A
psychological research study by Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter found that people turned to a cataclysmic
world view after they had repeatedly failed to find meaning in mainstream movements.
Leon Festinger and his colleagues had observed members of the group for several months, and recorded their conversations both prior to and after a failed prophecy from their charismatic leader. The group had organized around a belief system which foretold that a majority of the
Western Hemisphere would be destroyed by a cataclysmic flood on December 21, 1955. Their work was later published in the 1956 book
When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World.
Social scientists have found that while some group members will leave after the date for a doomsday prediction by the leader has passed uneventfully, others actually feel their belief and commitment to the group strengthened. Often when a group's doomsday prophecies or predictions fail to come true, the group leader will simply set a new date for impending doom, or predict a different type of catastrophe on a different date. Niederhoffer and Kenner say: "When you have gone far out on a limb and so many people have followed you, and there is much '
sunk cost,' as economists would say, it is difficult to admit you have been wrong." Festinger and other researchers have attempted to explain the commitment of members to their doomsday cult after the leader's prophecies have proven false. Festinger attributed this phenomenon to the coping method of
dissonance reduction, a form of
rationalization. The common-held belief in a catastrophic event occurring on a future date can have the effect of ingraining followers with a sense of uniqueness and purpose. In addition, after a failed prophecy members may attempt to explain the outcome through
rationalization and
dissonance reduction. Explanations may include stating that the group members had misinterpreted the leader's original plan, that the cataclysmic event itself had been postponed to a later date by the leader, or that the activities of the group itself had forestalled disaster. Carlton writes that the event is only seen as a "doomsday" for the "wicked and unrepentant," whereas members of the group itself often regard it as a "day of deliverance," or a "renewal of the world." He regards these groups as "the ultimate in exclusivity," and while the future will be bleak for nonbelievers due to an unforeseen
cataclysm, members of the group are promised existence in a new
utopia. == Media coverage ==