Seeking to replace the highly simplified classical approach to economic modeling, Simon became best known for his theory of corporate decision in his book
Administrative Behavior. In this book he based his concepts with an approach that recognized multiple factors that contribute to decision making. His organization and administration interest allowed him to not only serve three times as a university department chairman, but he also played a big part in the creation of the
Economic Cooperation Administration in 1948; administrative team that administered aid to the
Marshall Plan for the U.S. government, serving on President
Lyndon Johnson's Science Advisory Committee, and also the
National Academy of Sciences.
Decision-making Administrative Behavior, first published in 1947 and updated across the years, was based on Simon's doctoral dissertation. It served as the foundation for his life's work. The centerpiece of this book is the behavioral and cognitive processes of humans making rational decisions. By his definition, an operational administrative decision should be correct, efficient, and practical to implement with a set of coordinated means. • Identifying and listing all the alternatives • Determining all consequences resulting from each of the alternatives; • Comparing the accuracy and efficiency of each of these sets of consequences Any given individual or organization attempting to implement this model in a real situation would be unable to comply with the three requirements. Simon argued that knowledge of all alternatives, or all consequences that follow from each alternative is impossible in many realistic cases. Personal choices may be determined whether an individual joins a particular organization and continue to be made in his or her extra–organizational private life. As a member of an organization, however, that individual makes decisions not in relationship to personal needs and results, but in an impersonal sense as part of the organizational intent, purpose, and effect. Organizational inducements, rewards, and sanctions are all designed to form, strengthen, and maintain this identification. Loyalty was defined by Simon as the "process whereby the individual substitutes organizational objectives (service objectives or conservation objectives) for his own aims as the value-indices which determine his organizational decisions". This entailed evaluating alternative choices in terms of their consequences for the group rather than only for oneself or one's family. Decisions can be complex admixtures of facts and values. Information about facts, especially empirically proven facts or facts derived from specialized experience, are more easily transmitted in the exercise of authority than are the expressions of values. Simon is primarily interested in seeking identification of the individual employee with the organizational goals and values. Following
Lasswell, he states that "a person identifies himself with a group when, in making a decision, he evaluates the several alternatives of choice in terms of their consequences for the specified group". Simon has been critical of traditional economics' elementary understanding of decision-making, and argues it "is too quick to build an idealistic, unrealistic picture of the decision-making process and then prescribe on the basis of such unrealistic picture". Herbert Simon rediscovered path diagrams, which were originally invented by Sewall Wright around 1920.
Artificial intelligence Simon was a pioneer in the field of
artificial intelligence, creating with
Allen Newell the
Logic Theory Machine (1956) and the
General Problem Solver (GPS) (1957) programs. GPS may possibly be the first method developed for separating problem solving strategy from information about particular problems. Both programs were developed using the
Information Processing Language (IPL) (1956) developed by Newell,
Cliff Shaw, and Simon.
Donald Knuth mentions the development of list processing in IPL, with the
linked list originally called "NSS memory" for its inventors. In 1957, Simon predicted that
computer chess would surpass human chess abilities within "ten years" when, in reality, that transition took about forty years. He also predicted in 1965 that "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do." In the early 1960s psychologist
Ulric Neisser asserted that while machines are capable of replicating "cold cognition" behaviors such as reasoning, planning, perceiving, and deciding, they would never be able to replicate "
hot cognition" behaviors such as pain, pleasure, desire, and other emotions. Simon responded to Neisser's views in 1963 by writing a paper on emotional cognition, which he updated in 1967 and published in
Psychological Review. Simon's work on emotional cognition was largely ignored by the artificial intelligence research community for several years, but subsequent work on emotions by
Sloman and
Picard helped refocus attention on Simon's paper and eventually, made it highly influential on the topic. Simon also collaborated with
James G. March on several works in
organization theory. The study of human
problem solving required new kinds of human measurements and, with
Anders Ericsson, Simon developed the experimental technique of verbal protocol analysis. Simon was interested in the role of knowledge in expertise. He said that to become an expert on a topic required about ten years of experience and he and colleagues estimated that expertise was the result of learning roughly 50,000
chunks of information. A
chess expert was said to have learned about 50,000 chunks or chess position patterns. He was awarded the
ACM Turing Award, along with
Allen Newell, in 1975. "In joint scientific efforts extending over twenty years, initially in collaboration with
J.C. (Cliff) Shaw at the
RAND Corporation, and with numerous faculty and student colleagues at
Carnegie Mellon University, they have made basic contributions to
artificial intelligence, the psychology of human cognition, and list processing." Later versions of the model were applied to
concept formation and the acquisition of
expertise. With
Fernand Gobet, he has expanded the EPAM theory into the
CHREST computational model. The theory explains how simple
chunks of information form the building blocks of schemata, which are more complex structures. CHREST has been used predominantly, to simulate aspects of chess expertise.
Sociology and economics Simon has been credited for revolutionary changes in
microeconomics. He is responsible for the concept of organizational decision-making as it is known today. He was the first to rigorously examine how administrators made decisions when they did not have
perfect and complete information. It was in this area that he was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1978. At the
Cowles Commission, Simon's main goal was to link economic theory to mathematics and statistics. His main contributions were to the fields of
general equilibrium and
econometrics. He was greatly influenced by the marginalist debate that began in the 1930s. The popular work of the time argued that it was not apparent empirically that entrepreneurs needed to follow the marginalist principles of profit-maximization/cost-minimization in running organizations. The argument went on to note that profit maximization was not accomplished, in part, because of the lack of complete information. In decision-making, Simon believed that agents face uncertainty about the future and costs in acquiring information in the present. These factors limit the extent to which agents may make a fully rational decision, thus they possess only "
bounded rationality" and must make decisions by "
satisficing", or choosing that which might not be optimal, but which will make them happy enough. Bounded rationality is a central theme in
behavioral economics. It is concerned with the ways in which the process of decision-making influences the decision itself. The term is used to designate rational choices that take into account the cognitive limitations of both knowledge and cognitive capacity. Further, Simon emphasized that psychologists invoke a "procedural" definition of rationality, whereas economists employ a "substantive" definition. Gustavos Barros argued that the procedural rationality concept does not have a significant presence in the economics field and has never had nearly as much weight as the concept of bounded rationality. However, in an earlier article, Bhargava (1997) noted the importance of Simon's arguments and emphasized that there are several applications of the "procedural" definition of rationality in econometric analyses of data on health. In particular, economists should employ "auxiliary assumptions" that reflect the knowledge in the relevant biomedical fields, and guide the specification of econometric models for health outcomes. Simon was also known for his research on
industrial organization. He determined that the internal organization of firms and the external business decisions thereof, did not conform to the
neoclassical theories of "rational" decision-making. Simon wrote many articles on the topic over the course of his life, mainly focusing on the issue of decision-making within the behavior of
bounded rationality". "Rational behavior, in economics, means that individuals maximize their utility function under the constraints they face (e.g., their budget constraint, limited choices, ...) in pursuit of their self-interest. This is reflected in the theory of
subjective expected utility. Theories of bounded rationality relax one or more assumptions of standard expected utility theory". Simon determined that the best way to study these areas was through
computer simulations. As such, he developed an interest in
computer science. Simon's main interests in computer science were in artificial intelligence,
human–computer interaction, principles of the organization of humans and machines as information processing systems, the use of computers to study (by modeling) philosophical problems of the nature of intelligence and of
epistemology, and the social implications of computer technology. In his youth, Simon took an interest in
land economics and
Georgism, an idea known at the time as "single tax". Some of Simon's economic research was directed toward understanding technological change in general and the information processing revolution in particular. Mighton cites a 2000 paper by Simon and two coauthors that counters arguments by French mathematics educator,
Guy Brousseau, and others suggesting that excessive practice hampers children's understanding: ==Awards and honors==