MarketColour revolution
Company Profile

Colour revolution

The colour revolutions are a series of often non-violent protests and accompanying changes of government and society taking place in post-Soviet states and the former Yugoslavia during the 21st century. The aim of the colour revolutions is to establish Western-style democracies. They were primarily triggered by election results widely viewed as falsified. The colour revolutions are marked by the use of the internet as a method of communication, as well as a strong role of non-governmental organizations in the protests.

Background
A definition of "colour revolution" suggested by Pavel Baev is "A mass protest or an unarmed uprising aimed at replacing, through elections, the sitting government that represents a semi/quasi-democratic regime." He noted that this definition was deliberately vague, but the revolutions did not target any reorganization of society or redistribution of property, had a non-violent nature, and a close connection with elections. Student movements The first of the student movements was Otpor! ('Resistance!') in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, founded at Belgrade University in October 1998 and began protesting against President Slobodan Miloševic during the Kosovo War. Most of them were already veterans of anti-Milošević demonstrations such as the 1996–97 protests and the 9 March 1991 protest. Many of its members were arrested or beaten by the police. Despite this, during the presidential campaign in September 2000, Otpor! launched its Gotov je (He's finished) campaign that galvanized Serbian discontent with Milošević and resulted in his defeat. Members of Otpor! have inspired and trained members of related student movements, including Kmara in Georgia, PORA in Ukraine, Zubr in Belarus, and MJAFT! in Albania. These groups have been explicit and scrupulous in their non-violent resistance, as advocated and explained in Gene Sharp's writings. == Successful protests ==
Successful protests
Serbia burning during the 2000 Bulldozer Revolution In the 2000 Yugoslavian general election, activists that opposed the government of Milošević created a unified opposition and engaged in civic mobilization through get-out-the-vote campaigns. This approach had been used in other parliamentary elections in Bulgaria (1997), Slovakia (1998), and Croatia (2000). However, election results were contested with the Federal Election Commission announcing that opposition candidate Vojislav Koštunica had not received the absolute majority necessary to avoid a runoff election despite some political sources believing he had earned nearly 55% of the vote. Discrepancies in vote totals and the incineration of election documents by authorities lead the opposition alliance to accuse the government of electoral fraud. Protests erupted in Belgrade, culminating in the overthrow of Slobodan Milošević. The demonstrations were supported by the youth movement Otpor!, some of whose members were later involved in revolutions in other countries. These demonstrations are usually considered to be the first example of the peaceful revolutions that followed in former Soviet states. Despite the nationwide protesters not adopting a colour or a specific symbol, the slogan "Gotov je" () become a defining symbol in retrospect, celebrating the success of the protests. The protests have come to be known as the Bulldozer Revolution due to the use of a wheel loader that protesters drove into the building used by Radio Television of Serbia, which was the main broadcast arm of Milošević's government. Georgia Adjara Ukraine Kyrgyzstan (2005) Moldova during the April 2009 Moldovan parliamentary election protests There was civil unrest, described by some as a revolution, European electoral observers had concluded that there was "undue administrative influence" in the election. There had also been anger at president Vladimir Voronin, who had agreed to step down as term limits in the constitution required but who then said he would retain a key role in politics, leading to fears that there would be no real change in power. The government attempted to discredit the protests by claiming foreign involvement of Romania, but little evidence existed which suggested this was the case. Some of the chants protesters were heard to say were "We want Europe", "We are Romanians" and "Down with Communism". Amnesty International and the BBC reported on numerous cases of torture and ill-treatment and brutality towards protesters. Russia backed and supported the ruling Moldovan communist government. Analysts observed that the protests appeared to be spontaneous and that they partly originated from protesters dislike of the government's increasing compliance with Russia. One of the key demands of the protests was achieved when a recount of votes in the election was accepted and ordered by president Voronin. Then, in July 2009 a new election was held in which opposition parties won a slight majority of the vote, which was seen as a decisive success for the four pro-Western, pro-European parties. One of the factors believed to have led to the opposition victory was the anger at the way the communist government had handled the April protests. North Macedonia In 2016, due to perceived authoritarian actions of the government mass protests began in the Republic of Macedonia against the ruling VMRO-DPMNE party. The protests, referred to as the Colorful Revolution (), were a turning point in Macedonian politics, with the nationalist conservative policies of the previous establishment being replaced with reconciliatory policies towards Bulgaria and Greece and the EU and NATO path of Republic of Macedonia. Armenia == Unsuccessful protests ==
Unsuccessful protests
Belarus Jeans Revolution in Minsk during the Jeans Revolution By March 2006, authoritarian and pro-Russian president Alexander Lukashenko had ruled Belarus for twelve years, and was aiming for a third term after term limits were cancelled by a dubious referendum in 2004 that was judged to not be free and fair internationally. Lukashenko had faced widespread international criticism for crushing dissent, neglecting human rights and restricting civil society. The main challenger to Lukashenko in the election was Alexander Milinkevich, who advocated liberal democratic values and who was supported by a coalition of the major opposition parties. The regime also further limited the freedoms of independent and foreign journalists, with it being noted by analysts that Lukashenko was attempting to prevent a repeat of the popular uprisings which had ousted authoritarian governments in the Georgian and Ukrainian colour revolutions. As had previously been the case, Russia generally supported the authoritarian Belarusian authorities, with some top-level Russian officials openly declaring their wish for a Lukashenko victory. Lukashenko was contentiously declared the winner of the election, with official results granting him 83% of the vote. International monitors severely criticised the legitimacy of the poll. Immediately after the official results were announced, 30,000 protested in the capital of Minsk. Thousands of protestors then maintained a tent protest camp on October Square for several days and nights, which failed to be broken up by police and indicated that the opposition had gained a foothold. The opposition originally used as a symbol the white-red-white flag of Belarus prior to 1995; the movement has had significant connections with that in neighbouring Ukraine. During the Orange Revolution, some white-red-white flags were seen being waved in Kyiv. During the 2006 protests, some called it the "Jeans Revolution" or "Denim Revolution", blue jeans being considered a symbol for freedom. Some protesters cut up jeans into ribbons and hung them in public places. Lukashenko had previously indicated his plans to crush any potential election protests, saying: "In our country, there will be no pink or orange, or even banana revolution." On 24 February 2005, he said, "They [the West] think that Belarus is ready for some 'orange' or, what is a rather frightening option, 'blue' or 'cornflower blue' revolution. Such 'blue' revolutions are the last thing we need". On 19 April 2005, he further commented: "All these coloured revolutions are pure and simple banditry." Lukashenko later himself apparently admitted that the 2006 election was rigged, being quoted in Belarusian media as saying: "last presidential elections were rigged; I already told this to the Westerners. [...] 93.5% voted for the President Lukashenko [sic]. They said it's not a European number. We made it 86. This really happened. And if [one is to] start recounting the votes, I don't know what to do with them. Before the elections they told us that if we showed the European numbers, our elections would be accepted. We were planning to make the European numbers. But, as you can see, this didn't help either." 2020 Belarusian presidential election After the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, there were another wave of mass protests to challenge Lukashenko's authority. The protests started claiming fraud after incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected. The main opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya declared herself the winner, saying that she won by a large margin. She then set up the "Coordination Council", which was recognized as the legitimate interim government by the European Parliament. As of December 2020, some of the media states say that the revolution failed and that Lukashenko managed to prevent a repeat of the Euromaidan. Russia In September 2011, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who had ruled for four years in a more liberal direction than his predecessor Vladimir Putin, declared that Putin would run again in the upcoming presidential election. Putin had previously had to step down and make way for Medvedev to become president in 2008 due to limits on consecutive presidential terms, but the plans for his return were now made public. In November, Putin suffered a notable humiliation when he was loudly booed by the 20,000 strong crowd when attending and speaking at a public and televised fight bout, which indicated that there was opposition to him again returning to the presidency. The protests began on 4 December 2011 in the Russian capital of Moscow against the election results, leading to the arrests of over 500 people. On 10 December, protests erupted in tens of cities across the country; a few months later, they spread to hundreds both inside the country and abroad. The protests were described as "Snow Revolution". It derives from December—the month when the revolution had started—and from the white ribbons that the protesters wore. The focus of the protests were the ruling party, United Russia, and Putin. Protests intensified after Putin dubiously won the 2012 Russian presidential election by a preposterous margin. Video footage was discovered showing examples of vote rigging, such as an individual secretly and repeatedly feeding ballot papers into a voting machine. Boris Nemtsov, one of the leaders of the protest movement, was later assassinated with the apparent involvement of the Russian security services (and the possible involvement of Putin himself) in 2015. Vladimir Kara-Murza, another key figure in the protests, later survived suspected poisonings in 2015 and 2017 before being imprisoned for 25 years on charges widely considered politically motivated in 2022. Ilya Yashin, another key leader of the protests, was likewise another figure convicted on politically-motivated charges after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Protest figure Dmitry Bykov was also poisoned in 2019, having been trailed by the same FSB agents who poisoned Navalny in 2020. == Opposition ==
Opposition
International geopolitics scholars Paul J. Bolt and Sharyl N. Cross state that "Moscow and Beijing share almost indistinguishable views on the potential domestic and international security threats posed by colored revolutions, and both nations view these revolutionary movements as being orchestrated by the United States and its Western democratic partners to advance geopolitical ambitions." In Russia According to Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russian military leaders view the "colour revolutions" () as a "new US and European approach to warfare that focuses on creating destabilizing revolutions in other states as a means of serving their security interests at low cost and with minimal casualties." Government figures in Russia, such as Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (in office from 2012 to 2024) and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (in office from 2004), have characterized colour revolutions as externally-fuelled acts with a clear goal of influencing the internal affairs that destabilize the economy, conflict with the law and represent a new form of warfare. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in November 2014 that Russia must prevent any colour revolutions in Russia: "We see what tragic consequences the wave of so-called colour revolutions led to. For us, this is a lesson and a warning. We should do everything necessary so that nothing similar ever happens in Russia". In December 2023 Putin stated that "the so-called color revolutions" had "been used by the Western elites in many world regions more than once" as "methods of such destabilization". He added "But these scenarios have failed to work and I am convinced will never work in Russia, a free, independent and sovereign state." In the aftermath of the colour revolutions, the term "colour revolution" has been used as a pejorative term to refer to protests which are believed to be a result of influence by foreign countries. Euromaidan, the 2018 Armenian revolution, the 2019 protests in Georgia, the 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests, and the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests have been described by pro-Kremlin outlets as being "colour revolutions" aimed at destabilising the respective governments of each country. The 2015 policy white paper "China's Military Strategy" () by the State Council Information Office said that "anti-China forces have never given up their attempt to instigate a 'color revolution' in this country." In 2018, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping accused unnamed foreign forces of attempting to plot a colour revolution. In September 2022, at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Xi Jinping stated that the group must prevent "external forces" from promoting colour revolutions. == Pattern of revolution ==
Pattern of revolution
Michael McFaul identified seven stages of successful political revolutions common in colour revolutions: • A semi-autocratic rather than fully autocratic regime • An unpopular incumbent • A united and organized opposition • An ability to quickly drive home the point that voting results were falsified • Enough independent media to inform citizens about the falsified vote • A political opposition capable of mobilizing tens of thousands or more demonstrators to protest electoral fraud • Divisions among the regime's coercive forces == See also ==
tickerdossier.comtickerdossier.substack.com