New Jersey has historically been blue at the federal level largely due to its densely populated urban centers while suburban areas generally support
Democratic candidates. Both major parties have seen success at the statewide level: Democrats control the state legislature while
Republicans previously controlled the governor's mansion after
Republican Chris Christie was sworn into office after his election victory in the
2009 New Jersey gubernatorial election. In the
2024 presidential election, Democrat
Kamala Harris was expected to easily win the state after
Joe Biden won it by 15.93% in the
2020 presidential election. However, Harris only won New Jersey by 5.91%, which was the narrowest margin Democrats have won in the state since
1992, where Clinton won by 2.37%. This was attributed to conservative shifts in Latino and minority voters in traditionally urban
Democratic strongholds, with less turnout from Democrats from
2020. In the
2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election, Democratic
U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill won by 14.36% despite expectations of a close race. According to the 2025 CNN New Jersey exit poll, Latino voters who trended
Republican in
2024 trended back Democrat in
2025, while urban and suburban voters who saw conservative shifts in
2024 helped boost Sherrill's large victory margin. == Democratic primary ==