Australia The
Australian Electoral Commission defines seat margins as follows:
Federal Following the
2022 federal election, 51 of the 151 seats in the
House of Representatives are considered "marginal". The most marginal is the
Division of Gilmore in New South Wales, held by the
Labor Party on a margin of 0.17% against the
Liberal Party. This seat was retained by Labor by just over 300 votes.
New South Wales Following the
2023 state election, 18 of the 93 seats in the
New South Wales Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is
Ryde, held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Labor Party. This seat was won by
Jordan Lane by just 50 votes on the first count (and 54 on the recount), successfully succeeding outgoing Liberal MP
Victor Dominello. It is believed that the seat became marginal due to the Dominello's departure, due to his popularity in the area.
Northern Territory Following the
2024 general election, eight of the 25 seats in the
Northern Territory Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is
Nightcliff, held by the
Greens on a margin of 0.4% against the
Labor Party, who lost the seat by just 36 votes.
Queensland Following the
2020 state election, 29 of the 93 seats in the
Legislative Assembly of Queensland are marginal seats. The most marginal is the
Bundaberg, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.01% against the
Liberal National Party, who lost the seat by just nine votes.
South Australia Following the
2022 state election, 17 of the 47 seats in the
South Australian Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is
Dunstan, held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Labor Party. Notably, this seat is held by former Liberal leader
Steven Marshall, who was also the state's
Premier until this election.
Victoria Following the
2022 state election, 28 of the 88 seats in the
Victorian Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The two most marginal are
Bass and
Northcote, both of which are held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.2% against the Liberal Party and the
Greens, respectively.
Western Australia Following the
2021 state election, just five of the 59 seats in the
Western Australian Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is
Churchlands, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Liberal Party.
Indonesia A marginal electoral district is formed when strong, well known candidates had gathered around in a single electoral district. An electoral district in Indonesia possesses a limited amount of seats to be elected as a member of
House of Representatives, forcing each candidates to fight hard against one another disregarding any coalition lines to seek votes. Well known marginal districts include: •
Jakarta II electoral district that covers
South Jakarta,
Central Jakarta and overseas voters. It is often contested by well known figures such as
Hidayat Nur Wahid,
Once Mekel and
Tsamara Amany. •
Yogyakarta electoral district which covers the
Special Region of Yogyakarta with only 8 seats often contested by figures such as
Roy Suryo,
Titiek Suharto,
Ahmad Hanafi Rais (son of
Amien Rais) and others. •
North Sumatra I electoral district that covers most of
Medan metropolitan area with 10 seats allocated. This electoral district is often hotly contested with figures such as
Yasonna Laoly,
Ruhut Sitompul,
Meutya Hafid, and
Musa Rajekshah.
United States In the United States, examples of congressional districts considered marginal include
Illinois's 10th congressional district, located in the northern suburbs of
Chicago,
Texas's 23rd congressional district, covering most of Texas' border with Mexico, and
New Hampshire's 1st congressional district, which includes much of the state's eastern half, including its most populous city
Manchester. In the 2010s, these three districts frequently switched partisan control and had close races, making them examples of marginal seats. However, political realignments and
redistricting may cause traditionally marginal districts to become safe for one party or another. An example of the former is
Indiana's 8th congressional district, which was nicknamed the "Bloody Eighth" for its history of ousting incumbents from both the
Democratic and
Republican parties. However, as rural white voters, who are a large percentage of the district's population , became increasingly Republican, it is considered a safely Republican seat . On the other hand,
North Carolina's 11th congressional district is an example of a seat that lost its marginal status due to
redistricting. It was formerly a highly competitive seat, albeit with a slight Republican lean, that often changed partisan hands. The Democratic base in the district was the city of
Asheville, while Republicans were dominant in much of the city's suburbs, and the mountainous rural areas were evenly split between the two parties. However, the Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the district in 2012 to remove much of Asheville and add Republican-leaning territory from the adjacent
10th district, therefore making the district much more difficult to win for three-term incumbent
Heath Shuler, a conservative Democrat. Indeed, Shuler opted to retire, and Republican
Mark Meadows won the seat easily. The seat remained occupied by a Republican until
the next redistricting. Conversely, seats that were formerly considered safe for one party may become swing seats. For instance,
Orange County, California, was traditionally a Republican stronghold, and most of its congressional seats were solidly Republican for decades. However, demographic changes, particularly Democratic strength with Hispanic and Asian voters, have eroded Republican dominance of the county ;
Hillary Clinton won it in
2016, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to do so since
Franklin D. Roosevelt in
1936, while Democrats, for the first time in many years, swept all of its congressional seats in the
2018 midterms. Marginal seats only require a small
swing to change hands and therefore are typically the focus of most
campaign resources. The concentration of money and human resources in areas where they will make the most difference is known as
targeting. ==Strategies for securing marginal seats==