Venezuela announces referendum , the main proponent of the
2023 Venezuelan referendum On 23 October 2023, the National Electoral Council approved several issues, and the Constitutional Council of the Supreme Court of Justice officially confirmed it on 1 November 2023. The government of
Nicolás Maduro promoted a
consultative referendum in Venezuela for 3 December 2023 in which five questions were asked of citizens, among them, whether they agree to "oppose, by all means, in accordance with the law, Guyana's claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation, illegally and in violation of international law" and whether they would be in favour of giving Venezuelan nationality to the 125,000 inhabitants of the Essequibo. The government has criticised the "abuses of ExxonMobil" and the
United States Southern Command, Opposition leaders provided different responses to the referendum. Presidential candidate for the
opposition political coalition María Corina Machado assured that sovereignty was not consulted, but rather exercised, and asked to suspend the referendum to form a national team with the purpose of filing a claim with the ICJ, while
Manuel Rosales and
Henrique Capriles, both former opposition presidential candidates, were in favour. The referendum caused a
diplomatic crisis between both nations.
Reported military buildup In October 2023, it was reported that the Venezuelan military was building a
runway near the border with Guyana's Essequibo "to develop" the region. Guyana's president
Irfaan Ali responded by saying the country will not give up "an inch" of the region. Guyana asked for Venezuela to explain their troop buildup in the border, and the Venezuelan ambassador Carlos Amador Pérez Silva said that the troops were mobilised to curb illegal mining in the region. In the context of increasing tensions between the two countries, Guyana's main opposition party,
Alliance for Change, called on 4 November for a ban on Venezuelans with Guyanese citizenship from voting in elections, as well as not granting citizenship to more people from the neighbouring country. Representatives of both Venezuela and Guyana asked in a hearing held at the ICJ in mid-November 2023 that the Court recognise their sovereignty over the Essequibo. Guyana also requested that the referendum be repealed, alleging that Venezuela intended to annex the territory, a request that the Venezuelan government rejected. On 23 November, senior military officers from the
Guyana Defence Force and the
Brazilian Armed Forces met for a military exchange. Brazil has been a strong supporter of Guyana in the border dispute. Brazil is currently trying to establish mediation between both countries to avoid an armed conflict. Two teams from the
United States Department of Defense were scheduled to visit Guyana in late November. Reports from Brazilian intelligence in early December suggested an imminent military move by the
Venezuelan Army against Guyana in the coming days, raising concerns about regional stability and
territorial disputes in South America. The Brazilian foreign ministry,
Itamaraty, held a summit between foreign and defence ministers of South American countries on 22 November, wherein Venezuelan foreign minister Félix Osorio claimed Venezuela "may be forced by the people to take measures" On the same day, Brazil sent special envoy
Celso Amorim to Caracas, wherein he talked directly with Maduro, who told him there would be no war, but the Brazilian government remained worried, and Amorim warned that the situation could "spiral out of control". Amorim stated Brazil would "not accept any solution that is not peaceful". On 1 December, the
International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking action to change the status quo in the border dispute with Guyana. "The court observes that the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute is that Guyana administers and exercises control over that area," presiding judge Joan Donoghue said. "Venezuela must refrain from taking any action which would modify that situation," she added. On 4 December, Brazilian defence portal Defesa Net published an article detailing that an anonymous source from a Guyanaese officer claimed roughly 200 Venezuelan special forces had entered Guyanese territory disguised as civilians in order to conduct sabotage and other preparation operations. On 6 December, Venezuelan Foreign Affairs Minister
Yván Gil and Guyana
Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Hugh Todd had a phone call, at Guyana's request, and the countries agreed to "keep communication channels open", according to Venezuela's government.
Raising of the Guyanese and Venezuelan flags At the end of November 2023, the
President of Guyana,
Irfaan Ali, met with soldiers who guard the border between both countries. In a video released by the government Ali raised the
Guyanese flag at an event on the Pakarampa mountain in the Essequibo, near Venezuela's
Bolívar state, where he also took an oath of national loyalty. The governor of
Zulia,
Manuel Rosales, claimed that "Guayana Esequiba is one hundred percent Venezuelan territory," arguing that Guyana's actions violated the 1966 Geneva agreement, and criticised the fact that the UN and the
OAS did not speak out on the matter. Afterwards, Venezuelan government officials released a video where local indigenous people exchanged a Guyanese flag for a Venezuelan one. President Irfaan Ali assured that such replacement did not take place. In December, through
geolocation, the investigative journalism group
Bellingcat determined that the video was recorded near
Santa Elena de Uairén, in the Venezuelan
state of Bolívar and 185 kilometers from where Guyana raised its flag, and not in the Essequibo territory as originally claimed. The Venezuelan fact-checking group
Cazadores de Fake News reached the same conclusion in its own investigation, confirming with four sources in the area that the video was not recorded in the disputed area.
Referendum On 3 December, the Venezuelan government organised a referendum asking to support its position in the dispute. The
National Electoral Council initially reported that Venezuelans voted "yes" more than 95% of the time on each of the five questions on the ballot. International analysts and media reported that turnout had been remarkably low and that the Venezuelan government had falsified the results. Analysts also noted that the government could use the referendum to mobilise its popular support and neutralise the
opposition primaries success, as well as the growing popularity of its candidate
María Corina Machado.
Bharrat Jagdeo, vice president of Guyana, said in an interview that he was preparing for the worst and that the government is working with partners to strengthen "defence cooperation". In anticipation of the referendum, the
Commonwealth of Nations had also issued a statement offering its "full support" to Guyana and urged "all members of the United Nations" to respect the ICJ's decision. On 8 December, Maduro stated in a political rally that he had appointed several personnel to handle the incorporation of the Esequibo and signed several decrees, but he stated that this process would be completed in a timeframe "up until 2030".
Militarisation of the Brazilian border On 5 December, the Brazilian Army mobilised 20
Iveco LMV vehicles to join the newly activated 18th Mechanised Cavalry Regiment based in
Boa Vista, being expected to arrive in early January. The regiment, originally planned to be activated in 2026, was created from the preexisting 12th Mechanised Cavalry Squadron on 29 November. An additional 600 soldiers will be added to the newly created 18th Cavalry Regiment, and an armored task force composed of 28 armored vehicles was assembled. Brazilian defence minister
José Múcio said the presidency had ordered him to "bulletproof the border". The Brazilian military was also concerned that the situation would lead to the creation of additional American military bases in the region. Sources within the military also told reporters that they were detecting no suspicious movement along the Brazilian border, with the precaution of deterrence working there, but they believed Venezuela was more likely to invade from the sea. Brazil is expected to triple its military presence in the border, with much
materiel being moved thousands of kilometers from its
South and
Center-West regions. On 8 December, Brazilian President Lula warned Maduro against "unilateral measures" by Venezuela regarding Essequibo. On December 11, Múcio characterised the crisis as a "political maneuver", and stated Brazil would not allow Venezuela troops to use its territory "in any hypothesis". On 18 December it was announced that the Brazilian Army had sent hundreds of
MSS-1.2 anti-tank missiles to reinforce the border with Venezuela, sending the weapons would be a way of deterring a possible threat from the Venezuelan armored force.
Venezuela authorises development in Essequibo On 4 December,
National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela Strategic Commander Domingo Hernández Lárez made several posts on social media of Venezuelan military working on repairing or building new roads, bridges, airstrips and other infrastructure in the border with the Esequibo region, which he described as "our Guyanese routes". On 5 December, Venezuelan President
Nicolás Maduro announced that he would soon permit the exploitation of resources such as gas, oil, and mineral deposits within the Essequibo. He also announced local Essequibo subsidiaries of Venezuelan state owned companies
PDVSA and
CVG. On the same day, Brazilian President
Lula stated he'd make a presidential visit to Guyana next year, which analysts interpreted as signalling that Brazil would not tolerate Venezuelan military action. On 6 December, Lula announced a summit with special envoy
Celso Amorim and foreign minister
Mauro Vieira. The Brazilian Army reported to
CNN Brasil that it had detected an increased Venezuelan military presence along the border with Guyana, though it assessed that the buildup by itself still wasn't indicative of an imminent invasion. The Guyanese president told Brazilian media that President Lula assured him Brazil would support Guyana, and thanked him for Brazil's "mature" position, while characterising Venezuela as "reckless" and "unpredictable". He claimed they were working with the
United States Southern Command and expected "strong statements" to be made within the next 24 hours. The United States also announced military exercises with Guyanese forces.
Venezuelan arrest warrants and detentions The same day, the Venezuelan government issued fourteen arrest warrants against opposition members, including for three members from the team of opposition political candidate
María Corina Machado, accusing them participating in an alleged plan to sabotage the 3 December referendum, supposedly financed by Exxon Mobil. It also confirmed the detention of an American citizen, Savoi Janson Wright, accused of financing them. That night, president of the Venezuelan NGO
Súmate,
Roberto Abdul, who also helped with the organisation of the opposition presidential primaries, was detained by officials of the
Bolivarian Intelligence Service. The Venezuelan government also issued orders against opposition leaders and dissident Chavistas, including
Yon Goicoechea,
Juan Guaidó,
Julio Borges,
Andrés Izarra,
David Smolansky,
Lester Toledo,
Carlos Vecchio,
Leopoldo López and
Rafael Ramírez, accusing them of participating in a conspiracy to boycott and sabotage the referendum. According to the
Chief of Staff of the Guyanese military, Omar Khan, there were no indications the aircraft was shot down from the sky. Authorities had stated that there was "bad weather" in the area. Five GDF soldiers were killed and two survived.
US military involvement The
United States Southern Command said on 7 December that its forces would participate in joint operations beside the Guyana Defence Force (GDF) in an effort to improve collaboration with security measures. US statements also said that the United States "will continue its collaboration with the GDF in the areas of disaster preparedness, aerial and maritime security, and countering transnational criminal organizations" and that the North American nation "will continue its commitment as Guyana's trusted security partner and promoting regional cooperation and interoperability." Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Venezuelan defence minister, described the actions of the United States as a "provocation", saying that Venezuela "will not be diverted from our future actions for the recovery of the Essequibo."
Diplomatic discussions Prime Minister of
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Ralph Gonsalves issued letters on 9 December to presidents Ali and Maduro, saying his nation would host discussions on the conflict alongside President Lula and UN Secretary-General Guterres, writing "Let us all resolve to make this historic gathering a successful one. So much is at stake for our Caribbean and Latin American civilization." Ali and Maduro agreed to the talks, with a proposed date of 14 December being announced. Representatives from both nations reaffirmed their beliefs on the dispute; Venezuela continued its claims of sovereignty over the Esequiba region while Guyana said that a determination by the ICJ must be made. On 15 December, Brazilian Defence Minister José Múcio mentioned Brazil was prepared to "take more energetic measures if necessary" to guarantee Brazilian territorial integrity.
O Estado de S. Paulo reported that the
Boa Vista-based 1st Jungle Infantry Brigade had received dozens of units of the Brazilian-made
MSS-1.2 anti-tank guided missile. The early adoption of the ATGM, still in its evaluation stages, would seek to provide a solution to a lack of dedicated anti-tank capabilities in the Brazilian Army at the time of the border crisis.
UK military involvement On 17 December, United Kingdom's minister for the Americas and Caribbean
David Rutley visited Guyana, and said "I am in Guyana... to offer the UK's unequivocal backing to our Guyanese friends". Rutley also met with
ambassadors of the United States, France, Canada and the European Union to speak about international support for Guyana in the dispute. The UK announced on 24 December it was sending one warship () to the coast of Guyana without mentioning Venezuela. Venezuelan Defence Minister
Vladímir Padrino López said on social media that Venezuela would stay "on alert following provocations that put at risk the peace and stability of the Caribbean and our America." On 28 December, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro ordered over 5,600 Venezuelan military personnel to carry out "defensive" military exercises in response to the deployment of HMS
Trent to Guyana.
2024 Venezuelan troop buildup In response to perceived Venezuelan military buildups, Brazil reinforced its garrison in
Boa Vista by 600 personnel and 20 armored vehicles on February 2, 2024. On February 9, the
Center for Strategic and International Studies reported on construction works and a troop buildup taking place in a Venezuelan military base in the border between Venezuela and Guyana in
Ankoko Island. Videos from Venezuelan military social media accounts and
Maxar satellite imagery of the area in the weeks leading up to the January 25 meeting in Brasília showed the construction of a new jungle tank base taking place, as well as the presence of several assets such as
IAI Arava and
Mi-17 aircraft;
EE-11 Urutu,
Scorpion 90 and
Cadillac Gage Commando AFVs; and a Mabey Compact 200 bridge. The CSIS's Christopher Hernandez-Roy referred to the Venezuelan troop buildup as indicative of Maduro "pursuing a duplicitous policy". Venezuelan General Domingo Hernández Lárez, commander of the Strategic Operational Campaign of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces, ==Analysis and military capability assessments==