Ayutthaya era (1351–1767) Thailand, formerly known as
Siam, opened to foreign contact in the
pre-industrial era. The diverse natural resources of Siam were underutilized. However, coastal ports and cities at the river mouths were early economic centers which welcomed
merchants from
Persia,
Arab countries, Chinese dynasties and various kingdoms in
South and
Southeast Asia. The rise of
Ayutthaya during the 14th century was connected to renewed
maritime trade with China, India and Southeast Asia. Ayutthaya became one of the most prosperous trade centers in Asia. However, the
Burmese–Siamese War (1765–1767) caused immense economic harm with trade disruption and the eventual destruction of Ayutthaya in 1767.
Rattanakosin era (1782–1932) When the capital of the kingdom moved to Bangkok during the 19th century, foreign trade (particularly with China) became the focus of the government. Chinese merchants came to trade; some settled in the country and received official positions. A number of Chinese merchants and migrants became high dignitaries in the court. From the mid-19th century onward, European merchants were increasingly active. The
Bowring Treaty, signed in 1855, guaranteed the privileges of British traders. The
Harris Treaty of 1856, which updated the
Roberts Treaty of 1833, extended the same guarantees to American traders. There were multiple costly conflicts with
French Indochina from the 18th till the mid 20th century. Siam lost major disputed territories such as
Laos and
Cambodia to the French colonists. The
British Empire gained control over Siamese provinces in the
Malay peninsula and on the western border with
British Burma. Nevertheless, Thailand was the only Southeast Asian country that remained sovereign from
European colonial powers. The domestic market developed slowly, with serfdom,
slavery related to the
sakdina system as major causes of domestic stagnation. Most of the male population in Siam was in the service of court officials, while their wives and daughters may have traded on a small scale in local markets. Those who were heavily indebted might sell themselves as slaves. King
Rama V abolished serfdom and slavery in 1901 and 1905, respectively. Thailand was a member of the
Allies of World War I. From the early 20th century to the end of
World War II, Siam's economy gradually became globalized. Major entrepreneurs were ethnic Chinese who became Siamese nationals. Exports of agricultural products (especially rice) were very important and Thailand has been among the top rice exporters in the world. The Siamese economy suffered greatly from the
Great Depression, a cause of the
Siamese revolution of 1932. Significant investment in education in the 1930s (and again in the 1950s) laid the basis for economic growth, as did a liberal approach to trade and investment.
Bhumibol era (1946–2016) Post-war era (1945–1955) Postwar domestic and international politics played significant roles in Thai economic development for most of the
Cold War era. From 1945 to 1947 (when the Cold War had not yet begun), the Thai economy suffered because of
World War II. During the war, the Thai government (led by Field Marshal
Plaek Phibunsongkram) allied with
Japan and declared war against the
Allies. After the war, Thailand had to supply 1.5 million tons of rice to Western countries without charge, a burden on the country's economic recovery. The government tried to solve the problem by establishing a rice office to oversee the rice trade. During this period, a multiple-exchange-rate system was introduced amid fiscal problems, and the kingdom experienced a shortage of consumer goods. In November 1947, a brief democratic period was ended by a military coup and the Thai economy regained its momentum. In his dissertation, Somsak Nilnopkoon considers the period from 1947 to 1951 one of prosperity. As a result, from 1950 onward, Thailand received military and economic aid from the US. The Phibunsongkram government established many state enterprises, which were seen as economic nationalism. The state (and its bureaucrats) dominated capital allocation in the kingdom.
Ammar Siamwalla, one of Thailand's most prominent economists, calls it the period of "bureaucratic capitalism". During this period, the market-oriented Import-Substituting Industrialization (ISI) led to economic expansion in the kingdom during the 1960s. According to former President
Richard Nixon's 1967
Foreign Affairs article, Thailand entered a period of rapid growth in 1958 (with an average growth rate of 7 percent per year).
Economic problems (1970–1984) From the 1970s to 1984, Thailand suffered from many economic problems: decreasing US investment, budget deficits, oil-price spikes, and inflation. Domestic politics were also unstable. With the
Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia on 25 December 1978, Thailand became the front-line state in the struggle against communism, surrounded by two communist countries and a socialist Burma under General
Ne Win. Successive governments tried to solve the economic problems by promoting exports and tourism, still important for the Thai economy. One of the best-known measures to deal with the economic problems of that time was implemented under General
Prem Tinsulanonda's government, in power from 1980 to 1988. Between 1981 and 1984, the government devalued the national currency, the
Thai baht (THB), three times. On 12 May 1981, it was devalued by 1.07 percent, from THB20.775/US$ to THB21/US$. On 15 July 1981, it was again devalued, this time by 8.7 percent (from THB21/US$ to THB23/US$). The third devaluation, on 5 November 1984, was the most significant: 15 percent, from THB23/US$ to THB27/US$. The government also replaced the country's fixed exchange rate (where it was pegged to the US dollar) with a "multiple currency basket peg system" in which the US dollar bore 80 percent of the weight. Calculated from the
IMF's World Economic Outlook Database, in the period 1980–1984, the Thai economy had an average GDP growth rate of 5.4 percent.
Economic boom (1985–1997) Concurrent with the third devaluation of the Thai baht, on 22 September 1985, Japan, the US, the
United Kingdom,
France, and West Germany signed the
Plaza Accord to depreciate the US dollar in relation to the yen and the
Deutsche Mark. Since the dollar accounted for 80 percent of the Thai currency basket, the baht was depreciated further, making Thailand's exports more competitive and the country more attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI) (especially from Japan, whose currency had appreciated since 1985). In 1988, Prem Tinsulanonda resigned and was succeeded by
Chatichai Choonhavan, the first democratically elected prime minister of Thailand since 1976. The
Cambodian-Vietnamese War was ending; Vietnam gradually retreated from Cambodia by 1989, enhancing Thai economic development. After the 1984 baht devaluation and the 1985
Plaza Accord, although the public sector struggled due to fiscal constraints, the private sector grew. The country's improved foreign trade and an influx of foreign direct investment (mainly from Japan) triggered an economic boom from 1987 to 1996. Although Thailand had previously promoted its exports, during this period the country shifted from
import-substitution (ISI) to
export-oriented industrialization (EOI). During this decade the Thai GDP (calculated from the IMF World Economic Outlook database) had an average growth rate of 9.5 percent per year, with a peak of 13.3 percent in 1988. Many loans were backed by
real estate, creating an
economic bubble. By late 1996, there was a loss of confidence in the country's financial institutions; the government closed 18
trust companies and three
commercial banks. The following year, 56 financial institutions were closed by the government. In the government, there was a call from Virapong Ramangkul (an economic advisor of Prime Minister
Chavalit Yongchaiyudh) to devalue the baht, which was supported by former Prime Minister
Prem Tinsulanonda. Yongchaiyudh ignored them, relying on the
Bank of Thailand (led by Governor Rerngchai Marakanond, who spent as much as US$24 billion – about two-thirds of Thailand's international reserves) to protect the baht. On 2 July 1997, Thailand had US$2,850 billion remaining in international reserves, The country's GDP dropped from THB3.115 trillion at the end of 1996 to THB2.749 trillion at the end of 1998. In dollar terms, it took Thailand as long as 10 years to regain its 1996 GDP. The unemployment rate went up nearly threefold: from 1.5 percent of the labor force in 1996 to 4.4 percent in 1998. A sharp decrease in the value of the baht abruptly increased foreign debt, undermining financial institutions. Many were sold, in part, to foreign investors while others went bankrupt. Due to low international reserves from the Bank of Thailand's currency-protection measures, the government had to accept a loan from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Overall, Thailand received US$17.2 billion in
aid. The crisis impacted Thai politics. One direct effect was that Prime Minister
Chavalit Yongchaiyudh resigned under pressure on 6 November 1997, succeeded by opposition leader
Chuan Leekpai. The second Leekpai government, in office from November 1997 to February 2001, tried to implement economic reforms based on IMF-guided
neo-liberal capitalism. It pursued strict fiscal policies (keeping interest rates high and cutting government spending), enacting 11 laws it called "bitter medicine" and critics called "the 11 nation-selling laws". The Thai government and its supporters maintained that with these measures, the Thai economy improved. In 1999, Thailand had a positive GDP growth rate for the first time since the crisis. Many critics, however, mistrusted the IMF and maintained that government-spending cuts harmed the recovery. Unlike economic problems in
Latin America and
Africa, they asserted, the Asian financial crisis was born in the private sector and the IMF measures were inappropriate. The positive growth rate in 1999 was because the country's GDP had gone down for two consecutive years, as much as −10.5 percent in 1998 alone. In terms of the baht, it was not until 2002 (in dollar terms, not until 2006) that Thailand would regain its 1996 GDP. An additional 1999 loan from the Miyazawa Plan made the question of whether (or to what extent) the Leekpai government helped the Thai economy controversial.
Early 21st century An indirect effect of the financial crisis on Thai politics was the rise of
Thaksin Shinawatra. In reaction to the government's economic policies, Thaksin Shinawatra's
Thai Rak Thai Party won a landslide victory over Chuan Leekpai's
Democrat Party in the
2001 general election and took office in February 2001. Although weak export demand held the GDP growth rate to 2.2 percent in the first year of his administration, the first Thaksin Shinawatra government performed well from 2002 to 2004 with growth rates of 5.3, 7.1 and 6.3 percent respectively. His policy was later called
Thaksinomics. During Thaksin's first term, Thailand's economy regained momentum and the country paid off its IMF debt by July 2003 (two years ahead of schedule). Despite criticism of Thaksinomics, Thaksin's party won another landslide victory over the Democrat Party in the
2005 general election. The official economic data related to Thaksinomics reveals that between 2001 and 2011, the GDP per capita of
Isan, the country's large north-eastern region, more than doubled to US$1,475, while, over the same period, GDP in the Bangkok area rose from US$7,900 to nearly US$13,000. The cost of air and water pollution in Thailand is around 1.6–2.6% of GDP per year based on a 2004 indicator. in 2004. The Indian Ocean tsunami affected the economy Thaksin's second term was less successful. The
2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami caused a big human toll, damage and negatively impacted the first-quarter Thai GDP in 2005. The
Yellow Shirts, a coalition of protesters against Thaksin, also emerged in 2005. In 2006, Thaksin dissolved the parliament and called for a general election. The
April 2006 general election was boycotted by the main opposition parties. Thaksin's party won again, but the election was declared invalid by the
Constitutional Court. Another
general election, scheduled for October 2006, was cancelled. On 19 September a group of soldiers calling themselves the
Council for Democratic Reform under the Constitutional Monarchy led by
Sonthi Boonyaratglin organized a coup, ousting Thaksin while he was in
New York City preparing for a speech at the
United Nations General Assembly. During the last year of the second Thaksin government, the Thai GDP grew by 5.1 percent. Under his government, Thailand's overall ranking in the IMD Global Competitiveness Scoreboard rose from 31st in 2002 to 25th in 2005 before falling to 29th in 2006. After the coup, Thailand's economy again suffered. From the last quarter of 2006 through 2007, the country was ruled by a military junta led by General
Surayud Chulanont, who was appointed prime minister in October 2006. The 2006 GDP growth rate slowed from 6.1, 5.1 and 4.8 percent year-over-year in the first three-quarters to 4.4 percent (YoY) in Q4. Thailand's ranking on the IMD Global Competitiveness Scoreboard fell from 26th in 2005 to 29th in 2006 and 33rd in 2007. The government was under pressure from the
2008 financial crisis and the
Red Shirts, who refused to acknowledge Abhisit Vejjajiva's prime ministry and called for new elections as soon as possible. However, Abhisit rejected the call until he dissolved the parliament for a new election in May 2011. In 2009, his first year in office, Thailand experienced a negative growth rate for the first time since the
1997 Asian financial crisis: a GDP of −2.3 percent. In the first two-quarters of 2011, when the political situation was relatively calm, the Thai GDP grew by 3.2 and 2.7 percent (YoY). The 2011 GDP growth rate fell to 0.1 percent, with a contraction of 8.9 percent (YoY) in Q4 alone. The country's overall competitiveness ranking, according to the IMD World Competitiveness Scoreboard, fell from 27 in 2011 to 30 in 2012. In 2012, Thailand was recovering from the previous year's severe flood. The Yingluck government planned to develop the country's infrastructure, ranging from a long-term water-management system to logistics. The
Euro area crisis reportedly harmed Thailand's economic growth in 2012, directly and indirectly affecting the country's exports. Thailand's GDP grew by 6.5 percent, with a headline inflation rate of 3.02 percent, and a current account surplus of 0.7 percent of the country's GDP. On 23 December 2013, the Thai baht dropped to a three-year low due to the political unrest during the preceding months. According to
Bloomberg, the Thai currency lost 4.6 percent over November and December, while the main stock index also dropped (9.1 percent). Following the Thai military coup in May 2014,
Agence France Presse (AFP) published an article claiming that the nation was on the "verge of recession". Published on 17 June 2014, the article's main subject is the departure of nearly 180,000
Cambodians from Thailand due to fears of an immigration "clampdown", but concluded with information on the Thai economy's contraction of 2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter, from January to the end of March 2014. Since the cessation of the curfew that was enacted by the military in May 2014, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI)'s chairman, Supant Mongkolsuthree, said that he projects growth of 2.5–3 percent for the Thai economy in 2014, as well as a revitalisation of the
Thai tourism industry in the second half of 2014. Furthermore, Supant also cited the Board of Investment's future consideration of a backlog of investment projects, estimated at 700 billion baht, as an economically beneficial process that would occur around October 2014. Thailand's flagging economic performance led, at the end of 2015, to increased criticism of the
National Council for Peace and Order's (NCPO) handling of the economy, both at home and in influential Western media. The country's economic growth of 2.8% in the first quarter of 2019 was recorded to be the slowest since 2014.
Vajiralongkorn era (2016–present) The military government unveiled its newest economic initiative, "Thailand 4.0", in 2016. Thailand 4.0 is the "...master plan to free Thailand from the
middle-income trap, making it a high-income nation in five years." The government narrative describes Thailand 1.0 as the agrarian economy of Thailand decades ago. Thailand 1.0 gave way to Thailand 2.0, when the nation's economy moved on to light industry, textiles, and food processing. Thailand 3.0 describes the present day, with heavy industry and energy accounting for up to 70 percent of the Thai GDP. Critics of Thailand 4.0 point out that Thailand lacks the specialists and experts, especially in high-technology, needed to modernise the Thai industry. "...the government will have to allow the import of foreign specialists to help bring forward Thailand 4.0," said Dr. Somchai Jitsuchon, research director for inclusive development at the
Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). "...that won't be easy as local professional associations will oppose the idea as they want to reserve those professional careers for Thais only". The Thai government reduced the
jet fuel tax between April 2020 and June 2023. In August 2024, the dismissal of Thai Prime Minister
Srettha Thavisin exacerbated Thailand's economic difficulties, impeding the implementation of significant financial measures. This political upheaval intensified existing issues such as high
household debt and economic stagnation, further undermining investor confidence and economic stability. ==Macroeconomic trends==