2023 Belgorod Oblast incursions

Several attacks in Western Russia, primarily in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts, were reported since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022. Russia accused Ukraine of being responsible for these attacks. According to The Moscow Times, in June 2022, "Ukraine [had] not claimed responsibility for the attacks ... while not formally denying being behind them." Following an attack against Belgorod in April 2022, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, joked that these events were related to the establishment of a "Belgorod People's Republic". The information warfare spawned satirical calls to "hold independence referendum in Belgorod region". Calls and text messages from unknown numbers and telegram chats were sent to residents of the region: "They call us BNR, that is, the Belgorod People's Republic, in their Ukrainian chats. By analogy with the LNR and DNR", a local resident said in July 2022. In March 2023, the Russian Volunteer Corps, a Russian nationalist group fighting against the Russian government, claimed responsibility for a brief incursion into neighboring Bryansk Oblast. Late on 21 May 2023, Belgorod Oblast officials claimed that a quadcopter had dropped explosives on a government building in the village of Golovchino. == First raid ==

22 May On 22 May 2023, footage emerged on Russian Telegram channels showing an apparent military raid on the Russian border checkpoint in the Grayvoronsky District of Belgorod Oblast. He said there were explosions and drone attacks in the district. The Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps claimed responsibility for the incursion, announcing that the two groups working together had taken control of the villages of Kozinka, In this incursion participated the Polish Volunteer Corps, a Polish volunteer military unit created in mid-February of the same year. They would only confirm this on 4 June after posting images on Twitter proving their involvement; up until that point, there had been reports from Russian soldiers that some of the saboteurs spoke Polish. The Russian Volunteer Corps posted photos of their fighters in front of road signs for the settlement of Bezlyudovka in Belgorod Oblast, as well as and in neighboring Bryansk Oblast. On the evening of 22 May, Gladkov also said that the Belgorod regional government officials, together with the Ministry of Emergency Situations, was going from house to house in border villages to evacuate civilians, and that "most of the population" had been evacuated. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces began an emergency evacuation of nuclear ammunition stockpiles from the nearby Belgorod-22 facility. The Belgorod-22 site is Military Unit Number 25624 of the 12th Chief Directorate. Nuclear security expert at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, Pavel Podvig, was skeptical about the announcement of the movement of nuclear weapons, since such a maneuver could not go unnoticed by Western intelligence agencies. Despite the current status of the military unit to which the repository belongs, it would be impossible to establish the presence of nuclear weapons in it, Podvig said. The Rybar Telegram channel stated that nuclear weapons were not stored at this facility long before the raid. 23 May According to video reports, the Federal Security Service (FSB) office in the city of Belgorod was struck in a drone attack, nearly away from the "combat zone". The Freedom of Russia Legion posted footage showing ongoing fighting. Later, during the night of the same day, the Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko posted a picture on his Telegram channel showing five allegedly Russian opposition soldiers in front of the entrance sign of , a village in Kursk Oblast. It is unknown to which military unit these soldiers belonged and no official information was released about the incident. Aftermath On 24 May, governor Gladkov announced that anti-government forces were no longer in the region. He also said that the following districts had been attacked during the incursion: Borisovsky, Volokonovsky, Grayvoronsky, Krasnoyaruzhsky, Shebekinsky, and Yakovlevsky. He later announced that Russian authorities had created seven territorial defense battalions for the defense of the Belgorod region in the future. The leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Denis Kapustin (also Denis Nikitin or "White Rex"), said the group had left Russian territory after 24 hours, and that they were satisfied with the raid at a press conference given on Ukrainian territory. ==Second raid==

1–3 June On 1 June, the Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps said they had begun another raid into Belgorod Oblast. The Russian Defense Ministry said there were three attempted raids along the border in the Shebekinsky District by up to 70 "Ukrainian terrorists" with tanks and armored vehicles. It said that all were repelled and that at least 50 militants were killed, while four of their armored vehicles and a Grad multiple rocket launcher were destroyed. Belgorod governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said Ukraine's armed forces had shelled Shebekino with Grad rockets, damaging an administrative building. He said at least nine civilians had been wounded by shelling from Ukraine, and two others by a drone blast in Belgorod city. The RVC claimed that it attacked the Interior Ministry in Shebekino with Grad rockets. The Belarusian volunteer Terror Battalion participated in this second raid. This is shown by some images of members of the battalion carrying MANPADS published with the comment "Briefly about the emergency landings of military aircraft on the BPR [Belgorod People's Republic]". A video posted on Telegram showed the advance of Belarusian volunteers towards the territory of Belgorod Oblast. Previously, Radyyon Batulin, one of the commanders of the battalion, commented that "nobody canceled visa-free travel for Belarusians to Russia". The Terror Battalion was initially formed as a battalion part of the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment which ended up leaving the regiment and later joined the Belarusian Volunteer Corps. On 3 June, two civilians driving a car near Maslova Pristan were killed in an artillery strike. Governor Gladkov blamed Ukrainian forces, but the FRL blamed the Russian Army. 4 June – 15 June On 4 June, the FRL posted a video online calling for Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov to meet them "to discuss the current situation in the region and the future of Russia," in exchange for releasing two Russian soldiers they had captured. Gladkov said he would be willing to meet the group in Shebekino. The FRL leadership arrived at the checkpoint outside Shebekino at the agreed time, but Gladkov did not, claiming that the POWs had been executed. In response, the FRL said it would send the POWs to Kyiv. They accused Stesev and his subordinates of killing civilians in the Chechen wars, the Yugoslav Wars, the War in Abkhazia, and in Ukraine, and claimed that he had "systematically terrorized" the population of Belgorod Oblast. On 6 June, Gladkov claimed that the anti-government forces were no longer in the region, but the RVC said on 8 June that it was still in control of Novaya Tavolzhanka. By 15 June, Russian government soldiers claimed to have re-entered Novaya Tavolzhanka. ==Sporadic incursions (June–December 2023)==

On 17 June, there were still reports of anti-government forces operating in the Belgorod oblast, shelling pro-government positions. The number of evacuations of civilians from border regions was estimated at 6,500, with most of the civilians from Shebekino having left. On 19 June, Russian sources claimed that 7 civilians where wounded due to anti-government shelling in Belgorod. And on 22 June, the Russian ministry of Defense claimed to have used thermobaric weapons against partisans in the Oblast. During the Wagner Group rebellion on 24 June, it was noted by the Atlantic Council that partisans were still operating in Belgorod. In mid-July, the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence published a video showing Chechen volunteers ambushing a Russian military truck at Sereda, Belgorod, killing two Russian soldiers. They were members of the Separate Special Purpose Battalion. On 28 September, the Freedom of Russia Legion claimed that it had begun another raid into Belgorod Oblast. The Russian Astra Telegram channel also stated that Russian troops were battling pro-Ukrainian forces at the border. On 17 December 2023, pro-Ukrainian partisans launched another raid into Belgorod. According to a Russian official and other Russian as well as Ukrainian sources, the insurgents targeted the Morozovsk airbase with "mass drone strikes", while clashing with security forces at the village of Terebreno. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence subsequently claimed that a Russian "platoon stronghold" at Terebreno had been destroyed by the rebels. The Freedom of Russia Legion claimed responsibility for the raid, and stated that it had withdrawn from Russian territory after mining the eliminated "stronghold" at Terebreno. ==Casualties and losses==

Pro-Ukrainian forces , reportedly abandoned by pro-Ukrainian forces At a 24 May press conference by the RVC, Kapustin said two RVC fighters were wounded in the 23–24 May incursion. On 4 June, the Polish Volunteer Corps stated that they suffered no killed or wounded and that the unit successfully completed all its assigned tasks during the first raid. A Polish AMZ Dzik-2 IMV was also damaged and captured. The Russian Volunteer Corps said none of its fighters had been killed and that it had not lost equipment, and said that the military camouflage on clothing in a photo distributed by Russian officials did not match those of the RVC. Russian government sources released footage of what it said were several abandoned Western-made military vehicles that had been used by the pro-Ukrainian sources. At the 24 May press conference, Kapustin said his soldiers had seized weapons, an armoured personnel carrier, and taken prisoners before leaving Russian territory. The RVC also posted footage during the raid apparently showing the body of a dead Russian border guard, likely near the Kozinka border checkpoint. Russian authorities have downplayed the number of casualties they've taken in the incursions, keeping any figures they do have out of public hands. However, Russian soldiers sent to the Oblast report high casualties among the defense forces, mostly due to lack of supplies. The 1009th regiment stated they are struggling and even failing to achieve their goals due to lack of supplies an unverified video of a soldier claiming to be from the 138th Brigade stated that his unit suffered 80% losses (~1600 soldiers) during the fighting. ==Humanitarian impact and evacuations==

Russian officials have said at least 13 civilians have died since the beginning of the raids, and that over 50 have been injured. Thousands of residents of border towns have been evacuated. Shebekino, formerly a town of 40,000 inhabitants, was devastated during the second raid, with almost all the inhabitants fleeing. ==Analysis==

Motivation During the first raid, the Freedom of Russia Legion said their main goal was to "liberate" the region and create a "demilitarized zone" in Belgorod Oblast so that Russia could not attack Ukraine from that territory. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the raid an attempt by Ukraine "to divert attention" away from the Russian capture of Bakhmut. Ukrainian involvement Ukrainian officials denied involvement in the incursion. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Ukrainian government had "nothing to do with" the incursion, calling it a homegrown Russian "resistance movement". Andriy Yusov and other Ukrainian officials have denied any direct involvement by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and have said that the striking force was made up only of Russian citizens. The Freedom of Russia Legion has been described by the New York Times as "operating under the umbrella" of Ukraine's International Legion. Russian opposition politician Ilya Ponomarev also claimed the unit to be acting as part of the Ukrainian armed forces. Ukrainian officials said the Freedom of Russia Legion operates as part of Ukraine's "defense and security forces" while it is inside Ukraine, but acts independently if it is outside the country. He did say that Ukrainian military took in wounded RVC members, but that was the extent of support, saying that "Every decision we make ... beyond the state border is our own decision. Obviously, we can ask our [Ukrainian] comrades, friends for their assistance in planning." == Reactions ==

Ukraine Some Ukrainian officials compared the attack to Russia's use of "little green men" during the early stages of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Mykhailo Podolyak ironically Ukrainian social media accounts humorously compared the attackers to the pro-Russian separatists in Donbas. Most notably, Ukrainian sources began circulating a photo showing three soldiers who took part in the raid proclaiming a "Belgorod People's Republic" and holding a flag of the supposed republic. Internet memes about creating such an entity, a satire of the pro-Russian Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, spread on Ukrainian social media following the raid. These included jokes by the Russian insurgents in Russia themselves about holding a referendum in Belgorod Oblast for the formal establishment of the Belgorod People's Republic. Russia Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian president Vladimir Putin was informed about the raid. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Security Council of Russia, blamed the Ukrainian government for the attack and called for the "extermination" of the perpetrators. Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian military would respond more harshly to any further incursions. On 3 June, Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that after his Wagner units withdrew completely from Bakhmut, he would send the units to guard the border of Belgorod Oblast, regardless of orders from the Russian Ministry of Defense. He called Belgorod governor Gladkov "an uneducated, ill-prepared coward", and said Defense Minister Shoigu's lack of resolve had enabled "genocide" against the Russian people. On 5 June, Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic stated he would be willing to send 70,000 Chechen fighters to Belgorod to help protect the border, but had his offer declined by the "Russian commander-in-chief". Residents of Shebekino, when interviewed by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, "still [appeared] to be firmly in support of the campaign under way in Ukraine", but expressed "dismay and confusion" at the lack of helpful response or sympathy from the Russian government. He also acknowledged reports "circulating on social media and elsewhere" that U.S.-supplied weapons were used in the attack, but said the U.S. was skeptical of such reports. ==See also==