2021 Scottish Parliament election

Electoral events 2016 Scottish Parliament election At the 2016 election, the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) lost its parliamentary majority but was able to continue governing under Nicola Sturgeon as a minority administration. At the same election, the Conservatives overtook Labour to place second, whilst the Greens overtook the Liberal Democrats to place fourth. • June 2017: United Kingdom general election. The SNP lost 21 of its MPs, winning 35 seats. The Conservatives won 13 seats, with their highest vote share in any election in Scotland since 1979. Labour won seven seats, while the Liberal Democrats won four. • May 2019: European Parliament election. This was dominated by the impending Brexit-deadline. The SNP won three of the six seats in Scotland, with the Brexit Party, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats each winning one seat. • December 2019: United Kingdom general election. The SNP increased its share of the vote, reclaiming thirteen of the seats they lost in 2017. The Conservatives won six Scottish seats with a net lost of seven. The Liberal Democrats won four seats with no net losses, but their leader, Jo Swinson, lost her own seat to the SNP. Labour was reduced to a single Scottish seat, a net loss of six. Leadership changes Three parties had undergone leadership changes since the 2016 election. In August 2017, Kezia Dugdale resigned as leader of Scottish Labour and was replaced by Richard Leonard. In January 2021, less than four months before the election, Leonard resigned. Anas Sarwar won the subsequent leadership election. In August 2019, Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie became co-leaders of the Scottish Greens. Also in August 2019, Ruth Davidson resigned as leader of the Scottish Conservatives and was succeeded by Jackson Carlaw. Carlaw resigned as leader in July 2020, with Douglas Ross winning the subsequent leadership election unopposed. Expansion of the electorate The 2021 election was the first to come after the passage of the Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representation) Act, which extended the franchise to those serving prison sentences of 12 months or less. In 2005, the United Kingdom was found in breach of Protocol 1, Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights in regards to prisoner voting rights in the European Court of Human Rights as a result of Hirst v United Kingdom (No 2); the Act brings Scotland in line with the court ruling. This act also allows all foreign nationals resident in Scotland to vote and all those with indefinite leave to remain or equivalent status, including pre–settled status in the United Kingdom, to stand as candidates. A BBC News report in April 2021 said that there were around 55,000 foreign nationals who had been given the right to vote as a result of these changes, including 20,000 refugees. ==Date==

Under the Scotland Act 1998, an ordinary general election to the Scottish Parliament would normally have been held on the first Thursday in May four years after the 2016 election, i.e. in May 2020. This would have clashed with the proposed date of a UK general election, although this became a moot point when a snap UK general election was held in June 2017 (a further UK general election was held in December 2019). In November 2015, the Scottish Government published a Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill, which proposed to extend the term of the Parliament to five years. The Scottish Elections (Dates) Act did not affect the legal possibilities for the Parliament to be dissolved earlier, those being; • That the date of the poll may be varied by up to one month either way by the monarch, on the proposal of the Presiding Officer. On 16 November 2020, the Scottish General Election (Coronavirus) Bill was introduced. The bill also proposed to change the date of dissolution to the day before the election, meaning that the Parliament could be recalled during the election period. Parliament was in fact recalled on 12 April, to allow MSPs to mark the death of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. ==Retiring MSPs==

James Dornan announced in February 2020 his intention to retire at the next Holyrood election, but reversed this decision some months later. ==Parties==

The SNP, Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats fielded candidates in all 73 constituencies and all eight of the regional ballots. Five other parties contested both all eight regions and at least one constituency: the Scottish Greens (12 constituencies) the Scottish Libertarian Party (9), the Scottish Family Party (7), UKIP (5) and the Freedom Alliance (4). Four parties – Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party, Alba Party, All for Unity, and Reform UK – stood in all eight electoral regions, but did not contest any constituencies. Six other parties contested some of the regions and at least one constituency: TUSC (3 regions and 3 constituencies), Restore Scotland (2 regions, 4 constituencies), Scotia Future (2 of each), the Communist Party of Britain (2 regions and 1 constituency), the Reclaim Party (1 of each) and the Vanguard Party (also 1 of each). Five other parties – Independent Green Voice (5 regions), Renew (5), the Social Democratic Party (2), Women's Equality (2) and Animal Welfare (1) – contested some of the regions, but not any constituencies. The Scottish Socialist Party, which participated in the last election as part of the electoral alliance RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance, opted not to participate in this election, for the first time since its inception. List of parties contesting all regional ballots ==Election system, seats and regions==

voter guide booklet sent to Scottish households ahead of the election. The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament was 129. The Scottish Parliament uses an additional member system (AMS), designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region. There are 8 regions, each sub-divided into 8 to 10 single-member constituencies. There is a total of 73 constituencies. Each constituency elects one MSP by the plurality (first past the post) system of election. Each region elects 7 additional MSPs using an additional member system. A modified D'Hondt method using the constituency results is used to elect these additional MSPs. The boundaries of the 73 constituencies last changed as of the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, as did the configuration of the electoral regions used to elect "list" members of the Scottish Parliament. These revisions were the outcome of the First Periodical Review of the Scottish Parliament's constituencies and regions conducted by the Boundary Commission for Scotland; the Review was announced on 3 July 2007 and the Commission published its final report on 26 May 2010. The Scottish Parliament constituencies have not been coterminous with Scottish Westminster constituencies since the 2005 general election, when the 72 former UK Parliament constituencies were replaced with a new set of 59, generally larger, constituencies (see Scottish Parliament (Constituencies) Act 2004). The size difference between Westminster and Holyrood boundaries was due to diverge further upon the implementation of the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which has not been voted upon by Parliament. The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies for a UK total of 650 MPs commenced in England in 2021 and will complete for the UK by 2023. == Campaign ==

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021. On 26 March 2021, the Alba Party was publicly launched by former First Minister of Scotland and SNP leader, Alex Salmond. The party announced plans to stand list-only candidates. Two sitting SNP MPs later defected to the Alba party. The Action for Independence party, which had intended to pursue a similar list-only strategy, announced they would stand down their candidates in favour of Alba. Sturgeon said she would refuse to have any dealings with Salmond unless he apologises to the women who had accused him of harassment. Salmond was ultimately acquitted of all charges. BBC Scotland announced that it would broadcast two debates between the main parties' leaders; the first was aired on 30 March 2021 and was moderated by the corporation's Scotland editor Sarah Smith. The debate included key questions from the audience on the COVID-19 recovery, climate change, and a second referendum on Scottish independence. The second BBC debate was held on 4 May 2021 and was moderated by BBC Scotland's political editor Glenn Campbell. Commercial broadcaster STV held their leaders' debate on 13 April, moderated by their political editor Colin Mackay. NUS Scotland held a debate, specifically on student issues, on 20 April; it was moderated by NUS Scotland president Matt Crilly and featured the three main party leaders. with Willie Rennie following on 18 April. Whilst Nicola Sturgeon was set to be interviewed on 11 April, campaigning was delayed following the death of Prince Philip and her phone-in was instead held on 22 April. Patrick Harvie followed on 25 April; and Anas Sarwar had the final phone-in on 2 May. Following Prince Philip's death on 9 April, the SNP, Conservatives, Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats said they would suspend election campaigning until further notice. After discussion between the parties, they agreed to resume campaigning after a special parliamentary session on 12 April to make tributes and to pause activities again on the day of the funeral (17 April). Election debates == Opinion polling ==

Graph of opinion poll results prior to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Trendlines are 30-day moving averages. ;Key SNP – Scottish National Party Conservative – Scottish Conservatives Labour – Scottish Labour Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats Green – Scottish Greens UKIP – UK Independence Party Reform – Reform UK SSP – Scottish Socialist Party Alba – Alba Party AFU – All for Unity ==Target seats==

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2016 result to change hands. The most marginal opportunity for the Greens was in Glasgow Kelvin, which they needed a 7.1% swing to gain. The Liberal Democrats' best bet was Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, which required a 6.1% swing. The SNP ended up holding both of these constituencies. SNP targets Conservative targets Labour targets == Results ==

Overall (Note: no mechanism is used to have the overall seat counts for each party reflect the party share of the overall vote. Each region is taken independently and seats in each region are allocated just as per the region's vote.) Votes summary Central Scotland Glasgow Highlands and Islands Lothian Mid Scotland and Fife North East Scotland South Scotland West Scotland Constituency seat changes compared to 2016 MSPs who lost their seats Analysis The SNP won 64 seats, falling one seat short of an overall majority. Some commentators put this down to unionists voting tactically for Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates. According to psephologist John Curtice, "Denying the SNP an overall majority was, indeed, a collective effort – at least on the part of Unionist voters, who on the constituency ballot demonstrated a remarkable willingness to back whichever pro-Union party appeared to be best placed locally to defeat the SNP. [...] These patterns had a decisive impact on the outcome." This was apparent in seats like Dumbarton, where incumbent Labour MSP Jackie Baillie saw her 0.3% majority increased to 3.9%, whilst both the Conservative and Lib Dem vote share decreased. In The National, Emer O'Toole questioned whether social media adverts with "a lack of transparency over funding" may have cost the SNP key seats as well. The day before the election, The Guardian reported that anti-independence groups and campaigners had "spent tens of thousands of pounds in the past week", including on Facebook adverts, calling for tactical voting to prevent the SNP getting a majority. One of these groups was Scotland Matters, whose founder, Professor Hugh Pennington said, "Across the country as a whole, tactical voting is obviously one of the ways forward to basically harm the SNP, not to put too fine a point on it." The Scottish and Welsh Election Studies 2021, revealed on 13 June, found that around a third of Scottish voters who decided to vote differently in the run-up to the election did so to stop another party, and that 90% of those who did this did so in a bid to prevent the SNP winning the seat. Rob Johns, Professor in Politics at the University of Essex, said: "[W]e found a lot more switching than we had expected. The polls had suggested that not much was changing and obviously the overall election result was almost eerily similar to 2016. That can mean that nobody has changed their mind or it can mean lots of people have changed their mind – but these have cancelled out as people have moved in opposing directions. We found there was quite a lot more of that than we had expected." Voter demographics Data from Savanta ComRes: == Campaign spending ==

Nicola Sturgeon was nominated as First Minister by a vote held on 18 May 2021. Her cabinet was approved by the parliament two days later and thus the Third Sturgeon government, a minority government, was formed. On 3 August 2021, it was reported that a co-operation agreement between the SNP and the Greens was "on the brink of being finalised" and could see Green MSPs take ministerial positions in government. On 19 August, the power-sharing agreement between the two parties was announced. A deal that would see Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater made ministers was revealed on 26 August, subject to being voted upon by Green Party members. Two days later, members of both parties overwhelmingly voted in favour of the deal. == See also ==