Tornado outbreak of March 2–3, 2020

The threat for severe weather across Middle Tennessee and surrounding areas was poorly forecasted in advance. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) first issued a slight risk across northeastern Arkansas into the Tennessee Valley area in their 1:00 a.m. CST (06:00 UTC) March 2 outlook. In their forecast, the SPC noted that an unstable atmosphere was likely to materialize ahead of an approaching cold front, but that this environment would likely be contained by a capping inversion for most of the day. By the afternoon hours, the SPC expected the combination of rich moisture, modest wind shear, and cold mid-level temperatures to promote the formation of supercells with a primary risk of large hail. Some tornadic activity appeared possible overnight given an increase in low-level winds. At 5:20 p.m. CST, the first tornado watch was issued from northern Arkansas northeastward into southern Indiana and western Kentucky as discrete storms began to develop. By 11:00 p.m. CST, as a surface low progressed northeastward through southern Missouri, sustained barometric pressure falls caused supercell storms to give way to an organized storm cluster that gradually weakened as it progressed into an area of less abundant moisture. As convection weakened to the north, the SPC began to monitor areas farther south – encompassing eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, and southwestern Kentucky – for reinvigorated thunderstorm development as the northern jet stream amplified southeastward into the risk area. Strong wind shear coupled with low instability was expected to promote activity with "a risk for severe hail, strong surface gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two." At 11:20 p.m. CST, a localized tornado watch was issued across Middle Tennessee. In subsequent hours, a long-lived and intense supercell produced ten tornadoes along the Interstate 40 corridor. A few hours after the Tennessee event, as severe weather moved farther south, a couple weaker tornadoes touched down in central Alabama as the outbreak wound down. Tennessee supercell At 10:12 p.m. CST, the first tornado produced by the supercell touched down in Gibson County in West Tennessee. This tornado was rated EF1 and was followed minutes later by a stronger and longer-tracked EF2 tornado which traveled across much of Carroll County. A tornado warning was not issued for the first two tornadoes; the first tornado warning was issued prior to the development of third tornado. After causing minor to moderate damage with these two tornadoes, the supercell quickly produced a third tornado, also rated EF2, that touched down north of Camden in Benton County. This tornado produced significant damage along a nearly path, killing one person in Benton County before crossing Kentucky Lake into Humphreys County in Middle Tennessee. It continued to produce damage until dissipating just north of Waverly at 11:31 p.m. CST. A fourth tornado, rated EF0, caused sporadic damage minutes later in the McEwen area. Upon crossing into Dickson County, the supercell began to weaken somewhat, with a marked decrease in rotation as the cell moved through Dickson and into Cheatham County. However, very large hail was reported in the Charlotte area as the cell passed through. After passing just north of Pegram, the supercell immediately began showing signs of better organization as a well-defined hook echo reappeared on radar. Just after entering Davidson County, the fifth tornado associated with the cell commenced at 12:32 a.m. CST, approximately northeast of Pegram. A tornado warning was issued for Downtown Nashville three minutes later as the tornado crossed the Cumberland River and impacted the John C. Tune Airport, as well as the nearby headquarters and terminal of truckload carrier Western Express, Inc. It would go on to produce widespread EF2 to high-end EF3 damage in the communities of North Nashville, Germantown, East Nashville, Donelson, Hermitage, and Mount Juliet while traveling through Davidson, Wilson, and Smith counties, also causing heavy damage in Lebanon and Gordonsville. Five people were killed by the tornado, two in East Nashville and three near Mount Juliet, and 220 people were injured. After lifting, a sixth tornado, rated EF0, was quickly produced along the Smith–Putnam county line. It moved across areas north of Buffalo Valley, dissipating as it tried to ascend the Highland Rim. The seventh tornado was a violent EF4 tornado that caused catastrophic damage in Putnam County near Baxter and in the western part of Cookeville, resulting in 19 deaths and 87 injuries. It touched down northwest of Baxter at 1:48 a.m. CST, just as a tornado warning was issued for the area. The tornado moved toward the Double Springs community and quickly intensified. Producing a narrow swath of EF3 to EF4-strength damage, the tornado moved along U.S. 70N, causing catastrophic damage in neighborhoods along the path. The tornado abruptly dissipated just before reaching downtown Cookeville after a path of nearly . This abrupt dissipation was due in part to a southern circulation developing within the cell to the south of Interstate 40, which later resulted in the eighth tornado, a brief EF0, southeast of Cookeville in Goffton. As the northern circulation dissipated over Overton County, the southern circulation became dominant as the supercell climbed the Cumberland Plateau into Cumberland County. An EF2 tornado, the ninth from the cell, began near Rinnie, north of Crossville, and moved east into the Catoosa Wildlife Management Area, producing extensive tree damage. After apparent dissipation in wilderness near the Cumberland–Morgan county border, a tenth tornado—rated EF0—produced minor damage a few miles east, just to the west of Lancing in East Tennessee. The final tornado produced by the cell dissipated at 3:40 a.m. EST (2:40 a.m. CST), four and a half hours after the first tornado in Gibson County. ==Confirmed tornadoes==