England in the mid-14th century established England as a military power. It is impossible to establish with any certainty the exact number of inhabitants in England at the eve of the
Black Death, and estimates range from 3 to 7 million. The number is probably at the higher end, and an estimate of around 6 million inhabitants seems plausible. Earlier demographic crises—in particular the
Great Famine of 1315–1317—had resulted in great numbers of deaths, but there is no evidence of any significant decrease in the population prior to 1348. England was still a predominantly rural and agrarian society; close to 90 per cent of the population lived in the countryside. Of the major cities,
London was in a class of its own, with perhaps as many as 70,000 inhabitants. Further down the scale were
Norwich, with around 12,000 people, and
York with around 10,000. Politically, the kingdom was evolving into a major European power, through the youthful and energetic kingship of
Edward III. In 1346, the English had won a decisive battle over the
Scots at the
Battle of Neville's Cross, and it seemed that Edward III would realise his grandfather
Edward I's ambition of bringing the Scots under the
suzerainty of the English crown. The English were also achieving military success on the Continent. Less than two months before the Battle of Neville's Cross, a numerically inferior English army led by the king himself won a spectacular victory over the French royal forces at the
Battle of Crécy. The victory was immediately followed by Edward
laying siege to the port city of
Calais. When the city fell the next year, this provided the English with a strategically important enclave that would remain in their possession for over two centuries.
The Black Death The term "Black Death"—which refers to the first and most serious outbreak of the second pandemic—was not used by contemporaries, who preferred such names as the "Great Pestilence" or the "Great Mortality". It was not until the 17th century that the term under which we know the outbreak today became common, probably derived from Scandinavian languages. It is generally agreed today that the disease in question was
plague, caused by
Yersinia pestis bacteria. These bacteria are carried by
fleas, which can be transferred to humans through contact with
rats. Flea bites carry the disease into the
lymphatic system, through which it makes its way to the
lymph nodes. Here the bacteria multiply and form swellings called
buboes, from which the term
bubonic plague is derived. After three or four days the bacteria enter the bloodstream, and infect organs such as the
spleen and the
lungs. The patient will then normally die after a few days. A different strain of the disease is
pneumonic plague, where the bacteria become airborne and enter directly into the patient's lungs. This strain is far more virulent, as it spreads directly from person to person. These types of infection probably both played a significant part in the Black Death, while a third strain was more rare. This is the
septicaemic plague, where the flea bite carries the bacteria directly into the blood stream, and death occurs very rapidly. A study reported in 2011 of skeletons exhumed from the Black Death cemetery in
East Smithfield,
London, found
Yersinia pestis DNA. An archaeological dig in the vicinity of
Thornton Abbey in Lincolnshire was reported in the science section of The Guardian for 30 November 2016, not only confirming evidence of the
Y. pestis DNA in the human remains exhumed there but also dating the remains to mid-1349.
Genotyping showed that it was [at that time] a newly evolved strain, ancestor of all modern strains and proved the Black Death was bubonic plague. Modern medical knowledge suggests that because it was a new strain, the human immune system would have had little or no defence against it, helping to explain the plague's virulence and high death rates. The Black Death seems to have originated in
Central Asia, where the
Y. pestis bacterium is endemic in the
rodent population. It is unknown exactly what caused the outbreak, but a series of natural occurrences likely brought humans into contact with the infected rodents. The epidemic reached
Constantinople in the late spring of 1347, through
Genoese merchants trading in the
Black Sea. From here it reached
Sicily in October that same year, and by early 1348 it had spread over the entire Italian mainland. It spread rapidly through France, and had reached as far north as Paris by June 1348. Moving simultaneously westward, it arrived in the English province of
Gascony around the same time. ==Progress of the plague==