If enacted, the rule change would result in $36.7 billion per year in additional tax revenue ($367 billion over the next decade), according to a January 2012 analysis by the
Tax Foundation, a
think tank. These figures assume that the 2001/2003/2010 tax cuts are not extended. If the 2001-2010 tax cuts do not expire as scheduled, estimated Buffett Rule revenues would total $162 billion over the decade. An alternative study released that same month by the
Citizens for Tax Justice, a
liberal think tank which favors the change, stated that the change would add $50 billion per year in tax revenue ($500 billion over the decade). The
United States Congress Joint Committee on Taxation released a letter in March 2012 estimating that the Buffett Rule would raise $46.7 billion over the next decade. The divergent estimates come about because of different assumptions about the details of the Buffett Rule. For example, the Joint Committee on Taxation assumes that many high-income taxpayers would reduce the amount of capital gains realized in one year to fall beneath the Buffett Rule threshold. The estimated $47 billion would offset by 0.7% the $6.4 trillion increase in spending over the next decade estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, based on President Obama's 2013 budget plan. Using the higher estimate from the Tax Foundation, the estimated $367 billion would offset by 5.7% the $6.4 trillion spending over the next decade. The 2013 budget proposed by the Obama administration stated that the Buffett Rule should replace the
Alternative Minimum Tax. The Joint Committee on Taxation calculated that the Buffett Rule plus the repeal of the Alternative Minimum Tax would increase the deficit by $793.3 billion in the next decade. The $793.3 billion loss projected did not take into account additional proposed measures, such as incremental increases in retirement age and payroll tax lifetime contributions raised to $190,000 by 2020, about $22,000 higher than it would be under current law. Part of the reason for the inequality in taxation is that revenue from long-term
capital gains is taxed at a maximum rate of 23.8%. It's not entirely clear how many individuals would be affected by the change. An October 2011 study by the
Congressional Research Service found that a 30% minimum tax rate rule would mean up to 200,000 taxpayers, equivalent to 0.06% of all U.S. citizens, paying more. ==Reactions and public opinion==