2016 is the only presidential race since
1948 in which the Democratic nominee won the national popular vote without Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania's vote for Donald Trump, along with that of
Wisconsin and
Michigan, marked the fall of the Democratic
Blue Wall, a bloc of over 240 electoral votes that voted solidly Democratic from 1992 to 2012. Pennsylvania was one of the eleven states to have voted twice for
Bill Clinton in
1992 and
1996 which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Although Wisconsin eventually delivered the Trump victory, when the Clinton campaign learned that they had lost Pennsylvania, they knew that they had lost the election. While political analysts generally agree that Clinton met her turnout targets for Democratic voters, especially among the key counties of Bucks and Montgomery, Republican voter turnout was unexpectedly high in 2016, leading to a Trump win regardless of the Clinton campaign hitting their targets. Except for the most college-educated counties in the state (see the map), Trump made massive gains. Chester and
Montgomery counties swung significantly leftward, while Centre County (home to
Pennsylvania State University) swung slightly leftward.
Philadelphia County itself swung slightly rightward, though Clinton still won over 80% of the vote there. This prevented Clinton from winning the state, but it did keep Trump’s margin of victory below 1%. Trump became the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying
Chester or
Dauphin Counties, as well as the first to do so without carrying
Centre County since
Benjamin Harrison in
1888, and the first to do so without carrying
Monroe County since
Calvin Coolidge in
1924. He also became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania without carrying any of Philadelphia's suburban counties. Trump was the first Republican nominee for president to win Luzerne and Northampton counties since
1988. He was the first Republican to win Erie County since 1984. As of the 2024 presidential race, 2016 was the first time since 1996 that neither major party won a majority of the vote in Pennsylvania. ==See also==