Market2022 Castilian-Leonese regional election
Company Profile

2022 Castilian-Leonese regional election

A regional election was held in Castile and León on 13 February 2022 to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community. All 81 seats in the Cortes were up for election. This marked the first time that a Castilian-Leonese president exercised the legal prerogative to call a snap election.

Overview
Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Cortes of Castile and León was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions. Date The term of the of Castile and León expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 2 May 2023, setting the latest possible date for election day on 25 June 2023. The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the of Castile and León at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year after a previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. By 2021, the relationship between the two ruling coalition partners, the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs) had become strained to the point that President Alfonso Fernández Mañueco was considering to call a snap election for late in the year or early 2022, taking advantage of the momentum gained by the PP in opinion polls as a result of its victory in the 2021 Madrilenian regional election. Mañueco was also wary that the Cs internal crisis, which had seen a number of defections from the party, could see a successful motion of no confidence being mounted on him once the PSOE was able to table a new censure motion in March 2022, one year after a previous, unsuccessful one. In October 2021, it was hinted that Mañueco was considering an election to be held on either 28 November or 12 December, though it later transpired that an election in the spring of 2022 was more likely. Speculation on an early election in Andalusia,—initially hinted at a possible simultaneous electoral call, but Andalusian president Juan Manuel Moreno's announcement on 30 November that an election in Andalusia would not be held sooner than June 2022 meant that any prospective Castilian-Leonese snap election would be held earlier. This was finally confirmed on 20 December 2021 when Mañueco announced a snap election for 13 February 2022. Electoral system Voting for the was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence. Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (). The of Castile and León had three seats per each multi-member constituency—corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora—plus one additional seat per 45,000 inhabitants or fraction above 22,500. All were elected using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution. As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each constituency was entitled the following seats: The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution. ==Parties and candidates==
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition. Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election: In September 2021, citizen collectives of the so-called "Empty Spain" ( or España Vaciada), a coined term to refer to Spain's rural and largely unpopulated interior provinces, agreed to look for formulas to contest the next elections in Spain, inspired by the success of the Teruel Existe candidacy (Spanish for "Teruel Exists") in the November 2019 general election. By November 2021, it was confirmed that over 160 collectives and associations from about 30 Spanish provinces had committed themselves to finalizing the electoral platform before January 2022, and that it would be ready to contest any snap election in Castile and León. This was confirmed following Mañueco's announcement of the election date for 13 February 2022, Burgos Roots () platforms confirming their participation. On 27 December, Clean Plateau () and Aprodespa announced a candidacy of the Empty Spain in the province of Palencia, with a candidacy for Salamanca being announced the next day, and for Valladolid on 10 January. However, the platform ruled out standing in Ávila, León, Segovia and Zamora. ==Campaign==
Campaign
Timetable The key dates are listed below (all times are CET): • 20 December: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the president, after deliberation in the Regional Government. • 21 December: Formal dissolution of parliament and start of prohibition period on the inauguration of public works, services or projects. • 24 December: Initial constitution of provincial and zone electoral commissions with judicial members. • 27 December: Division of constituencies into polling sections and stations. • 31 December: Deadline for parties and federations to report on their electoral alliances. • 3 January: Deadline for electoral register consultation for the purpose of possible corrections. • 10 January: Deadline for parties, federations, alliances, and groupings of electors to present electoral lists. • 12 January: Publication of submitted electoral lists in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCyL); deadline for parties, federations, alliances, and groupings of electors to communicate their presidential candidates for the purpose of electoral debates. • 15 January: Deadline for non-resident citizens (electors residing abroad (CERA) and citizens temporarily absent from Spain) to apply for voting. • 17 January: Official proclamation of validly submitted electoral lists. • 18 January: Publication of proclaimed electoral lists in the BOCyL. • 19 January: Deadline for the selection of polling station members by sortition. • 27 January: Deadline for the appointment of non-judicial members to provincial and zone electoral commissions. • 28 January: Official start of electoral campaigning. • 3 February: Deadline to apply for postal voting. • 8 February: Start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication; deadline for CERA citizens to vote by mail. • 9 February: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voting . • 11 February: Last day of electoral campaigning; • 9 April: Deadline for the publication of definitive election results in the BOCyL. Party slogans Debates The electoral law of Castile and León provided for the presidential candidates of the parties having a parliamentary group in the to participate in, at least, two leaders' debates to be held during the electoral campaign. Only the PSOE, PP and Cs had parliamentary groups going into the 2022 election, meaning that parties such as Podemos and Vox were excluded from participating. Both debates were assigned to the regional broadcasting company (Radio Televisión de Castilla y León, RTVCyL) to be held on 31 January and 9 February. However, the national public broadcaster, RTVE, demanded to hold at least one of them. The regional electoral board conceded the first debate to RTVE. On 29 January, Cs's candidate Francisco Igea had a positive test for COVID-19, and requested a postponement of the debate. The electoral board decided that Igea would virtually attend the debate on 31 January while isolated. ==Opinion polls==
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. Graphical summary Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 41 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León. ; Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences. Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place. Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place. Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Castile and León. ==Voter turnout==
Voter turnout
The table below shows registered voter turnout during the election. Figures for election day do not include non-resident citizens, while final figures do. ==Results==
Results
Overall Distribution by constituency ==Aftermath==
Aftermath
Government formation Although the PP emerged as the largest party in the election, their vote share and vote totals decreased from the 2019 election to their worst historical result in the region, despite early polls initially predicting a comfortable victory for the party, with close to a majority of seats in the regional parliament. Mañueco had been accused throughout the campaign of triggering the election in an attempt to emulate Isabel Díaz Ayuso's victory in the 2021 Madrilenian election. On election night, Vox's national leader Santiago Abascal proclaimed his candidate, Juan García-Gallardo, as the region's next vice president, while hinting that his party would not be satisfied with less power than was given to Cs following the 2019 government negotiations, and that Vox would not support Mañueco "for free". Mañueco insisted in a PP minority government and warned Vox about "not taking a single step back" regarding women and LGBT rights. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez suggested that PSOE would be willing to consider abstaining in favour of Mañueco's government to stop Vox having influence in the region, and he demanded that, for PSOE to support them, PP must explain why they did not want to rely on the far-right's support as well as terminating all PP–Vox agreements throughout Spain at all levels and forever. In March 2022, PP and Vox formed a coalition government, with Vox taking three of ten ministerial positions including vice president for Juan García-Gallardo. Vox member Carlos Pollán was elected President of the Cortes of Castile and León, the position of speaker. The formation of the new government was endorsed by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the sole candidate in the PP's upcoming leadership election, although he said he would not repeat it on the national level. Donald Tusk, leader of the European People's Party of which the Spanish party is a member, condemned the pact as "a sad surprise... I hope that it's just an incident or accident, not a trend in Spanish politics". ==Notes==
tickerdossier.comtickerdossier.substack.com