In the wake of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Austria-Hungary's devised a meticulously orchestrated response in collaboration with the German Reich, aimed at Serbia.
The German "blank check" Despite differing perspectives among Austrians and Hungarians, the leaders of the
Austro-Hungarian Empire agreed on the importance of seeking counsel from Germany. On July 2, Austro-Hungarian diplomats were promptly apprised of Kaiser
Wilhelm II's stance. The German ambassador in Vienna urged
Berchtold to act with prudence and cautioned him against hastily assigning blame on the Serbian government. On July 4, German diplomats briefed their counterparts in Vienna on the Kaiser's position. Wilhelm II conveyed his personal support for his ally in a statement that reiterated positions he had taken the previous autumn: He expressed his willingness to back the Dual Monarchy should it take decisive action against Serbia. Support was formally confirmed to the Austro-Hungarian envoy on July 6, 1914. On July 5, Count
Hoyos arrived in Berlin, seeking German support for Austro-Hungarian measures against Belgrade. He carried a handwritten letter from Franz Joseph to Wilhelm II and a memorandum that was highly critical of Serbia. In the days following the assassination, Wilhelm II had held extensive consultations with his ministers and advisors; their response was to be positive. Reassured by the Kaiser, Austro-Hungarian leaders began preparing their measures against Serbia. German officials now urged swift action to capitalize on the outrage sparked by the attack. Wilhelm II assured the Romanians that the Central Powers would respect their sovereign neutrality in the event of any Austro-Serbian conflict.
Bulgaria, the Central Powers' newest member, had recently threatened to invade Romania's southern flank, further guaranteeing Romanian neutrality. But the Reich did not limit itself to mere declarations of support or try to maintain a diplomatic balancing act, as observed by historian
Fritz Fischer. To limit the oncoming Austro-Serbian conflict, Germany also courted Serbia's potential allies in a bid to steer them away from aiding Belgrade. In a statement made on July 21 and 22—one day before the issuance of the ultimatum—
Reich Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg expressed his view that the Austro-Hungarian note to Serbia was "fair and moderate." On July 24, a circular from the
German Foreign Ministry instructed Reich ambassadors to underscore the bilateral nature of the Austro-Serbian dispute. Moreover, Germany's ambassador in Vienna,
Heinrich Leonard von Tschirschky und Bögendorff, exerted considerable influence over the Austro-Hungarian monarchy through his daily interactions and frequent meetings with key policymakers. He advocated for a robust response as a means of restoring the monarchy's waning prestige. It was assumed by officials from both the Reich and Austria-Hungary that a rapid offensive, limited to the capture of
Belgrade and its surroundings, would present the
Triple Entente with a
fait accompli.
The different centers of power in Austria-Hungary (July 7–23) . Throughout the crisis, various institutions within the Dual Monarchy exerted contradictory pressures on Austro-Hungarian foreign policy. The common War Minister
Alexander von Krobatin, Foreign Minister Berchtold, and Chief of the General Staff
Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf all advocated for prompt military action. However, they encountered resistance from
Hungarian Prime Minister
István Tisza, who was loath to see the Dual Monarchy seen abroad as the aggressor. Emperor
Franz Joseph endorsed a resolute policy towards Serbia. Despite his disinclination towards his slain nephew and successor, the Emperor was determined to safeguard his dynasty and his dominions from any external encroachment. The emperor had the support of powerful friends including
Alexander Hoyos, Janos Forgach, Alexander von Musulin, and Franz von Matscheko, as well as the Chief of Staff
Conrad von Hötzendorf and Foreign Minister Berchtold. Collectively, these figures exerted considerable influence which enabled the emperor in his confrontation with Serbia. The emperor insisted on establishing the involvement of Serbian intelligence in the assassination in order to secure Berlin's support before any Austro-Hungarian initiative, and to persuade Tisza to approve military action against the Kingdom of Belgrade. Tisza feared a violent response by minority Slav populations in Hungary to any military action against Serbia. His stance put him at odds with other officials in the Dual Monarchy. From the outset, he encountered resistance from the military, particularly from Conrad, who wanted a swift assault on Belgrade without an ultimatum or declaration of war. Tisza persisted throughout the Austro-Hungarian Council of Ministers on July 7 and in the subsequent days until July 14. He invoked a memorandum he had drafted on June 30 outlining his position on the matter. On July 7 he put forth an alternative diplomatic solution that aimed to bolster alliances with
Bulgaria and
Romania. His strategy sought to isolate Belgrade and compel Serbian leaders to concede to Austro-Hungarian demands. But Tisza relented to the majority and gave his consent to their demands was ultimately obtained on July 14. Germany ambassador
Heinrich von Tschirschky, sent the news to Berlin that same day. and
Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, in
Vienna, July 15, 1914. During a joint council of ministers in Vienna on July 19, Tisza dropped his remaining objections after consulting with his close associate
Stephan Burián von Rajecz. He also had Conrad's guarantee—contrary to Berchtold's concerns—that the monarchy would not emerge from the conflict without territorial gains and that
Hungarian Transylvania would be safeguarded against potential Romanian offensives.
Bulgaria, would also receive annexed Serbian territories. This did not resolve all of Tisza's objections, however. His objections were substantial: Romania's likely demands for compensation for their neutrality; Bulgaria's future as an expanded state; the successor to the
Karageorgevic dynasty; and the prospect of Russian intervention and its military consequences. Relations between allies grew tense. Austro-Hungarian officials stopped communicating their plans to their German counterparts through July 22, the day before the ultimatum was delivered; the Austro-Hungarians objected to the conduct of the German diplomats and found reason to question the German Secretary of State's ability to maintain secrecy.
The kingdom of Serbia in the aftermath of the assassination , Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Serbia in 1914. In the hours following the assassination, officials of the Dual Monarchy, with the support of information provided by the imperial and royal ambassador in Belgrade, directed their attention to the Serbian capital. The preliminary interrogations of suspects appeared to substantiate the Austro-Hungarian suspicions. On July 1,
Danilo Ilić, an arrested conspirator during police raids on
Bosnian-Herzegovinian Serbian nationalist circles, revealed the plot's extensive connections. However, establishing connections to the Kingdom of Serbia proved challenging, partly due to the behavior of prisoners implicated by Ilić. This conclusion is further supported by the observations of Austro-Hungarian diplomats regarding the attitudes of the population within the kingdom. Despite the government in Belgrade's declaration of an official mourning period of eight weeks, which was subsequently reduced to eight days, the population expressed its vehement discontent, and the nationalist press launched impassioned attacks against Austria-Hungary. This occurred despite the appeals of Serbian diplomats stationed in other European countries and the disapproval of the Dual Monarchy. In response, the Serbian government invoked its constitution, which prohibited restrictions on press freedom, as justification for its inaction. Moreover, Austro-Hungarian diplomatic requests for an investigation into the connections of the conspiracy within Serbia yielded no tangible results, largely due to the lack of cooperation from Serbian investigators. Furthermore, the electoral context in Serbia did not motivate the government to challenge the most radical nationalists. Nevertheless, as early as June 29, Prime Minister
Nikola Pašić articulated in a public address that the Kingdom of Serbia would defend itself in the event of an Austro-Hungarian assault. As outlined by Pašić, the Serbian response unfolded in three distinct phases. These phases reflect a cautious balancing act on the part of the government, which demonstrated a consistent willingness to cooperate with the Dual Monarchy's police throughout the crisis. The initial phase, spanning from June 28 to July 15, was characterized by a cautious and measured approach. The second phase commenced on July 15, following Hungary's decision to adopt a policy of retaliation against Serbia, which persisted until the issuance of the ultimatum. The third phase commenced with the ultimatum's delivery, influencing Serbia's response to the evolving crisis. == A deliberate Austro-Hungarian response ==