As early as September 28, the
National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipated that a
low pressure area would form south of
Mexico, assessing a 20% chance of
tropical cyclogenesis within seven days. Two days later, the NHC increased the potential for development to 70% – this was related to a
tropical wave south of Mexico producing an area of thunderstorms, known as
convection. On October 2, the convection became more concentrated, supported by favorable environmental conditions, and a low pressure area developed. At 09:00
UTC on October 3, the NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Lidia, due to sufficient organization of the weather system. By that time, the thunderstorms had organized into curved
rainbands, and the low pressure area had evolved into a well-defined circulation producing
sustained winds of at least 40 mph (65 km/h). (right) nearing landfall, on October 9 Upon its formation, Lidia was expected to intensify to hurricane status within five days, due to
sea surface temperatures of around and ample moisture. The thunderstorms continued to pulse over the center as Lidia moved north-northwestward, a path steered by a
ridge over Mexico. Despite the wind shear, Lidia was able to continue to intensify. By October 6, the storm turned toward the west, as the circulation become more closely aligned with the deepest convection, a sign of a maturing tropical cyclone. Later that day, the wind shear nearly exposed the center from the thunderstorms, although the intensity had increased to just below hurricane-force, or winds of 74 mph (118 km/h). By that time,
hurricane models had conflicting simulations for the future of Lidia. In the storm's immediate future, there was a consensus that a mid-latitude
trough would steer the storm northward. Some computer models anticipated that the wind shear would remain strong enough to weaken the storm, while others predicted that it would intensify while moving toward the western coast of Mexico. On October 7, Lidia began its anticipated turn to the north. With the wind shear continuing to affect, there was still uncertainty in the storm's future. That day, the NHC forecast included a hurricane
landfall in the Mexican state of
Nayarit. By October 8, Lidia's structure had become more organized, with the center under the deepest convection, and a mid-level
eye forming. The lower- and mid-level circulations were displaced, while the intrusion of drier air prevented more immediate intensification. On October 9, Lidia began its turn to the northeast, influenced by the approaching mid-level trough, which provided more favorable upper-level support. Concurrently, the convection increased over the center, signaling the start of an intensifying trend, which the NHC expected would continue up to the coast. Late on October 9, the
Hurricane Hunters flew into Lidia, observing a developing inner core of the cyclone, with a central
barometric pressure of . Early on October 10, the storm intensified into a hurricane while located about 365 mi (590 km) southwest of
Puerto Vallarta. As Lidia approached the Mexican coast, it developed an eyewall as it intensified into a Category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. It then
rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane by 21:30 UTC on October 10, making landfall two hours later near Las Peñitas in the Mexican state of
Jalisco, just south of
Puerto Vallarta, at peak intensity, with winds of 140 mph (220 km/h). Once inland, Lidia rapidly weakened over the mountainous terrain of western Mexico. The eye quickly degraded and the convection diminished. By 09:00 UTC on October 11, the storm lost its well-defined center, less than ten hours after landfall. Lidia's remnants continued northeastward across northern Mexico, producing a large area of rainfall. == Preparations and impact ==