Ancient meteorology up to the time of Aristotle in
Savoie Early attempts at predicting weather were often related to prophecy and
divining, and were sometimes based on astrological ideas.
Ancient religions believed meteorological phenomena to be under the control of the gods. The ability to predict
rains and
floods based on annual cycles was evidently used by humans at least from the time of agricultural settlement if not earlier. Early approaches to predicting weather were based on
astrology and were practiced by priests. The
Egyptians had
rain-making rituals as early as around 3500 BC. The Samaveda mentions sacrifices to be performed when certain phenomena were noticed. The
ancient Greeks were the first to make theories about the weather. Many
natural philosophers studied the weather. However, as
meteorological instruments did not exist, the inquiry was largely qualitative, and could only be judged by more general theoretical speculations. Aristotle is considered the founder of meteorology. One of the most impressive achievements described in the
Meteorology is the description of what is now known as the
hydrologic cycle. His work would remain an authority on meteorology for nearly 2,000 years. The treatise
On the Universe (composed before 250 BC or between 350 and 200 BC) noted: After Aristotle, progress in meteorology stalled for a long time.
Theophrastus compiled a book on weather forecasting, called the
Book of Signs, as well as
On Winds. He gave hundreds of signs for weather phenomena for a period up to a year.
Meteorology after Aristotle Meteorology continued to be studied and developed over the centuries, but it was not until the Renaissance in the 14th to 17th centuries that significant advancements were made in the field. Scientists such as Galileo and Descartes introduced new methods and ideas, leading to the scientific revolution in meteorology. Speculation on the cause of the flooding of the Nile ended when
Eratosthenes, according to
Proclus, stated that it was known that man had gone to the sources of the Nile and observed the rains, although interest in its implications continued. In 25 AD,
Pomponius Mela, a Roman geographer, formalized the climatic zone system. In 63–64 AD,
Seneca wrote
Naturales quaestiones. It was a compilation and synthesis of ancient Greek theories. However, theology was of foremost importance to Seneca, and he believed that phenomena such as lightning were tied to fate. In 1021,
Alhazen showed that atmospheric refraction is also responsible for
twilight in
Opticae thesaurus; he estimated that twilight begins when the sun is 19 degrees below the
horizon, and also used a geometric determination based on this to estimate the maximum possible height of the
Earth's atmosphere as 52,000
passim (about 49 miles, or 79 km).
Adelard of Bath was one of the early translators of the classics. He also discussed meteorological topics in his
Quaestiones naturales. He thought dense air produced propulsion in the form of wind. He explained thunder by saying that it was due to ice colliding in clouds, and in Summer it melted. In the 13th century, Aristotelian theories reestablished dominance in meteorology. For the next four centuries, meteorological work by and large was mostly
commentary. It has been estimated over 156 commentaries on the
Meteorologica were written before 1650.
Roger Bacon was the first to calculate the angular size of the rainbow. He stated that a rainbow summit cannot appear higher than 42 degrees above the horizon. In the late 13th century and early 14th century,
Kamāl al-Dīn al-Fārisī and
Theodoric of Freiberg were the first to give the correct explanations for the primary
rainbow phenomenon. Theodoric went further and also explained the secondary rainbow. By the middle of the 16th century, meteorology had developed along two lines: theoretical science based on
Meteorologica, and astrological weather forecasting. The pseudoscientific prediction by natural signs became popular and enjoyed protection of the church and princes. This was supported by scientists like
Regiomontanus,
Leonard Digges, and
Johannes Kepler. However, there were skeptics. In the 14th century,
Nicole Oresme believed that weather forecasting was possible, but that the rules for it were unknown at the time. Astrological influence in meteorology persisted until the 18th century. In the 19th century, advances in technology such as the telegraph and photography led to the creation of weather observing networks and the ability to track storms. Additionally, scientists began to use mathematical models to make predictions about the weather. The 20th century saw the development of radar and satellite technology, which greatly improved the ability to observe and track weather systems. In addition, meteorologists and atmospheric scientists started to create the first weather forecasts and temperature predictions. In the 20th and 21st centuries, with the advent of computer models and big data, meteorology has become increasingly dependent on numerical methods and computer simulations. This has greatly improved weather forecasting and climate predictions. Additionally, meteorology has expanded to include other areas such as air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climatology. The advancement in observational, theoretical and computational technologies has enabled ever more accurate weather predictions and understanding of weather pattern and air pollution. In current time, with the advancement in weather forecasting and satellite technology, meteorology has become an integral part of everyday life, and is used for many purposes such as aviation, agriculture, and disaster management.
Instruments and classification scales In 1441,
King Sejong's son, Prince Munjong of Korea, invented the first standardized
rain gauge. These were sent throughout the
Joseon dynasty of
Korea as an official tool to assess land taxes based upon a farmer's potential harvest. In 1450,
Leone Battista Alberti developed a swinging-plate
anemometer, and was known as the first
anemometer. In 1607,
Galileo Galilei constructed a
thermoscope. In 1611,
Johannes Kepler wrote the first scientific treatise on snow crystals: "Strena Seu de Nive Sexangula (A New Year's Gift of Hexagonal Snow)". In 1643,
Evangelista Torricelli invented the
mercury barometer. In 1742,
Anders Celsius, a Swedish astronomer, proposed the "centigrade" temperature scale, the predecessor of the current
Celsius scale. In 1783, the first hair
hygrometer was demonstrated by
Horace-Bénédict de Saussure. In 1802–1803,
Luke Howard wrote
On the Modification of Clouds, in which he assigns
cloud types Latin names. In 1806,
Francis Beaufort introduced his
system for classifying wind speeds. Near the end of the 19th century the first
cloud atlases were published, including the
International Cloud Atlas, which has remained in print ever since. The April 1960 launch of the first successful
weather satellite,
TIROS-1, marked the beginning of the age where weather information became available globally.
Atmospheric composition research In 1648,
Blaise Pascal rediscovered that
atmospheric pressure decreases with height, and deduced that there is a vacuum above the atmosphere. In 1738,
Daniel Bernoulli published
Hydrodynamics, initiating the
kinetic theory of gases and established the basic laws for the theory of gases. In 1761,
Joseph Black discovered that ice absorbs heat without changing its temperature when melting. In 1772, Black's student
Daniel Rutherford discovered
nitrogen, which he called
phlogisticated air, and together they developed the
phlogiston theory. In 1777,
Antoine Lavoisier discovered
oxygen and developed an explanation for combustion. In 1783, in Lavoisier's essay "Reflexions sur le phlogistique", he deprecates the phlogiston theory and proposes a
caloric theory. In 1804,
John Leslie observed that a matte black surface radiates heat more effectively than a polished surface, suggesting the importance of
black-body radiation. In 1808,
John Dalton defended caloric theory in
A New System of Chemistry and described how it combines with matter, especially gases; he proposed that the
heat capacity of gases varies inversely with
atomic weight. In 1824,
Sadi Carnot analyzed the efficiency of
steam engines using caloric theory; he developed the notion of a
reversible process and, in postulating that no such thing exists in nature, laid the foundation for the
second law of thermodynamics. In 1716,
Edmond Halley suggested that
aurorae are caused by "magnetic effluvia" moving along the
Earth's magnetic field lines.
Research into cyclones and air flow In 1494,
Christopher Columbus experienced a tropical cyclone, which led to the first written European account of a hurricane. In 1686,
Edmond Halley presented a systematic study of the
trade winds and
monsoons and identified solar heating as the cause of atmospheric motions. In 1735, an
ideal explanation of
global circulation through study of the
trade winds was written by
George Hadley. In 1743, when
Benjamin Franklin was prevented from seeing a lunar eclipse by a
hurricane, he decided that cyclones move in a contrary manner to the winds at their periphery. Understanding the kinematics of how exactly the rotation of the Earth affects airflow was partial at first. Gaspard-Gustave Coriolis published a paper in 1835 on the energy yield of machines with rotating parts, such as waterwheels. In 1856,
William Ferrel proposed the existence of a
circulation cell in the mid-latitudes, and the air within deflected by the Coriolis force resulting in the prevailing westerly winds. Late in the 19th century, the motion of air masses along
isobars was understood to be the result of the large-scale interaction of the
pressure gradient force and the deflecting force. By 1912, this deflecting force was named the Coriolis effect. Just after World War I, a group of meteorologists in Norway led by
Vilhelm Bjerknes developed the
Norwegian cyclone model that explains the generation, intensification and ultimate decay (the life cycle) of
mid-latitude cyclones, and introduced the idea of
fronts, that is, sharply defined boundaries between
air masses. The group included
Carl-Gustaf Rossby (who was the first to explain the large scale atmospheric flow in terms of
fluid dynamics),
Tor Bergeron (who first determined how rain forms) and
Jacob Bjerknes.
Observation networks and weather forecasting . In the late 16th century and first half of the 17th century a range of meteorological instruments were invented – the
thermometer,
barometer,
hydrometer, as well as wind and rain gauges. In the 1650s natural philosophers started using these instruments to systematically record weather observations. Scientific academies established weather diaries and organised observational networks. In 1654,
Ferdinando II de Medici established the first
weather observing network, that consisted of meteorological stations in
Florence,
Cutigliano,
Vallombrosa,
Bologna,
Parma,
Milan,
Innsbruck,
Osnabrück, Paris and
Warsaw. The collected data were sent to Florence at regular time intervals. In the 1660s
Robert Hooke of the
Royal Society of London sponsored networks of weather observers.
Hippocrates's treatise
Airs, Waters, and Places had linked weather to disease. Thus early meteorologists attempted to correlate weather patterns with epidemic outbreaks, and the climate with public health. The arrival of the
electrical telegraph in 1837 afforded, for the first time, a practical method for quickly gathering
surface weather observations from a wide area. This data could be used to produce maps of the state of the atmosphere for a region near the Earth's surface and to study how these states evolved through time. To make frequent weather forecasts based on these data required a reliable network of observations, but it was not until 1849 that the
Smithsonian Institution began to establish an observation network across the United States under the leadership of
Joseph Henry. Similar observation networks were established in Europe at this time. The Reverend
William Clement Ley was key in understanding of cirrus clouds and early understandings of
jet streams.
Charles Kenneth Mackinnon Douglas, known as 'CKM' Douglas, read Ley's papers after his death and carried on the early study of weather systems. 19th-century researchers in meteorology were drawn from military or medical backgrounds, rather than trained as dedicated scientists. In 1854, the United Kingdom government appointed
Robert FitzRoy to the new office of
Meteorological Statist to the Board of Trade with the task of gathering weather observations at sea. FitzRoy's office became the
United Kingdom Meteorological Office in 1854, the second oldest national meteorological service in the world (the
Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in Austria was founded in 1851 and is the oldest weather service in the world). The first daily weather forecasts made by FitzRoy's Office were published in
The Times newspaper in 1860. The following year a system was introduced of hoisting storm warning cones at principal ports when a gale was expected. FitzRoy coined the term "weather forecast" and tried to separate scientific approaches from prophetic ones. Over the next 50 years, many countries established national meteorological services. The
India Meteorological Department (1875) was established to follow tropical cyclone and
monsoon. The Finnish Meteorological Central Office (1881) was formed from part of Magnetic Observatory of
Helsinki University. Japan's Tokyo Meteorological Observatory, the forerunner of the
Japan Meteorological Agency, began constructing surface weather maps in 1883. The
United States Weather Bureau (1890) was established under the
United States Department of Agriculture. The
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (1906) was established by a Meteorology Act to unify existing state meteorological services.
Numerical weather prediction In 1904, Norwegian scientist
Vilhelm Bjerknes first argued in his paper
Weather Forecasting as a Problem in Mechanics and Physics that it should be possible to forecast weather from calculations based upon
natural laws. It was not until later in the 20th century that advances in the understanding of atmospheric physics led to the foundation of modern
numerical weather prediction. In 1922,
Lewis Fry Richardson published "Weather Prediction By Numerical Process", after finding notes and derivations he worked on as an ambulance driver in World War I. He described how small terms in the prognostic fluid dynamics equations that govern atmospheric flow could be neglected, and a numerical calculation scheme that could be devised to allow predictions. Richardson envisioned a large auditorium of thousands of people performing the calculations. However, the sheer number of calculations required was too large to complete without electronic computers, and the size of the grid and time steps used in the calculations led to unrealistic results. Though numerical analysis later found that this was due to
numerical instability. Starting in the 1950s,
numerical forecasts with computers became feasible. The first
weather forecasts derived this way used
barotropic (single-vertical-level) models, and could successfully predict the large-scale movement of midlatitude
Rossby waves, that is, the pattern of
atmospheric lows and
highs. In 1959, the UK Meteorological Office received its first computer, a
Ferranti Mercury. In the 1960s, the
chaotic nature of the atmosphere was first observed and mathematically described by
Edward Lorenz, founding the field of
chaos theory. These advances have led to the current use of
ensemble forecasting in most major forecasting centers, to take into account uncertainty arising from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Mathematical models used to predict the long term weather of the Earth (
climate models), have been developed that have a resolution today that are as coarse as the older weather prediction models. These climate models are used to investigate long-term
climate shifts, such as what effects might be caused by human emission of
greenhouse gases. ==Meteorologists==