Climate change in Mexico

Temperature and precipitation The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.6 °C in Mexico since 1960. and "highly vulnerable" to climate change. Climate change models, while highly variable, have projected an increase in the variation and intensity of precipitation (i.e. floods and droughts) for the climate of Mexico. The largest changes in precipitation are anticipated to occur during the summer months, especially in southern Mexico. Precipitation is expected to decrease by −3% to −15% by 2090 for the country as a whole. Regionally, precipitation changes may be anywhere between −60% and +8%. Changes in cloud forest distributions Mountain cloud forests, especially in the Michoacán, act as dispersal corridors for many species that travel between habitats. These forests are highly subject to human disturbances such as mining and deforestation. A large amount of land in Mexico is already designated as protected areas, as such, these conservation areas are refugia for a number of threatened species. In 2016, research was conducted to determine which butterfly species were moving either up or down the mountain range. As an indicator species, bats can provide researchers useful information on the degree and extent of climate related species responses. Many of these small mammals are known to inhabit tropical areas of Mexico, however, it is these tropical dry ecosystems that are highly subject to the effects of land-use change and climate change, making small mammals particularly vulnerable. This study of breeding bird communities in Mexico found that species were trending higher in altitude and towards the poles. In order to collect his data, Flesch used techniques that had been used by previous researchers and conducted an observational survey to determine biodiversity values. From the collected data and historical climate data, Flesch found that some lowland species moved north and others moved east to higher altitudes. == Impacts on people ==

Economic Impacts Agriculture in Mexico City. In 2017, an estimated seven million people were employed in the agricultural sector in Mexico. Climate change has caused many people in Mexico who depend on agriculture for employment to experience economic insecurity. "Wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O3 impact," according to a July 2019 article. In the Yucatán Peninsula, the rise in temperature is affecting crop production. Over the past 15 years until 2010, a Mayan village in Cancún, Tabi, experienced a 50-60% reduction in crop yield. Additionally, climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. Farmers are finding it more difficult to predict rainfall, which if predicted wrong can waste "an entire season's worth of seeds". Drying and warming trends are altering and shifting climatic zones and agricultural environments worldwide, and Mexico is no exception. Scientists also expect that certain insect pests and plant pathogens will survive and reproduce more often due to warming temperatures and are likely to invade new regions. Highland farmers and the rural poor are especially vulnerable to these climatic shifts. Conversely, more intense rainfall events will damage crop production. Higher temperatures are expected to increase evapotranspiration rates, leading to drying trends in soil moisture. An absolute decline of 883,200 t. in maize annual production is estimated to occur within this timeframe. and thousands of regionally adapted maize varieties. Maize diversity in Mexico continues to be maintained and managed by smallholder farmers who participate in traditional seed sharing networks. Maize landraces in Mexico are conserved in place, or in-situ, by farmers who continue to grow them in their fields. Commercial maize seed is planted on less than one-fourth of Mexico's 8 million hectares of arable land. == Mitigation and adaptation ==

Carbon capture and storage Adaptation strategies Policies and legislation In 2012, Mexico passed a comprehensive climate change bill, a first in the developing world, that has set a goal for the country to generate 35% of its energy from clean energy sources by 2024, and to cut emissions by 50% by 2050, from the level found in 2000. During the 2016 North American Leaders' Summit, the target of 50% of electricity generated from renewable sources by 2025 was announced. Various climate mitigation efforts have been implemented throughout the country. Mexico has been considered a leader in climate mitigation and climate adaptation. Paris Agreement The Paris agreement is a legally binding international agreement, its main goal is to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) are the plans to fight climate change adapted for each country. Every party in the agreement has different targets based on its own historical climate records and country's circumstances and all the targets for each country are stated in their NDC. The NDC target regarding México against climate change and greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris agreement are the following: • Reach a zero-net deforestation rate by 2030. • 55% reduction of Greenhouse gases by domestic binding target without contribution from international credits, until 2030 compared to 1990. • Gases covered in reduction: Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), Hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs), Perfluorinated compound (PFCs) and Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). • Black carbon emission reduction by 51% by 2030 compared to a baseline under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. • Additionally, as a conditional contribution, Mexico could increase its reductions up to 36% for GHG and 70% for black carbon. Strategy to achieve NDC's Every country has different ways to achieve the established goals depending on his size, history and resources. In the case of México, the government has applied the following rules to support the NDC's climate change plan: • Encourage eco-friendly consumption practices, conservation of natural resources and a massive recuperation of biocultural landscapes. • Provide founding mechanisms that mitigate uncooperative impacts of climate change. Particularly on the primary productive sector. • Strengthen environmental strategic instruments and execute actions to preserve, restore and manage continental ecosystems, increasing their ecological connectivity. • Plan and implement measures that come up with to control desertification and enrich the soil conservation.. • Deeply care of the sea conditions, implementing actions for the conservation and restoration of the seas and oceans to enhance their resilience and preserve the different ecosystems inside them. • Enforce the potable water management, ensuring quantity and quality of water in human settlements. Also, increasing the treatment of industrial and urban wastewater, promoting hydrological environmental services, through the protection of watersheds with special attention to nature-based alternatives. • Recommended climate adaptation strategies for coffee production in Mexico include (1) promoting farming practices that increase biodiversity, such as agroforestry, which provides protection against extreme weather events and allows for product diversification, (2) diversifying farmer incomes to mitigate risks from climate and market volatility, and (3) enabling markets that support sustainable coffee growing practices, among others. Shade-grown coffee (typically with Coffea arabica in Mexico) provisions critical ecosystem services: pollination and hydrological services, wildlife habitat, and pest and erosion control. However, there is concern that hotter growing conditions and irregular rainfall patterns will cause a decline in coffee quality and hence profitability, propelling farmers to abandon shade-grown coffee altogether. the longstanding lack of acceptance of transgenic varieties by Mexican farmers; Participatory maize breeding, that is the inclusion of farmers in the formal breeding process, may hold considerable potential for climate change adaptation in Mexico. • The Mexican government's climate change program explicitly identifies "the adoption and implementation of sustainable agriculture" as a key adaptation strategy. Sustainable agriculture can take many forms. One type of strategy that has been proposed includes changing farmers' agricultural practices. For example, changing the timing of irrigation and crop planting, introducing new landraces and cultivars by extending seed-sharing networks, and adopting biodiversity-friendly farming practices that increase agroecosystem resilience. Evidence suggests that smallholder farmers in southern Mexico have begun adapting their agricultural practices due to climate change, by, for example, delaying crop plantings and planting a diversity of landrace varieties. == References ==