Short-term vs long-term climate benefits Regarding the issue of climate consequences for modern bioenergy, IPCC states: "Life-cycle GHG emissions of modern bioenergy alternatives are usually lower than those for
fossil fuels." Consequently, most of IPCC's GHG mitigation pathways include substantial deployment of bioenergy technologies. Some research groups state that even if the European and North American forest carbon stock is increasing, it simply takes too long for harvested trees to grow back. Bioenergy from sources with high payback and parity times take a long time to have an impact on climate change mitigation. They therefore suggest that the EU should adjust its sustainability criteria so that only renewable energy with carbon payback times of less than 10 years is defined as sustainable, for instance wind, solar, biomass from wood residues and tree thinnings that would otherwise be burnt or decompose relatively fast, and biomass from short rotation coppicing (SRC). The IPCC states: "While individual stands in a forest may be either sources or sinks, the forest carbon balance is determined by the sum of the net balance of all stands." IPCC also state that the only universally applicable approach to carbon accounting is the one that accounts for both carbon emissions and
carbon removals (absorption) for managed lands (e.g. forest landscapes.) When the total is calculated, natural disturbances like fires and insect infestations are subtracted, and what remains is the human influence. IEA Bioenergy state that an exclusive focus on the short-term make it harder to achieve efficient carbon mitigation in the long term, and compare investments in new bioenergy technologies with investments in other renewable energy technologies that only provide emission reductions after 2030, for instance the scaling-up of battery manufacturing or the development of rail infrastructure. Forest carbon emission avoidance strategies give a short-term mitigation benefit, but the long-term benefits from sustainable forestry activities provide ongoing forest product and energy resources. Most of IPCC's GHG mitigation pathways include substantial deployment of bioenergy technologies. Limited or no bioenergy pathways leads to increased climate change or shifting bioenergy's mitigation load to other sectors. In addition, mitigation cost increases.
Carbon accounting system boundaries Carbon positive scenarios are likely to be net emitters of CO2, carbon negative projects are net absorbers of CO2, while
carbon neutral projects balance emissions and absorption equally. It is common to include
alternative scenarios (also called "reference scenarios" or "counterfactuals") for comparison. The alternative scenarios range from scenarios with only modest changes compared to the existing project, all the way to radically different ones (i.e. forest protection or "no-bioenergy" counterfactuals.) Generally, the
difference between scenarios is seen as the
actual carbon mitigation potential of the scenarios. In addition to the choice of alternative scenario, other choices has to be made as well. The so-called "system boundaries" determine
which carbon emissions/absorptions that will be included in the actual calculation, and which that will be excluded. System boundaries include temporal, spatial, efficiency-related and economic boundaries. Many biomass-only combustion facilities are relatively small and inefficient, compared to the typically much larger coal plants. Further, raw biomass (for instance wood chips) can have higher moisture content than coal (especially if the coal has been dried). When this is the case, more of the wood's inherent energy must be spent solely on evaporating moisture, compared to the drier coal, which means that the amount of CO2 emitted per unit produced heat will be higher. This moisture problem can be mitigated by modern combustion facilities. Forest biomass on average produces 10-16% more CO2 than coal. However, focusing on gross emissions misses the point, what counts is the
net climate effect from emissions
and absorption, taken together.EU's Joint Research Centre has examined a number of bioenergy emission estimates found in literature, and calculated greenhouse gas savings percentages for bioenergy pathways in heat production, transportation fuel production and electricity production, based on those studies. The calculations are based on the attributional LCA accounting principle. It includes all supply chain emissions, from raw material extraction, through energy and material production and manufacturing, to end-of-life treatment and final disposal. It also includes emissions related to the production of the fossil fuels used in the supply chain. It excludes emission/absorption effects that takes place outside its system boundaries, for instance market related, biogeophysical (e.g. albedo), and time-dependent effects. The authors conclude that "[m]ost bio-based commodities release less GHG than fossil products along their supply chain; but the magnitude of GHG emissions vary greatly with logistics, type of feedstocks, land and ecosystem management, resource efficiency, and technology." Because of the varied climate mitigation potential for different biofuel pathways, governments and organizations set up different certification schemes to ensure that biomass use is sustainable, for instance the RED (Renewable Energy Directive) in the EU and the ISO standard 13065 by the International Organization for Standardization. In the US, the RFS (Renewables Fuel Standard) limit the use of traditional biofuels and defines the minimum life-cycle GHG emissions that are acceptable. Biofuels are considered traditional if they achieve up to 20% GHG emission reduction compared to the petrochemical equivalent, advanced if they save at least 50%, and cellulosic if the save more than 60%. The EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) states that the typical greenhouse gas emissions savings when replacing fossil fuels with wood pellets from forest residues for heat production varies between 69% and 77%, depending on transport distance: When the distance is between 0 and 2500 km, emission savings is 77%. Emission savings drop to 75% when the distance is between 2500 and 10 000 km, and to 69% when the distance is above 10 000 km. When stemwood is used, emission savings varies between 70% and 77%, depending on transport distance. When wood industry residues are used, savings varies between 79% and 87%. Since the long payback and parity times calculated for some forestry projects is seen as a non-issue for energy crops (except in the cases mentioned above), researchers instead calculate
static climate mitigation potentials for these crops, using LCA-based carbon accounting methods. A particular energy crop-based bioenergy project is considered carbon positive, carbon neutral or carbon negative based on the total amount of CO2 equivalent emissions and absorptions accumulated throughout its entire lifetime: If emissions during agriculture, processing, transport and combustion are higher than what is absorbed (and stored) by the plants, both above and below ground, during the project's lifetime, the project is carbon positive. Likewise, if total absorption is higher than total emissions, the project is carbon negative. In other words, carbon negativity is possible when net carbon accumulation
more than compensates for net lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. Typically, perennial crops sequester more carbon than annual crops because the root buildup is allowed to continue undisturbed over many years. Also, perennial crops avoid the yearly
tillage procedures (plowing, digging) associated with growing annual crops. Tilling helps the soil
microbe populations to
decompose the available carbon, producing CO2.
Albedo and evapotranspiration == Environmental impacts ==