It has never been fully explained what motivated the attack: the gunmen claimed to have been acting on their own initiative, and despite abundant conspiracy theories, no convincing evidence surfaced to suggest that any political leader or party was behind the attack. Nevertheless, the killings left a leadership void in the political establishment. Conspiracy theories immediately flourished that the gunmen had been acting on orders to sabotage a Karabakh peace deal, but a decade on, the available evidence still pointed to the leading gunman being a loner with a grudge against the Armenian political elite. In an interview in April 2013, Rima Demirchyan, the widow of Karen Demirchyan, suggested that the shooting was commanded from outside of Armenia and that it was not an attempted coup, but rather an assassination. Former U.S. ambassador to Armenia
Marie Yovanovitch suggested in
Lessons From the Edge: A Memoir that the disagreements over Nagorno-Karabakh policy had "played a large role in the shooting.
Alleged involvement of Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan {{multiple image|image1=Robert Kocharyan's Interveiw, 2003.jpg|width1=180|caption1=
Robert Kocharyan, President at the time of the shooting Although the investigation did not find any considerable evidence linking Kocharyan to the Hunanyan group, many Armenian people believe that President
Robert Kocharyan and National Security Minister
Serzh Sargsyan were behind the assassination of Vazgen Sargsyan and other leading politicians. In January 2000, investigators alleged that several members of President Robert Kocharian's inner circle had been behind the October 27 shooting, promoting some opposition figures to call for Kocharian's resignation. However, Kocharyan gradually consolidated his power throughout the year to emerge as the most powerful figure in the country's leadership.
Albert Bazeyan stated in 2002 that "We have come to the conclusion that the crime was aimed at making Robert Kocharian's power unlimited and uncontrolled. By physically eliminating Karen Demirchyan and Vazgen Sargsyan, its organizers wanted to create prerequisites for Kocharyan's victory in the future presidential elections."
Alleged Russian involvement In late April 2005, in an interview to an Azerbaijani newspaper
Realniy Azerbaijan, the former Russian secret service agent
Alexander Litvinenko accused the
Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the
General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of having organised the Armenian parliament shooting, ostensibly to derail the peace process which would have resolved the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but he offered no evidence to support the accusation. In May 2005, the
Russian embassy in Armenia denied any such involvement, and described Litvinenko's accusation as an attempt to harm
relations between Armenia and Russia by people against the democratic reforms in Russia. The
Armenian National Security Service also denied the Russian involvement in the shootings. The NSS spokesman Artsvin Baghramyan stated "not a single fact or even a hint relating to Litvinenko's theory emerged during the trial." President
Robert Kocharyan's national security adviser, Garnik Isagulyan, called Litvinenko a "sick man." On October 27, 2012, the French-based Armenian political refugee and former Apostolic priest Artsruni Avetisysan (also known by his religious name Ter Girgor) gave an interview to
A1plus, in which he claimed that the Russian secret services had been behind the shooting. On May 7, 2013, in an interview to the same agency, Artsruni Avetisysan claimed the shooting was perpetrated by Lieutenant General Vahan Shirkhanyan, the Deputy Minister of Defense from 1992 to 1999 and the National Security Minister
Serzh Sargsyan. He insisted the shooting was assisted by the
Russian secret services in order to bring the "Neo-Bolshevik criminal clan" of
Serzh Sargsyan and
Robert Kocharyan into power.
Other foreign involvement allegations Ashot Manucharyan, one of the leading members of the
Karabakh Committee, the former Minister of Internal Affairs and
Levon Ter-Petrosyan's National Security Adviser and his close ally until 1993, without presenting any proof and having access to secret services, stated in October 2000 that Armenian officials were warned by a foreign country about the shootings. He also declared that "Western special services" were involved in the October 27 events. In Manucharyan's words, "the special services of the US and France are acting to destroy Armenia, and in this context, they are much likely to be involved in the realization of the terrorist acts in Armenia."
Disclaimer of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Nairi Hunanyan, the leader of the armed group, was an ex-member of the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun). According to the ARF representatives, Hunanyan was expelled from the party in 1992 for misconduct Some speculations have been made about the involvement of the ARF in the shootings.
Ashot Manucharyan stated in 2000 that he is much worried about the circumstance that "a number of Dashnaktsutyun party leaders are acting in the interest of the American foreign policy." ==Aftermath==