Historically, at least since 1982, Saudi Arabia has maintained reserves data and related technical information as a well-guarded secret. This has made independent verification of the Kingdom's reserves and resources virtually impossible, leaving various commentators and the world at-large to rely upon speculation and indirect indicators. However, a recent (2019) independent evaluation—to facilitate Saudi Arabia's effort at an
initial public offering (IPO) of stock in the national
Saudi Aramco oil company—may have changed that somewhat. The independent outside auditor reported that it had determined Saudi Arabia's proved oil reserves were at least 270 billion barrels, fairly consistent with Saudi claims. In a 2004 study,
Matthew Simmons analyzed 200 technical papers on Saudi reserves by the
Society of Petroleum Engineers and concluded that Saudi Arabia's oil production faced near term decline, and that it would not be able to consistently produce more than 2004 levels, when production of crude oil and lease condensate averaged 9.10 million barrels per day. Simmons also argued that the Saudis may have irretrievably damaged their large oil fields by over-pumping salt water into the fields in an effort to maintain the fields' pressure and boost short-term oil extraction. He concluded (in 2004): "In 2-3 years we will have conclusive evidence that Saudi oil is peaking," Since his prediction, Saudi crude oil production has varied from as low as 8.25 million barrels per day (average for 2009) up to 9.83 million barrels per day (average for 2012). Overall, in the nine years since his 2004 prediction (2005-2013), Saudi crude oil and lease condensate production has averaged 9.20 million barrels per day, just slightly higher than 2004 levels.
Diplomatic cables leaked during the
United States diplomatic cables leak in 2011 revealed that
Dr. Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini, former executive vice president of Saudi Arabia's oil monopoly
Saudi Aramco, had warned that reports at a regional oil conference that Saudi Aramco's reserves stood at 716 billion barrels was in error because it combined unproven potential resources with proven reserves. This misunderstanding was inflating the Saudi Aramco proven reserves estimate by approximately 40% (300 billion barrels). These skeptical viewpoints have been countered by events culminating in early 2019. In a press conference in
Riyadh Saudi Arabia on January 9, 2019, Saudi Arabia Energy Minister,
Khalid Al-Falih, officially announced that
DeGolyer and MacNaughton had completed the first ever independent evaluation of proved reserves for the Kingdom. The results of this effort indicate that the proved reserves in the Kingdom are likely proximal to, and even somewhat larger than, previous official estimates. H.E. Khalid Al-Falih outlined the extensive effort in his remarks, stating that the process began in August 2016 and continued for almost years. DeGolyer and MacNaughton personnel (more than 60 geophysicists, petrophysicists, geologists, simulation engineers, reserves engineering specialists, and economists) built the detailed independent evaluation using the extensive raw database from each of the wells and reservoirs in the evaluated reservoirs, applying their own techniques and methodologies to reach the resulting independent estimate of proved reserves. Reaction in the press to the independent evaluation was notable. For example, Ellen Wald, global energy policy analyst, told CNBC that “Whether they have 260 or 266 billion barrels isn't really the issue,” she said. “The point is that they had DeGolyer and MacNaughton, which is a very respected source, do an audit…I think it's designed to put to rest the controversy that's always plagued them since the publication of
Twilight in the Desert.” ==Comparison to Venezuela==