Hurricane Joaquin

On September 25, 2015, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring an upper-level low, accompanied by a surface trough, several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda, for possible tropical cyclogenesis. The system gradually consolidated as it drifted north-northwest, acquiring a closed surface low late on September 26. Convective showers and thunderstorms steadily increased on September 27, and at 00:00 UTC on September 28 the NHC assessed the system to have become a tropical depression, situated roughly 400 mi (640 km) southwest of Bermuda. and early on September 29, Dvorak satellite classifications indicated the system became a tropical storm. Accordingly, it was assigned the name Joaquin, becoming the tenth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. Strengthening of the mid-level ridge prompted a sudden shift in Joaquin's trajectory to the southwest, directing it towards the Bahamas. Forecasters at the NHC noted considerable uncertainty in the future of Joaquin, as forecast models depicted a wide range of possibilities for both track and intensity. Throughout September 29, the storm steadily intensified as its circulation became embedded within deep convection and upper-level outflow became increasingly prominent. High sea surface temperatures—around 1.1 °C (2.0 °F) above normal Rapid intensification ensued thereafter as an eye developed within a symmetric central dense overcast. Data from aircraft reconnaissance indicated that Joaquin reached Category 3 status on the Saffir–Simpson scale by 00:00 UTC on October 1, thereby becoming the second major hurricane of the season. During this intensification phase, its eye contracted from in diameter. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 931 mbar (hPa; ) around 00:00 UTC on October 2, and the winds rose further to . Reconnaissance aircraft also noted the presence of a double wind maximum, suggesting the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle—a process whereby a second, larger eye develops while the inner eye collapses. Joaquin's eye became increasingly ill-defined in satellite imagery, and the winds decreased to . The hurricane made landfalls on Rum Cay and San Salvador Island on October 2 at around 16:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC, respectively; An amplifying trough over the Southeastern United States enhanced southwesterly flow over Joaquin on October 3 and prompted the hurricane to accelerate northeast away from the Bahamas. Throughout the day the storm's eye became increasingly defined and re-intensification ensued. Aircraft reconnaissance found a considerably stronger system that afternoon: flight-level winds reached and the aircraft's stepped frequency microwave radiometer estimated surface winds of up to . The NHC assessed that Joaquin became a high-end Category 4 hurricane with winds of by 12:00 UTC, making Joaquin the strongest Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era that did not form from a tropical wave or disturbance (as intense hurricanes typically do). On October 4, the storm curved towards the north-northeast between a large low-pressure system to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east. As deep convection over its core continued to wane, Joaquin passed about west-northwest of Bermuda near 00:00 UTC on October 5, with winds of . Joaquin gradually turned northeastward around the periphery of the weak ridge, and subsequently accelerated toward the east-northeast as it entered the prevailing westerlies. The system maintained hurricane intensity until 15:00 UTC on October 7, by which point strengthening wind shear and an increasingly colder environment began to take their toll. The cloud pattern became lopsided as colder, drier air infiltrated the circulation, forming the first stages of a frontal structure. With its extratropical transition well underway, Joaquin lost its identity as a tropical cyclone at 00:00 UTC on October 8, roughly west-northwest of the northwestern Azores. During the next several days, Joaquin's extratropical remnant continued heading eastward across the Atlantic, reaching Portugal on October 12. Joaquin's remnant then slowly moved southward along the coast as it spun down, eventually dissipating over the Gulf of Cádiz on October 15. ==Preparations==

Tropical cyclone watches and warnings were posted throughout the Bahamas starting early on September 30 (UTC); by October 1, hurricane warnings extended from Grand Bahama Island in the northwest to Mayaguana in the southeast. As the storm moved away, the last advisories were discontinued by the morning of October 3. All schools on Exuma, Cat Island, San Salvador, and Rum Cay closed on the afternoon of October 1. Bahamasair cancelled multiple domestic flights, and most airports throughout the island nation were closed, pending post-storm runway inspections. Several cruise ships scheduled to arrive at New Providence were diverted to other ports on October 2. The nation's National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) activated its Emergency Operations Center, As conditions worsened, residents in southern islands of the Bahamas criticized the government for providing inadequate warning, with no emergency preparations taking place on Acklins. NEMA refuted the claim and stated people were given ample warning but many residents refused to evacuate. In some instances, police were called in to forcibly move people to shelters. Two cruise ships were redirected from Grand Turk Island, and Providenciales International Airport suspended operations for a time. The islands were placed under a tropical storm warning on October 1. From Joaquin's genesis on September 28 till October 1, several weather models indicated Joaquin could make landfall on or closely approach the East Coast of the United States. New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia (including the City of Norfolk) to declare states of emergency. A mandatory evacuation order for Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, was placed at 3:00 p.m. EDT (19:00 UTC) on October 1. In New Jersey, the annual Bike MS: City to Shore Ride was canceled for the first time in its 35-year history. Joaquin eventually turned northeastwards and did not directly impact the United States. and a hurricane warning was in effect late on October 3. As a precaution, Royal Bermuda Regiment soldiers were placed on standby, and some emergency equipment was stationed on the east end of the Causeway to prepare for the possibility of the road becoming impassable; officials ultimately closed the Causeway late on October 4, near the height of the storm, and partially reopened it the next morning. By October 3, two cruise ships had canceled their scheduled stops to Bermuda. Most commercial flights to and from the island on October 4 were canceled, and L.F. Wade International Airport suspended all operations that afternoon. Public and private schools were scheduled to close on October 5, though one institution was prepared for use as an emergency shelter. The approaching hurricane halted ferry and bus services. ==Impacts==

Bahamas Joaquin was one of the strongest known hurricanes to impact the Bahamas, as well as the strongest October hurricane to affect the country since 1866. Initial claims of numerous casualties throughout the island chain proved unsubstantiated, Several weeks after the storm, officials estimated that 836 residences had been destroyed, including 413 on Long Island, 227 on San Salvador Island, 123 on Acklins, 50 on Crooked Island, and 23 on Rum Cay. About half the overall costs (US$59.8 million) were attributed to infrastructure damage, with housing contributing to another one-third (US$37.4 million). Reports of flooding and people in need of assistance were received from Acklins, Crooked Island, Exuma, and Long Island. Power and communication failures plagued the nation's southeastern islands, leaving several islands effectively isolated in the immediate aftermath of Joaquin. The hurricane took all 59 cell sites belonging to the Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC) offline. The Bahamas Department of Meteorology estimated that Joaquin brought of rain to the central and southeastern Bahamas. Septic tank seepage contaminated residential wells, leaving residents without clean drinking water. Acklins endured severe flooding, with many homes inundated and numerous calls for rescue; the island's sea barrier was breached by 9:00 a.m. local time (13:00 UTC) on October 1. Some residents reported the entire island to be under water. The health center in Spring Point, situated next to the ocean, was badly damaged by flooding and all medical supplies stored there were lost. A bridge in Lovely Bay was completely destroyed. Significant standing water was observed on Crooked Island and Acklins even on October 7. Southern areas of the island suffered considerable devastation; the surge washed out coastal roadways and drove numerous fishing boats ashore. The district's Member of Parliament, Loretta Butler-Turner, estimated that 75% of all fishing vessels there were destroyed. This, combined with heavy losses to farms and crops, threatened the livelihoods of many residents. The bodies of dead animals were seen floating in the water. Strong winds unroofed dozens of homes, and many structures were fully destroyed. The winds and flooding took a large toll on native vegetation, even well inland. A number of homes were damaged or destroyed in the district; two grocery stores also sustained damage. Joaquin also damaged power lines in Exuma, where "extreme" flooding was reported. There was modest structural damage on Mayaguana, the easternmost island of the Bahamas. On San Salvador Island, large swells ahead of the storm's arrival in the Bahamas washed out a main road. The island's main power plant in Cockburn Town lost its roof, resulting in rainwater damaging the generators and spare parts. At least 70% of fishermen residing on the island lost their boats.—went missing near Crooked Island with 33 crew members (28 Americans and 5 Poles) amid seas near the hurricane's eyewall. The vessel was last reported to have lost propulsion and begun to list around 7:30 a.m. EDT (11:30 UTC) on October 1. Hurricane hunters aircraft investigating the storm flew much lower than normal in an unsuccessful effort to locate the stricken ship. The United States Coast Guard conducted searches during the day of October 2 without success; efforts resumed at dawn on October 3. Two debris fields were discovered: one spanning near the El Faro's last known position, and the other covering about to the north; The joint mission conducted by the Coast Guard, Air Force, Navy, Air National Guard, and commercial tugboats covered more than in search of the vessel and its crew. The Coast Guard called off search operations at sunset on October 7, with the ship and her crew presumed lost. A Navy salvage team was requested, at the behest of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), to search for the wreckage. USNS Apache resumed the search on October 23, and using side-scan sonar found the wreckage of a cargo ship at a depth of on October 31. This was confirmed to be the El Faro the next day using a deep-ocean remotely-operated vehicle. The voyage data recorder was only found and retrieved nine months later, on August 9, 2016. The Coast Guard's overall report on the incident, released on October 1, 2017, placed the blame mostly on the ship's captain for underestimating the weather conditions, overestimating the ship's capabilities, and not reacting sufficiently as the weather worsened. The NTSB's investigation, which concluded on December 12, 2017, also criticized the captain for failing to listen to other crew members warning him about the intensifying storm, but highlighted that the El Faro had not been kept up to date with modern safety regulations, such as its use of open lifeboats instead of enclosed ones. Remainder of the West Indies In the Turks and Caicos Islands, heavy rains and storm surge from Joaquin compromised infrastructure, including roadways, docks, and bulkheads. The seawall along Front Street on Grand Turk Island was damaged, prompting officials to close part of the road. Multiple homes along the coast faced flooding and leaking roofs. In several areas, pounding surf brought about coastal erosion and deposited large volumes of seaweed. Though the storm's center remained north of the Greater Antilles, some coastal areas experienced rough winds and high seas. In Cuba, the station at Guantánamo Bay recorded gusts of 55 mph (89 km/h). The storm caused coastal flooding and damage to roofs in Granma Province, affecting more than 100 homes; a provincial high rainfall total of was observed at Niquero. In coastal Baracoa, fifty homes were damaged. Rain from the storm somewhat alleviated conditions from a record drought in Granma, Guantánamo, and Santiago de Cuba provinces, though 11 reservoirs remained below 30% capacity in Santiago de Cuba. Along the northern coast of Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula, high waves from the hurricane capsized a boat occupied by two fishermen, killing one of them. Many communes experienced significant coastal flooding from storm tides and active seas, which drove water up to half a kilometer (0.3 mi) inland. More than 100 homes in Artibonite were inundated, and the main road to Anse-Rouge was impassable. Strong winds brought down multiple trees in the commune of Grand-Saline, where severe flooding was also reported. In Nippes and Nord-Ouest, four emergency shelters housed nearly 300 individuals. Joaquin damaged banana and millet fields, killed a small number of livestock, and triggered several landslides. Bermuda As conditions worsened throughout October 4, roadways on Bermuda became obstructed by debris and floodwaters, and electric crews combated growing power outages. By the next morning, the hurricane had cut power to over 15,000 customers. Service was returned to the vast majority of households by October 8, despite further inclement weather briefly impeding restoration work. Sustained winds of gusting to were recorded at L.F. Wade International Airport; at higher elevations elsewhere, gusts reached as high as . The historic Commissioner's House at the Bermuda Maritime Museum lost the last of its original roof, which had been heavily damaged by hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo in October 2014; the interior of the building consequently suffered some water damage. The airport reopened by midday on October 5, with damage mostly limited to a toppled section of perimeter fence. == Aftermath ==

Bahamas In the immediate aftermath of Joaquin, damage to airports and floodwaters obstructing roads meant initial relief efforts were slow, and storm victims relied on helicopters, seaplanes, and watercraft to deliver supplies. Workers gradually cleared runways for emergency use in the days following the storm, By October 4, the Government of Jamaica and the United States Agency for International Development had donated 50 tonnes and just over 32 tonnes, respectively, of emergency supplies to the Bahamas. Private groups, local businesses, and non-governmental organizations, such as the Bahamas Red Cross, started donation drives and began distributing goods to storm victims. NEMA received donations of US$1 million from the Utilities Regulation and Competition Authority in conjunction with BTC, and US$50,000 from the Progressive Liberal Party; further private sector donations totaled just over US$600,000. BTC also repaired and returned most of their cell sites to service within two weeks. A special committee was formed to oversee reconstruction efforts, while government officials began considering new laws to enact stricter building codes. The government pledged to help eligible homeowners rebuild and repair their property. On October 6, Prime Minister of the Bahamas Perry Christie signed an order waiving import duties on materials needed for rebuilding by storm victims and registered charities on 12 islands. Local leaders called for an extension of the three-month exemption period, which many saw as inadequate. In what residents feared to be a major economic setback, storm-related damage forced Club Med to delay the annual opening of its San Salvador resort—the largest employer on the island—by two months; the resort eventually reopened by January 2016. At the end of October, NEMA began to shift its focus from emergency relief distribution to permanent rebuilding efforts. Economists at the IDB assessed that the effects of Joaquin caused the Bahamian monthly gross domestic product to decrease by 2.8%. The Ministry of Finance estimated in October 2016 that the cost of rebuilding after Joaquin would be around US$200 million. Joaquin was the first of four major hurricanes to affect the Bahamas in four years: Hurricane Matthew struck the following year, Hurricane Irma in 2017, and Hurricane Dorian in 2019. The four hurricanes resulted in a combined US$4.2 billion in losses across the country. Retirement Because of the severe damage in the Bahamas and the deaths at sea caused by the storm, the name Joaquin was retired by the World Meteorological Organization in April 2016. The name was replaced with Julian for the 2021 season. ==See also==