The report on the melomys prepared for the Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (DEHP) concluded that the melomys likely became extinct on Bramble Cay between 2009 and 2011, based on anecdotal evidence from visitors to the island. The primary factor in the extinction was assessed as loss of habit due to erosion of the cay, which by 2014 had reached its smallest recorded size. Extreme weather events contributed to the loss of
refugia – including rock caves, crevices and overhangs – that might have allowed a remnant population to survive. Anecdotal evidence was also recorded that Papua New Guineans had illegally visited Bramble Cay to hunt melomys by hitting them with sticks, and that visiting fishermen had allowed their dogs to hunt melomys. The DEHP report concluded that "significantly, this probably represents the first recorded mammalian extinction due to anthropogenic climate change." The report said the "root cause" of the extinction was
sea level rise as a consequence of
global warming. The
United Nations's fifth Global Biodiversity Outlook report, published on 15 September 2020, criticised the Australian Government for the extinction. The reduction in vegetation was most likely caused by increasing ocean flooding as a result of increased frequency and intensity of weather events resulting in very high water levels and storm surges, which was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. In a 2016 paper, Woinarski and others had stated that the Bramble Cay melomys was one of three vertebrates endemic to Australia that went extinct between 2009 and 2014, and that each of the three extinctions had been preventable. According to the
Sydney Morning Herald, a 2008 "recovery plan" had understated the risks to its survival. The recovery plan had stated that "[The] likely
consequences of climate change, including sea-level rise and increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, are unlikely to have any major impact on the survival of the Bramble Cay melomys in the life of this plan."
Possible survival The authors of the 2016 DEHP report cautioned that their conclusion of extinction was based solely on observations of Bramble Cay and that it was possible the Bramble Cay melomys had survived elsewhere in the Torres Strait or on the New Guinea mainland. The 1924 description of the species by Thomas suggested a specimen from
Sassie Island resembled the Bramble Cay melomys, but this has been discounted due to the relative distance from Bramble Cay. Survival on the New Guinea mainland was considered more plausible, with some anecdotal evidence of melomys observed
rafting on oceanic debris, but no direct evidence had been observed of a population outside of Bramble Cay. The report concluded that "a possibility exists that the Bramble Cay melomys occurs in the Fly River delta area of southern New Guinea and so, until this area is adequately surveyed, it may be premature to formally declare the species extinct". ==In popular culture==