Late 1300s to early 1800s The effect of the Ottoman conquest on Bulgarian demography is uncertain and subject to much contention. However, the population of present-day Bulgaria in the 1450s is estimated to have hit a low of 600,000 people, divided into approx. 450,000 Christians and 150,000 Muslims (or a Christian-to-Muslim ratio of 3:1 or 75 per cent to 25 per cent) following the wide-scale migration of Muslims from Anatolia and emigration of Christians to Wallachia, etc. The census only covered healthy taxable men between 15 and 60 years of age, who were free from disability. By using primary population records from the Danube Vilayet, Bulgarian statistician Dimitar Arkadiev has found that men aged 15–60 represented, on average, 49.5% of all males and that the coefficient that would make it possible to calculate the entire male population is therefore
2.02. The two other sanjaks in the Danube Vilayet, those of
Niš and
Tulça, were ceded to Serbia and Romania, respectively. According to the "Kuyûd-ı Atîk" Ottoman Population Register, the
male population of the five sanjaks to eventually form the future
Principality of Bulgaria was divided into the following ethnoconfessional communities in 1865: Between 1855 and 1865, the population of the Danube Vilayet underwent seismic changes, as the Ottoman authorities settled more than 300,000
Crimean Tatars and
Circassians on the territory of the province. The settlement took place in two waves: one of 142,852 Tatars and
Nogais, with a minority of Circassians, who settled in the Danube Vilayet between 1855 and 1862, and a second one of some 35,000 Circassian families (140,000–175,000 settlers), who arrived in 1864. According to Turkish scholar
Kemal Karpat, the Tatar and Circassian colonisation of the vilayet not only offset the heavy Muslim population losses earlier in the century, but also counteracted continued population loss and led to an increase in its Muslim population. In this connection, Karpat also refers to the material differences between Muslim and non-Muslim fertility rates, with non-Muslims growing at the rate of 2% per annum and Muslims usually averaging 0%. Koyuncu also notes a much higher natural rate of increase among Non-Muslims and attributes the tremendous rate of increase in the Muslim population of the five Bulgarian sanjaks plus the Sanjak of Tulça of 84.23% (220,276 males) vs. 53.29% (229,188 males) for Non-Muslims from 1860 to 1875 to the colonisation of the vilayet with Crimean Tatars and Circassians. The
Congress of Berlin ceded the
kaza of Cuma-i Bâlâ to the Ottoman Empire and the
kaza of Mankalya from the Sanjak of Varna (male Muslim population of 6,675 and male non-Muslim population of 499) to Romania and attached the
kaza of Iznebol (male Muslim population of 149 and male non-Muslim population of 7,072) from the Sanjak of Niš to the Principality of Bulgaria. According to Turkish Ottomanist Koyuncu, 13,825
male Circassians were carried over to the "established Muslims" column and additional 20,000 were left out or simply lost in the carry-over. Contemporary European geographers, such as German-English
Ravenstein, French Bianconi and German
Kiepert similarly counted Crimean Tatars with Turks in Islam millet. Unlike the Circassian colonisation in 1864 and later years, where precise numbers are elusive, the settlement of Crimean Tatars, Nogais, etc. in 1855-1862 has been documented minutely. Out of a total of 34,344 households with 142,852 members (or 4.16 members per household on average) settled along the Danube, a total of 22,360 households with some 93,000 members were given land in kazas that became part of the Principality of Bulgaria. the population living in the future
Principality of Bulgaria in 1875 was estimated at 2,085,224 people, of whom 1,187,564 were Bulgarians (56.96%); 546,776 Turks (26.22%); 215,828 Crimean and Circassian Muhacir (10.35%); 49,392 Muslim Romani (2.35%); 30,380 Miscellaneous Christians (1.46%); 20,000 Pomaks (0.96%); 14,606 Christian Romani (0.70%); 9,190 Jews (0.44%); 7,830 Greeks (0.38%); 3,598 Armenians (0.17%). Of particular note is that fully 10% of the total population, and 25% of all Muslims in the sanjaks, were made up of non-native refugees/colonists, who had arrived only 10 to 20 years before, and whose area of settlement had been carefully picked by the Ottoman authorities in order to: increase Muslim population on the Balkans; cordon off Bulgaria from its neighbours and aid in fighting against a future Russian invasion, act as a counterbalance to Rumelia's Christian population. & sanjaks, with superimposed borders of
Modern Turkey In the words of Nusret Pasha, Head of the Silistra Eylaet Colonisation Commission himself, to
Hürriyet on 19 October 1868, the Circassians were settled along the Danube in order to serve as live fortification and barrier against Russia. The following are district-by-district population records from the 1876 Ottoman salname, based on the
Adrianople Vilayet census of 1875. As is common for Ottoman statistics, figures refer to
males only (figures at the bottom are male-female aggregated estimates): According to British diplomat Drummond-Wolff, apart from Turks, Islam millet also included 25,000 Muslim Bulgarians, 10,000 Tatars and Nogays and 10,000 Circassians. At the same time, British historian R.J. Moore has identified 4,000 male Greeks (or 8,000 in total) in the Sanjak of Filibe, and the British consulary service additional 22,000 in the Sanjak of İslimye and 5,693 in the Manastır nahiya, or a total of 35,693 Greeks, who had been counted together with the Orthodox Bulgarians. In turn, all Catholics were Bulgarian Paulicians. Thus, Eastern Rumelia's total population of 912,114 people prior to the Russo-Turkish War (1877-1878) was divided into 528,673 Christian Bulgarians (57.96%), 257,322 Turks (28.21%), 35,693 Greeks (3.91%), 31,634 Muslim Romani (3.47%), 25,000 Pomaks or Muslim Bulgarians (2.74%), 20,000 Muhacir (2.19%), 6,616 Christian Romani (0.73%), 5,806 Jews (0.64%) and 1,370 Armenians (0.15%). ==Gallery==