Foreign policy In a 2014 article for Foreign Policy, "ISIS Is
Sisi Spelled Backwards," he warned against the notion that Arabs are "forced to either support the ruling autocrats in return for safety and stability, or to side with Islamist radicals in order to throw off the tyrants' yoke and avenge their transgressions." He argues that both nationalist fascism and Islamist radicalism are failures for true change in the Arab world, as tyranny and terrorism feed off each other in a worsening cycle. He also critiques Western nations for legitimising oppressive governments while ignoring human rights abuses and democratic alternatives. In his keynote address at the
Norad conference in February 2023, he emphasised that hypocrisy, rather than autocracy, poses the greatest threat to democracy. On December 26, 2015, a Russian news outlet confused Baghdadi with ISIS leader
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Other media began echoing the mistake, and Twitter blocked him briefly. The confusion itself ended up becoming a major news story.
Radicalization research In 2015, during the height of the
ISIS wave, Baghdadi developed "The Radicalisation Roadmap," which explains how radicalisation narratives are constructed. Based on his observations of individuals' experiences with different radical ideologies, the model outlines seven steps: •
Otherization: 'I am of one group, they are from another. We are different and separate.' •
Collectivization: 'They are all the same.' •
Oppression narrative: 'They are oppressing us.' •
Collective guilt: 'They are complicit in oppressing us.' •
Supremacism narrative: 'We are better than them.' •
Self-defense: 'We have to retaliate for their aggression and defend ourselves.' •
The idea of violence: 'Violence is the only way.'" He later developed the 'Populist Grand Narrative,' which seeks to explain the process of collective radicalization and outlines the structure of populist narratives in four steps: • 'We were once great, virtuous, and homogenous.' • 'Our sovereignty has been robbed by traitors and foreigners.' • 'We must reclaim our sovereignty.' • 'This great, strong, punitive leader will make us great again.'
The Middle East Crisis Factory His 2021 book with Ahmed Gatnash,
The Middle East Crisis Factory, argues against monocausal analyses of geopolitical crises in the MENA region. It instead argues that a trifecta of terrorism, tyranny, and foreign interventions is to blame for the region's recurrent crises. The book's policy recommendations include empowering grassroots activists, constraining coercive autocrats, and inspire youths to retain a modicum of hope for the future.
Views on Palestine Baghdadi is a prominent advocate for Palestinian rights, particularly supporting a one-state solution. He argues that a two-state solution is both unworkable and undesirable, suggesting that the only way forward is for Palestinians and Israelis to coexist as equal citizens within a single state. He considers the fight for the Palestinian cause to be intrinsically linked with the fight against tyranny throughout the region. He also emphasizes the need to oppose violence and antisemitism, noting that both harm the cause.
The Kawaakibi Foundation Baghdadi cofounded the human rights organisation Kawaakibi Foundation, named after
Abd al-Rahman al-Kawakibi. He also contributes to its podcast, the Arab Tyrant Manual. Under Kawaakibi, he created "The Jamal Khashoggi Disinfo Monitor" to analyze disinformation networks and strategies used by governmental and non-governmental entities, aiming to educate the public about these threats.
Other contributions Baghdadi features in
The Dissident, a movie following the aftermath of the assassination of
Jamal Khashoggi, with whom he collaborated. He is a fellow of
Civita and has written extensively about policy, religion, and radicalization for Norwegian media. ==Security threats==