On December 23, the
Storm Prediction Center discussed the probabilities for severe weather to materialize in the
Mississippi Valley, encompassing regions in northern
Louisiana, eastern
Arkansas, northwestern
Mississippi, western
Tennessee, the
Missouri Bootheel, and extreme southwestern
Kentucky. A
cold front ejecting from the
Texas Panhandle and a
warm front coming from the lower
Ohio River valley, intersected by a
stationary front placed over western
Kansas, led to the creation of a
triple point over northwestern Missouri. This set up the environment for an atmosphere conductive to severe weather. As the evening progressed, further certainty arose for the possibility for an outbreak, as
Convective Available Potential Energy values of around 1,000–2,000 J/kg and effective
wind shear were present for the aforementioned areas of the upper Mississippi Valley. Daylight heating in these areas gave way for effective
buoyancy in the area, further improving the conditions for supercells and to develop. Given the favorable parameters, the SPC, alongside its Convective outlook, introduced a 15% hatched area for tornadoes, indicating the probability for a few strong tornadoes to occur, as discrete
supercell thunderstorms were expected to develop in the area. As such, the SPC issued a
PDS tornado watch, the first of multiple tornado watches that day, for northern Louisiana, western Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, and western Tennessee, highlighting the elevated threat for strong tornadoes in the area. At 2000 UTC, the SPC introduced an increased area for the concern of strong tornadoes, extending the existent area to reach central Tennessee, northwestern
Alabama, and central portions of Kentucky. == Tornado summary ==