, 1848 Climate shifts have driven multiple phases of sea-level rise and fall. Inflow rates from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya are affected by glacial melt rates at the rivers' headwaters as well as precipitation within the river basins; cold, dry climates restrict both processes. Geologically driven shifts in the course of the Amu Darya between the Aral Sea and the Sarykamysh basins and anthropogenic water withdrawal from Amu Darya and Syr Darya have caused fluctuations in the Aral Sea's water level. Artificial irrigation systems began in ancient times and continue to the present. According to
Sergey Tolstov's theory, once Amu Darya was connected to Caspian sea, but this connection was broken by people 2500 years ago to feed the Aral Sea and irrigation system in
Khorezm, more precisely in
Khiva and other cities in this region. The Aral Sea was part of the western frontier of the Chinese Empire during the
Tang dynasty. During
Mongol Invasion, Mongols destroyed the cities and waterworks, which led to changes in Amu Darya's route, or some of its branches, and refilling the
Lake Sarykamysh, that connected Caspian Sea again. Aral Sea region was divided between three
Mongol Hordes: the Jochi or
Golden Horde, the
Ilkhanids, and the
Chagatai. The Russian expedition of
Alexey Butakov performed the first observations of the Aral Sea in 1848. The first steamer arrived in the Aral Sea three years later. The Aral Sea fishing industry began with the Russian dealers Lapshin, Ritkin, Krasilnikov, and Makeev, which later formed major fishing unions.
Naval Russian naval presence on the Aral Sea began in 1847 with the founding of
Raimsk, soon renamed Fort Aralsk, near the mouth of the Syr Darya. As the Aral Sea basin is not connected to other bodies of water, the
Imperial Russian Navy deployed its vessels by disassembling them in
Orenburg on the
Ural River and transporting them overland to be reassembled at Aralsk. The first two ships, assembled in 1847, were the two-masted schooners
Nikolai and
Mikhail. The former was a warship; the latter a merchant vessel to establish fisheries. They surveyed the northern part of the sea in 1848, the same year that a larger warship, the
Constantine, was assembled. Commanded by Lt. Alexey Butakov (
Алексей Бутаков), the
Constantine completed the survey of the entire Aral Sea over the next two years. Exiled Ukrainian poet and painter
Taras Shevchenko participated in the expedition and produced a number of sketches. , 1979) In 1851 two newly built steamers arrived from Sweden. The geological surveys had found no coal deposits in the area so the Military Governor-General of Orenburg
Vasily Perovsky ordered an "as large as possible supply" of saxaul (
Haloxylon ammodendron) to be collected in Aralsk for the new steamers. Saxaul wood proved not to be a suitable fuel and in the later years the Aral Flotilla was provisioned, at substantial cost, by coal from the
Donbas. as part of the
Soviet government plan for
cotton, or "white gold", to become a major export, the Amu Darya river in the south and the Syr Darya river in the east were diverted from feeding the Aral Sea to irrigate the desert in an attempt to grow
cotton,
melons,
rice and
cereals. This plan was initially successful, and by 1988, Uzbekistan was the world's largest exporter of cotton. However to achieve these results farms relied heavily on
agro-chemicals, including
dioxins, which were used even after being banned. Farmers, including children, were negatively affected by these chemicals. Due to abuse, the soil crucially degraded. Large scale construction of irrigation canals first began in the 1930s and was greatly increased in the 1960s. Many canals were poorly built, allowing leakage and evaporation. Between 30 and 75% of the water from the
Qaraqum Canal, the largest in Central Asia, went to waste. By 1960, between of water each year was going to the land instead of the Aral Sea and the sea began to recede. From 1961 to 1970, the Aral's level fell an average of per year. In the 1970s the rate nearly tripled to per annum, and in the 1980s to per annum. The amount of water taken for irrigation from the rivers doubled between 1960 and 2000. In the first half of the 20th century prior to the irrigation, the sea's water level above sea level held steady at 53 m. By 2010, the large Aral was 27 m and the small Aral 43 m above sea level. The disappearance of the lake was no surprise to the Soviets, they expected it to happen long before. As early as 1964, Aleksandr Asarin at the
Hydroproject Institute pointed out that the lake was doomed, explaining, "It was part of the
five-year plans, approved by the
council of ministers and the
Politburo. Nobody on a lower level would dare to say a word contradicting those plans, even if it was the fate of the Aral Sea." The reaction to the predictions varied. Some Soviet experts apparently considered the Aral to be "nature's error", and a Soviet engineer said in 1968, "it is obvious to everyone that the evaporation of the Aral Sea is inevitable." On the other hand, starting in the 1960s, a
large-scale project was proposed to redirect part of the flow of the rivers of the
Ob basin to Central Asia over a gigantic canal system. Refilling of the Aral Sea was considered one of the project's main goals. However, due to its staggering costs and the negative public opinion in
Russia proper, the federal authorities had abandoned the project by 1986. From 1960 to 1998, the sea's surface area shrank by 60%, and its volume by 80%. In 1960, the Aral Sea had been the world's
fourth-largest lake with an area of and a volume of . By 1998, it had dropped to and eighth largest. Its salinity increased; having originally been 10 g/L, by 1990 it was at 376 g/L. In 2003, the South Aral further divided into eastern and western basins. The waters in the deepest parts of the sea were saltier and didn't mix with the top waters, so only the top of the sea was heated in the summer, resulting in faster evaporation than had been predicted. A plan was announced for the recovery of the North Aral Sea by building
Dike Kokaral, a concrete dam separating the two halves of the Aral Sea. In 2004, the sea's surface area was , 25% of its original size, and a nearly fivefold increase in salinity had killed most of its flora and fauna. Dike Kokaral was completed in 2005 and, as of 2006, some recovery of sea level had been recorded. File:Aral sea 1985 from STS.jpg|Aral Sea from space (north at bottom), August 1985 File:AralSea(1997)_NASA_STS085-503-119.jpg|Aral Sea from space (north at bottom), August 1997 File:Aral Sea Continues to Shrink, August 2009.jpg|Aral Sea from space (north at top), August 2009 File:The Shrinking Aral Sea Recovers 2010.jpg|Aral Sea in August 2010, with part of the eastern basin reflooded from heavy snowmelt. File:Aralsea tmo 2014231 lrg.jpg|Aral Sea completely loses its eastern lobe in August 2014 File:Aral Sea August 2017.jpg|Aral Sea from space, August 2017. Part of the eastern basin was reflooded from heavy snowmelt in 2015. File:Aral in April 2018 (Iss055e018638 lrg).jpg|April 2018 File:The Aral Sea (MODIS 2019-10-11).jpg|Aral Sea once again completely loses its eastern lobe in October 2019 File:Aral Sea 2021.jpg|August 2021 File:Aral Sea 2024-05-05.png|Further area reductions in western lakes, as captured in May 2024 File:The Aral Sea (21 Aug 2024).png|August 2024 == Impact on environment, economy, and public health ==