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Hotelling's T-squared distribution

In statistics, particularly in hypothesis testing, the Hotelling's T-squared distribution (T2), proposed by Harold Hotelling, is a multivariate probability distribution that is tightly related to the F-distribution and is most notable for arising as the distribution of a set of sample statistics that are natural generalizations of the statistics underlying the Student's t-distribution. The Hotelling's t-squared statistic (t2) is a generalization of Student's t-statistic that is used in multivariate hypothesis testing.

Motivation
The distribution arises in multivariate statistics in undertaking tests of the differences between the (multivariate) means of different populations, where tests for univariate problems would make use of a t-test. The distribution is named for Harold Hotelling, who developed it as a generalization of Student's t-distribution.{{cite journal |author-link=Harold Hotelling |first=H. |last=Hotelling |year=1931 |title=The generalization of Student's ratio |journal=Annals of Mathematical Statistics |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=360–378 |doi=10.1214/aoms/1177732979 ==Definition==
Definition
If the vector d is Gaussian multivariate-distributed with zero mean and unit covariance matrix N(\mathbf{0}_{p}, \mathbf{I}_{p, p}) and M is a p \times p random matrix with a Wishart distribution W(\mathbf{I}_{p, p}, m) with unit scale matrix and m degrees of freedom, and d and M are independent of each other, then the quadratic form X has a Hotelling distribution (with parameters p and m): X = m d^T M^{-1} d \sim T^2(p, m). It can be shown that if a random variable X has Hotelling's T-squared distribution, X \sim T^2_{p,m}, then: \frac{m-p+1}{pm} X\sim F_{p,m-p+1} where F_{p,m-p+1} is the F-distribution with parameters p and m − p + 1. ==Hotelling t-squared statistic==
Hotelling t-squared statistic
Let \hat{\mathbf \Sigma} be the sample covariance: \hat{\mathbf \Sigma} = \frac 1 {n-1} \sum_{i=1}^n \left(\mathbf{x}_i -\overline{\mathbf{x}}\right) \left(\mathbf{x}_i - \overline{\mathbf{x}}\right)' where we denote transpose by an apostrophe. It can be shown that \hat{\mathbf \Sigma} is a positive (semi) definite matrix and (n-1)\hat{\mathbf \Sigma} follows a p-variate Wishart distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom. The sample covariance matrix of the mean reads \hat{\mathbf \Sigma}_\overline{\mathbf x}=\hat{\mathbf \Sigma}/n. The '''Hotelling's t-squared statistic''' is then defined as: t^2=(\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mu})'\hat{\mathbf \Sigma}_\overline{\mathbf x}^{-1} (\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mathbf\mu})=n(\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mu})'\hat{\mathbf \Sigma}^{-1} (\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mathbf\mu}), which is proportional to the Mahalanobis distance between the sample mean and \boldsymbol{\mu}. Because of this, one should expect the statistic to assume low values if \overline{\mathbf x} \approx \boldsymbol{\mu}, and high values if they are different. From the distribution, t^2 \sim T^2_{p,n-1}=\frac{p(n-1)}{n-p} F_{p,n-p} , where F_{p,n-p} is the F-distribution with parameters p and n − p. In order to calculate a p-value (unrelated to p variable here), note that the distribution of t^2 equivalently implies that \frac{n-p} {p(n-1)} t^2 \sim F_{p,n-p} . Then, use the quantity on the left hand side to evaluate the p-value corresponding to the sample, which comes from the F-distribution. A confidence region may also be determined using similar logic. Motivation Let \mathcal{N}_p(\boldsymbol{\mu},{\mathbf \Sigma}) denote a p-variate normal distribution with location \boldsymbol{\mu} and known covariance {\mathbf \Sigma}. Let {\mathbf x}_1,\dots,{\mathbf x}_n\sim \mathcal{N}_p(\boldsymbol{\mu},{\mathbf \Sigma}) be n independent identically distributed (iid) random variables, which may be represented as p\times1 column vectors of real numbers. Define \overline{\mathbf x}=\frac{\mathbf{x}_1+\cdots+\mathbf{x}_n}{n} to be the sample mean with covariance {\mathbf \Sigma}_\overline{\mathbf x}={\mathbf \Sigma}/ n. It can be shown that (\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mu})'{\mathbf \Sigma}_\overline{\mathbf x}^{-1}(\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mathbf\mu})\sim\chi^2_p , where \chi^2_p is the chi-squared distribution with p degrees of freedom. {{math proof|Every positive-semidefinite symmetric matrix \boldsymbol M has a positive-semidefinite symmetric square root \boldsymbol M^{1/2} , and if it is nonsingular, then its inverse has a positive-definite square root \boldsymbol M^{-1/2} . Since \operatorname{var}\left( \overline{\boldsymbol x} \right) = \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\mathbf x} , we have \begin{align} \operatorname{var} \left( \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{-1/2} \overline{\boldsymbol x} \right) & = \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{-1/2} \Big( \operatorname{var}\left( \overline{\boldsymbol x} \right) \Big) \left( \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{-1/2} \right)^T \\[5pt] & = \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{-1/2} \Big( \operatorname{var}\left( \overline{\boldsymbol x} \right) \Big) \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{-1/2} \text{ because } \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x} \text{ is symmetric} \\[5pt] & = \left( \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{-1/2} \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{1/2} \right) \left( \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{1/2} \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{\boldsymbol x}^{-1/2} \right) \\[5pt] & = \mathbf I_p. \end{align} Consequently (\overline{\boldsymbol x}- \boldsymbol \mu)^T \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{x}^{-1} (\overline{\boldsymbol x}- \boldsymbol \mu) = \left( \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{x}^{-1/2} (\overline{\boldsymbol x}- \boldsymbol \mu) \right)^T \left( \mathbf\Sigma_\overline{x}^{-1/2} (\overline{\boldsymbol x}- \boldsymbol \mu) \right) and this is simply the sum of squares of p independent standard normal random variables. Thus its distribution is \chi^2_p. }} Alternatively, one can argue using density functions and characteristic functions, as follows. {{math proof| To show this use the fact that \overline{\mathbf x}\sim \mathcal{N}_p(\boldsymbol{\mu},{\mathbf \Sigma}/n) and derive the characteristic function of the random variable \mathbf y = (\bar{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mu})'{\mathbf \Sigma}_\bar{\mathbf x}^{-1}(\bar{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mathbf\mu}) = (\bar{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mu})'({\mathbf \Sigma} / n)^{-1}(\bar{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mathbf\mu}). As usual, let | \cdot | denote the determinant of the argument, as in | \boldsymbol\Sigma |. By definition of characteristic function, we have: \begin{align} \varphi_{\mathbf y}(\theta) &=\operatorname{E} e^{i \theta \mathbf y}, \\[5pt] &= \operatorname{E} e^{i \theta (\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mu})'({\mathbf \Sigma}/n)^{-1}(\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mathbf\mu})} \\[5pt] &= \int e^{i \theta (\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mu})'n{\mathbf \Sigma}^{-1}(\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol{\mathbf\mu})} (2\pi)^{-p/2} |\boldsymbol{\Sigma}/n|^{-1/2}\, e^{ -(1/2) (\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol\mu)' n \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1} (\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol\mu) } \, dx_1 \cdots dx_p \end{align} There are two exponentials inside the integral, so by multiplying the exponentials we add the exponents together, obtaining: \begin{align} &= \int (2\pi)^{-p/2}| \boldsymbol\Sigma/n|^{-1/2}\, e^{ -(1/2)(\overline{\mathbf x} - \boldsymbol\mu)' n(\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})(\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol\mu) }\,dx_1 \cdots dx_p \end{align} Now take the term |\boldsymbol\Sigma/n|^{-1/2} off the integral, and multiply everything by an identity I = |(\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})^{-1} / n|^{1/2} \;\cdot\; |(\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})^{-1} / n|^{-1/2}, bringing one of them inside the integral: \begin{align} &= |(\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})^{-1} / n|^{1/2} |\boldsymbol\Sigma/n|^{-1/2} \int (2\pi)^{-p/2} |(\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})^{-1} / n|^{-1/2} \, e^{ -(1/2)n(\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol\mu)'(\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})(\overline{\mathbf x}-\boldsymbol\mu) }\,dx_1 \cdots dx_p \end{align} But the term inside the integral is precisely the probability density function of a multivariate normal distribution with covariance matrix (\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})^{-1} / n = \left[ n (\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}) \right]^{-1} and mean \mu, so when integrating over all x_1, \dots, x_p, it must yield 1 per the probability axioms. We thus end up with: \begin{align} & = \left|(\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})^{-1} \cdot \frac{1}{n} \right|^{1/2} |\boldsymbol\Sigma/n|^{-1/2} \\ & = \left|(\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}-2 i \theta \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1})^{-1} \cdot \frac{1}{\cancel{n}} \cdot \cancel{n} \cdot \boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1} \right|^{1/2} \\ & = \left| \left[ (\cancel{\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}} -2i \theta \cancel{\boldsymbol\Sigma^{-1}} ) \cancel{\boldsymbol\Sigma} \right]^{-1} \right|^{1/2} \\ & = |\mathbf I_p-2 i \theta \mathbf I_p|^{-1/2} \end{align} where I_p is an identity matrix of dimension p. Finally, calculating the determinant, we obtain: \begin{align} & = (1-2 i \theta)^{-p/2} \end{align} which is the characteristic function for a chi-square distribution with p degrees of freedom. \;\;\;\blacksquare }} ==Two-sample statistic==
Two-sample statistic
If {\mathbf x}_1,\dots,{\mathbf x}_{n_x}\sim N_p(\boldsymbol{\mu},{\mathbf \Sigma}) and {\mathbf y}_1,\dots,{\mathbf y}_{n_y}\sim N_p(\boldsymbol{\mu},{\mathbf \Sigma}), with the samples independently drawn from two independent multivariate normal distributions with the same mean and covariance, and we define \overline{\mathbf x}=\frac{1}{n_x}\sum_{i=1}^{n_x} \mathbf{x}_i \qquad \overline{\mathbf y}=\frac{1}{n_y}\sum_{i=1}^{n_y} \mathbf{y}_i as the sample means, and \begin{align} \hat{\mathbf \Sigma}_{\mathbf x} &= \frac{1}{n_x-1}\sum_{i=1}^{n_x} \left(\mathbf{x}_i-\overline{\mathbf x}\right) \left(\mathbf{x}_i-\overline{\mathbf x}\right)' \\ \hat{\mathbf \Sigma}_{\mathbf y}&= \frac{1}{n_y-1}\sum_{i=1}^{n_{y}} \left(\mathbf{y}_i-\overline{\mathbf y}\right) \left(\mathbf{y}_i-\overline{\mathbf y}\right)' \end{align} as the respective sample covariance matrices. Then \hat{\mathbf \Sigma}= \frac{(n_x - 1) \hat{\mathbf \Sigma}_{\mathbf x} + (n_y - 1) \hat{\mathbf \Sigma}_{\mathbf y}}{n_x+n_y-2} is the unbiased pooled covariance matrix estimate (an extension of pooled variance). Finally, the '''Hotelling's two-sample t-squared statistic''' is t^2 = \frac{n_x n_y}{n_x+n_y}(\overline{\mathbf x}-\overline{\mathbf y})'\hat{\mathbf \Sigma}^{-1}(\overline{\mathbf x}-\overline{\mathbf y}) \sim T^2(p, n_x+n_y-2) Related concepts It can be related to the F-distribution by ==See also==
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