Judgement in psychology In
cognitive psychology (and related fields like
experimental philosophy,
social psychology,
behavioral economics, or
experimental economics), judgement is part of a set of cognitive processes by which individuals reason, make decisions, and form beliefs and opinions (collectively, judgement and decision making, abbreviated JDM). This involves evaluating information, weighing evidence, making choices, and coming to conclusions. Judgements are often influenced by
cognitive biases,
heuristics, prior experience, social context, abilities (e.g.,
numeracy, probabilistic thinking), and psychological traits (e.g., tendency toward
analytical reasoning). In research, the
Society for Judgment and Decision Making is an international academic society dedicated to the topic; they publish the peer-reviewed journal
Judgment and Decision Making. Research by
Daniel Kahneman and
Amos Tversky in the 1970s and 1980s identified
psychological heuristics, such as the
availability heuristic and
anchoring, which often lead to predictable cognitive biases. Their theory formalized how people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point, predicting
loss aversion (valuing losses twice as much as equivalent gains). This has applications in
behavioral economics and the design of
policies. Kahneman's later works, including
Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), distinguish "System 1" (intuitive judgements) from "System 2" (deliberative judgements).
Judgement in neuroscience Recent advances in
cognitive neuroscience have mapped judgement processes to brain regions like the
prefrontal cortex, often examining how
intuitive decisions are processed, as shown in
fMRI studies of
risk assessment. In
artificial intelligence,
large language models (e.g.,
GPT-4) replicate human judgement biases such as
loss aversion and the
gambler's fallacy. This raises concerns for judicial prediction, though they improve accuracy in planned tasks. == Judgement in ethics ==