Diaconis received a
MacArthur Fellowship in 1982. In 1990, he published (with
Dave Bayer) a paper entitled "Trailing the Dovetail Shuffle to Its Lair" (a term coined by magician
Charles Jordan in the early 1900s) which established rigorous results on how many times a deck of playing cards must be
riffle shuffled before it can be considered random according to the mathematical measure
total variation distance. Diaconis is often cited for the simplified proposition that it takes seven shuffles to randomize a deck. More precisely, Diaconis showed that, in the
Gilbert–Shannon–Reeds model of how likely it is that a riffle results in a particular
riffle shuffle permutation, it takes 5 riffles before the total variation distance of a 52-card deck begins to drop significantly from the maximum value of 1.0, and 7 riffles before it drops below 0.5 very quickly (a threshold phenomenon), after which it is reduced by a factor of 2 every shuffle. When
entropy is viewed as the probabilistic distance, riffle
shuffling seems to take less time to mix, and the threshold phenomenon goes away (because the entropy function is subadditive). Diaconis has coauthored several more recent papers expanding on his 1992 results and relating the problem of shuffling cards to other problems in mathematics. Among other things, they showed that the separation distance of an ordered
blackjack deck (that is, aces on top, followed by 2's, followed by 3's, etc.) drops below .5 after 7 shuffles. Separation distance is an upper bound for variation distance. Diaconis has been hired by casino executives to search for subtle flaws in their automatic card shuffling machines. Diaconis soon found some and the horrified executives responded, "We are not pleased with your conclusions but we believe them and that's what we hired you for." He served on the Mathematical Sciences jury of the
Infosys Prize in 2011 and 2012. ==Recognition==