's upset victory highlighted Michigan's new status as a swing state, being bitterly contested in the 2020 election, when former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden narrowly flipped it back into the Democratic column, and in 2024 when Trump flipped it back into the Republican column. Trump's State Campaign was run by Scott Hagerstrom (State Director), CJ Galdes (Deputy State Director), Christopher Morris (Field Director), and (Events Coordinator). Trump was the first Republican to win Bay, Lake, and Saginaw counties since 1984, Gogebic County since 1972, and Isabella County since 1988. Wayne County was not the most Democratic county in the state for the first time since 1984 (instead, that distinction was held by neighboring Washtenaw County), which has remained true in every election since. Recount The Michigan Board of Canvassers certified Trump's lead of 10,704 votes over Clinton, a 0.23% margin, on November 28. The deadline to request a recount was then set for November 30 at 2:00 p.m. That same day, Green Party candidate Jill Stein's campaign requested a hand recount, but the recount was halted December 1 after the state received an objection from Trump representatives. The objection was rejected by Michigan's Bureau of Elections on December 2, and a federal judge ordered the recount to start again on December 5. ==See also==