On March 9, at 3:53 a.m. CST, the
Storm Prediction Center issued a day 6 outlook over northeast
Texas, the
Ark-La-Tex region, and southeast
Oklahoma, with a 15% probability for severe weather. An upper-low was expected to traverse over the southwest states, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft along with surface dewpoints reaching into the 60s east of the
dryline and near southeast of the synoptic front across the southern plains to the
Ozarks. The next day on March 10, the coverage of the 15% outline expanded. On March 11, the medium range guidance models depicted a deep, positively-tilted upper
trough traversing and spreading over the
Western United States, with the troughing being anchored by a closed low over the lower
Colorado River basin, with moderately strong mid-level flow traversing across the
Southwest into the central and southern plains. A shortwave trough was expected to move northeasterly within a belt of stronger flow, albeit with some uncertainties with forecast timing, though the evolution of the surface low moving northeasterly ahead of the low and the
cold front moving across southern and
Central United States remained consistent. Before the cold front, a moist and unstable airmass and thunderstorms were forecasted to be along and ahead of the front, with the expected evolution being initiation at the triple point in the late morning to early afternoon hours, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft and buoyancy leading to the development of strong to severe thunderstorms, with the main hazards expected to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. On March 12, at 2:31 a.m. CST, an expansive slight risk was issued, stretching from Texas up to Eastern
Iowa, with a 15% probability for severe weather, with hatched areas of significant weather for the Ark-La-Tex region, and northern
Missouri, southern Iowa, and western
Illinois. A surface low was forecasted to propagate over the
Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri border region, with the cold front extending from the low across eastern
Kansas into the
Texas Hill Country. A large warm sector was expected ahead of the cold front, extending from the northern to southern Mississippi River valleys, to westward into the southern Plains, with showers and thunderstorms expected to be present in the warm sector, though early-morning storms weren't expected. The warm sector was expected to destabilize, with two areas of potential severe weather in the
Midwest and southern Plains. In the Midwest risk, dewpoints in the upper 50s were expected south of the warm front, with adequate low-level moisture and decent to strong buoyancy were expected in the early afternoon, with surface temperature reaching into the 70s along with cold-mid level temperatures resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level convergence could result in convective initiation and the development of supercells, with expectation of all hazards including tornadoes. On March 14, at 1:00 a.m. CDT, an enhanced risk for hail and tornado was issued, including a 10% risk for tornado for Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas, with a 5% risk for tornado across the mid-Mississippi Valley to Ohio and other parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri. Early morning showers and thunderstorms were expected, with most of them staying north of the warm front, with some threats of hail and damaging gusts. The early storms were expected to modulate the effective frontal zone and how severe the destabilization of the environment could be, lowering confidence for a supercell cluster, though the expansion of the steep, mid-level, lapse-rate plume, along with substantial deep-layer shear and
hodograph enlargement, led to the increase in the 5% tornado risk. == Tornado summary ==