Per Martin-Löf has done important research in
mathematical statistics, which (in the Swedish tradition) includes
probability theory and
statistics.
Bird-watching and sex determination (Calidris alpina) Per Martin-Löf began
bird watching in his youth and remains an enthusiastic bird-watcher. As a teenager, he published an article on estimating the
mortality rates of birds, using data from
bird ringing, in a Swedish zoological journal: This paper was soon cited in leading international journals, and this paper continues to be cited. In the
biology and
statistics of
birds, there are several problems of
missing data. Martin-Löf's first paper discussed the problem of estimating the mortality rates of the
Dunlin species, using
capture-recapture methods. The problem of determining the
sex of a bird, which, for some species, is extremely difficult for humans, is one of the first examples in Martin-Löf's lectures on
statistical models.
Probability on algebraic structures Martin-Löf wrote a licenciate thesis on probability on algebraic structures, particularly semigroups, while a student of
Ulf Grenander at Stockholm University.
Statistical models Martin-Löf developed innovative approaches to
statistical theory. In his paper "On Tables of Random Numbers",
Kolmogorov observed that the
frequency probability notion of the
limiting properties of infinite sequences failed to provide a foundation for statistics, which considers only finite samples. Much of Martin-Löf's work in statistics was to provide a finite-sample foundation for statistics.
Model selection and hypothesis testing on the
Old Faithful dataset In the 1970s, Per Martin-Löf made important contributions to statistical theory and inspired further research, especially by Scandinavian statisticians including Rolf Sundberg, Thomas Höglund, and Steffan Lauritzen. In this work, Martin-Löf's previous research on probability measures on semigroups led to a notion of "repetitive structure" and a novel treatment of sufficient statistics, in which one-parameter
exponential families were characterized. He provided a
category-theoretic approach to
nested statistical models, using finite-sample principles. Before (and after) Martin-Löf, such nested models have often been tested using chi-square hypothesis tests, whose justifications are only asymptotic (and so irrelevant to real problems, which always have finite samples). Many of these results reached the international scientific community through the 1976 paper on the
expectation–maximization (EM) method by
Arthur P. Dempster,
Nan Laird, and
Donald Rubin, which was published in a leading international journal, sponsored by the
Royal Statistical Society. ==Logic==