In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several
forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s
Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's
Met Office, and
Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the amount of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular season. According to NOAA and CSU, the average hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), as well as a median
accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 71.04–123.14 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is the measure of the power of a tropical or
subtropical cyclone multiplied by the length of time it existed. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical or subtropical cyclones reaching wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher. NOAA typically describes a season as above-average, average, or below-average depending on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes can also be considered.
Pre-season forecasts On December 11, 2025, TSR released their first forecast for the season. They expected a near-normal season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 125 units, close to the thirty-year average. They noted historically low certainty in this forecast, with the main factors being potentially moderate
El Niño conditions arising in mid- to late-summer 2026, along with a reasonable certainty of warmer-than-average
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the season. On April 7, 2026, the
University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for an active season featuring 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 155 units. Noted in their forecast was similarities to the
2023 season, namely the possibility of exceptionally strong
El Niño conditions for the season, along with the 2026 SST outlook being only slightly lower than that of 2023. Two days later, CSU and TSR published their April forecasts, both calling for a slightly below-normal season, with CSU forecasting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 90 units, and TSR forecasting 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane with an ACE index of 66 units. This is due to the likelihood of robust El Niño conditions during the season, which will likely induce above-normal
wind shear across the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean during the season, despite some predictions calling for slightly above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. On April 16,
The Weather Channel (TWC) issued their forecast, also calling for a below average season with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes due to the predicted El Niño. On April 22,
North Carolina State University (NCSU) released their seasonal forecast, calling for an average season of 12–15 named storms, 6–9 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes, also forecasting for near-average activity in the Gulf of Mexico and below-average activity in the Caribbean Sea. On April 22, Mexico's
National Meteorological Service (SMN) issued its first forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-to near average, with 11–15 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes and 1–2 major hurricanes (category 3 and above on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). ==Storm names==