Crime There exists a large volume of research contesting whether the Ferguson effect exists. Some studies, such as a 2017 study, found that violent crime was elevated and rose more in cities where concern about police violence was greatest. More specifically, a February 2016
University of Colorado Boulder study looked at crime statistics from 81 U.S. cities and found no evidence of a Ferguson effect with respect to overall, violent, or property crime, but identified an increase in robbery rates after the shooting of Michael Brown (while these rates decreased before this shooting). The study concluded that "any Ferguson Effect is constrained largely to cities with historically high levels of violence, a large composition of black residents, and socioeconomic disadvantages," indicating a Ferguson effect may exist, but only in certain regions, while other studies, such as another 2017 study, showed that after the shooting of Michael Brown, police traffic stops declined while
hit rates went up on police searches in the state of
Missouri. The study found no relationship between changes in police activity and crime rates, in direct contradiction to the previous study as it is concentrated in a region with historically high levels of violence. Then again, a June 2016
University of Missouri study by Rosenfeld, published by the
National Institute of Justice found there was an "unprecedented" 16.8% increase in homicides in 56 large cities over the course of 2015, and examined the Ferguson effect as one of three plausible explanations recommended for further research. Rosenfeld stated that "the only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect" and that it is his "leading hypothesis". On the other hand, a 2019 research study titled "De-policing as a consequence of the so-called 'Ferguson effect,'" a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, John M MacDonald, explored the relationship between arrests, de-policing, and homicide rates as a result of the police brutality in Ferguson, Missouri. This paper, referencing the study Rosenfield and Wallman, did not find a correlation between arrests and homicide rates in support of de-policing happening. No evidence was found to indicate the increase in homicides rates in 2015 were due to a change in the number of arrests, because the same police departments that exhibited an increase in arrests also resulted in an increase in homicides. Thus, the basis of both of these studies is founded on the assumption that the Ferguson effect is real, instigating further research based on a contested theory. On a different note, the following two studies focused their research efforts on the number of police reports, indicative of a change in policing behavior. In 2018,
USA Today reported a sharp increase (63%) in
Baltimore homicides after the local death of
Freddie Grey in April 2015, showing 527 occurring in the three years prior, versus 859 in the three years following. This was accompanied by police taking an apparent blind eye to ordinary street crime, with a nearly 50% reduction in police reports of spotting potential violations themselves. In June 2020,
Harvard economist
Roland Fryer and Tanaya Devi released a paper showing evidence of the Ferguson effect. Across five cities where a deadly shooting that went
viral preceded an investigation into crime and policing, they found that the violent crime rate increased, resulting in an additional 900 homicides and 34,000 excess felonies across two years. They suggest that this was caused by changes in the quantity of policing. Other theories, such as changes in community trust, were not supported by the data. Looking more closely at the effects of
police brutality and media coverage, a study titled "A 'Ferguson Effect' on 2016 Presidential Vote Preference? Findings from a Framing Experiment Examining 'Shy Voters' and Cues Related to Policing and Social Unrest," Wozniak et al. examines the effect of sociopolitical unrest and the rhetoric of crime on voters' decision in the
2020 presidential election. This study was conducted by determining whether showing an image that depicted police violence to a voter would influence their decision in the polls. The results of this study found that seeing an image of a police officer and a civilian increased the probability that an individual would exhibit voting preference and showing an image of aggravated and violent police officers would drastically change the voted-for candidate. However, in April 2019, Grace Ketron, in affiliation with the
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, published the study "How Media Covered Police Shootings During and After Ferguson: Framing Analysis of Officer-Involved Shootings In 2014 and 2016." In this research,
The New York Times,
Fox News, and the
Associated Press were examined as far as their portrayal of police shootings after the shootings of Michael Brown and
Terence Crutcher in an effort to determine whether the media coverage of the police shootings was biased as it pertained to the role media plays in public perception. Her results show these three large news sources presented the articles on these two shootings in a straightforward manner, using diction with a neutral tone and presenting both sides and opinions in a balanced way. Moreover, in September 2016, professors from
Arizona State University,
University of Nebraska at Omaha, and
University of Louisville published a study on the change in number of violent assaults and murders of U.S. police officers due to the increase in anti-police sentiment following the events in
Ferguson, Missouri. Despite reporters' claims that an increase in the number of murders of officers in the line of duty was due to the increased media attention on the "
war on cops," the results of this research study found no evidence indicating an increase in the number of murders of U.S. police officers. On the flip side, in January 2017, Campbell et al. released an article titled "Is the Number of Citizens Fatally Shot by Police Increasing in the Post-Ferguson Era?" examining the long-term change in the number of U.S. citizens killed by a fatal gunshot fired by police officers in the line of duty after
Michael Brown Jr.'s death in
Ferguson, Missouri. This study also found no significant evidence indicating a long-term increasing or decreasing pattern in fatally shot citizens by police officers. The number of fatally shot citizens is unstable with variable fluctuations in the short time spans. Furthermore, a study conducted by Galovski et al. titled "Exposure to Violence During Ferguson Protests: Mental Health Effects for Law Enforcement and Community Members: Effects of Exposure to Violence in Ferguson" in August 2016 seeking to observe whether there exists a relationship between closeness to community violence and the
mental health of both police officers in the line of duty and all other community members. Closer proximity to community violence results in changes in mental health. Community members were more affected than police officers and Black members of the community were more affected from the violence in Ferguson than white community members. Overall, the research does not point to a decisive answer to the question of whether the Ferguson effect exists up to this date. A March 2016 study by
Johns Hopkins University researchers
Stephen L. Morgan and Joel Pally noted a large decline in arrests and a spike in violent crime in
Baltimore after the
death of Freddie Gray, consistent with a Ferguson effect. However, they highlighted certain qualifications and caveats that made it unclear whether the crime spike should be regarded as evidence of a Ferguson effect. In March 2017, Stephen Edward Simonds Jr. as part of
Towson University published "The Ferguson Effect—Are Police Anxieties to Blame?" in order to study de-policing in
Burlington, Vermont,
Montgomery County, Maryland, and
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. This research found insufficient evidence to support the theory of the Ferguson effect and concludes that one limitation on this study is the lack of transparency in the Public Data Initiative. Furthermore, this study implies that future studies should move their focus from crime and arrest data to de-policing and outlook of police officers in the line of duty. In May 2020, the murder of
George Floyd, a Black man, by a White police officer in
Minneapolis led to widespread protests and unrest. Some criminalists suggested that in the
aftermath of protests and riots, the city experienced a "Minneapolis Effect", which alluded to the "Ferguson Effect" hypothesis, where less-active policing was theorized to have contributed to increases in the rates of homicides and other violent crimes.
Negative publicity of police A 2017 study surveyed officers in a police department in the
southeastern U.S., and found that they believed negative publicity of police negatively affects civilians enough to increase
crime rates. The study also found negative publicity increases officers' perceptions of a
police legitimacy crisis and fear of being falsely accused of
misconduct. This, in turn, causes police officers to reduce their
proactive policing. According to Vox, "a 1999 study by criminologist Robert Ankony found that when police feel more alienated from, and negatively toward, members of the community, they're more likely to retreat from 'proactive' policing and do only what they need to do to respond to crimes." However, another study, "Do Police Brutality Stories Reduce 911 Calls? Reassessing an Important Criminological Finding" by Michael Zoorob conducted in January 2020, contradicts the previous study in that it reassesses the popular assertion that 911 calls decreased and homicides increased due to the police brutality instance in
Wisconsin, concluding that there is no support to back up the claim that media coverage of
police brutality stories decreases crime reporting and increases
homicides. Likewise, a December 2016 study found that police deputies who thought their supervisors were more fair were less likely to perceive danger, be unmotivated, or think that civilian attitudes toward the police have become more cynical since the
shooting of Michael Brown. An article by amnesty.org released in August 2020 reports, "The unnecessary and sometimes excessive use of force by police against protesters exhibits the very
systemic racism and impunity they had taken to the streets to protest," adding to the negative publicity of police in a summary of multiple
human rights violations. This article also presents images that show a
militarized police force in confrontation with unarmed individuals that evokes emotion from the reader. The police officers on duty are captured carrying a large wooden weapon in their hands in addition to their regular equipment as well as wearing masks while the citizens raise their fists in defiance. The negative publicity of police officers extends beyond the coverage of specific instances of police brutality to that of city-wide police departments that fail to hold their police officers accountable when found guilty. One particular example of this is detailed in
Police Brutality by Marshall Miller in which the Louima case in
New York City instigates a federal investigation into the police department in an attempt to find whether they are tolerant of police officers who abuse their positions of authority. ==Criticism==