Several theories exist concerning Ağca's assassination attempt. One, which was initially propagated in the American media and strongly advocated since the early 1980s by
Michael Ledeen and
Claire Sterling among others, was that the assassination attempt had originated from
Moscow and that the
KGB had instructed the
Bulgarian and
East German secret services to carry out the mission. The Bulgarian Secret Service was allegedly instructed by the KGB to assassinate the Pope because of his support of Poland's
Solidarity movement, seeing it as one of the most significant threats to
Soviet hegemony in
Eastern Europe.
Noam Chomsky and
Edward S. Herman instead term this as the spread of "disinformation as news" in their book
Manufacturing Consent (1988), as they say there was no evidence to support this claim, while Wolfgang Achtner of
The Independent dubbed it "one of the most successful cases—certainly the most publicized—of disinformation." Ağca himself has given multiple conflicting statements on the assassination at different times. Attorney Antonio Marini stated: "Ağca has manipulated all of us, telling hundreds of lies, continually changing versions, forcing us to open tens of different investigations." Originally, Ağca claimed to be a member of the
Marxist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), but they denied any ties to him.
"Bulgarian Connection" Following the assassination attempt, Ağca made claims while in custody that prior to the attempt, he had made several trips to Sofia, Bulgaria, where he claimed to have had contacts with a Bulgarian agent in Rome whose cover was the Bulgarian national airline office. Soon after the shooting,
Sergei Antonov, a Bulgarian working in Rome for
Balkan Air, was arrested based on Ağca's testimony and accused of being the Bulgarian agent who masterminded the plot. In 1986, after a three-year trial, he was found not guilty. According to the
CIA's chief of staff in Turkey,
Paul Henze, Ağca later stated that in
Sofia, he was once approached by the Bulgarian Secret Service and Turkish mafiosi, who offered him three million
German marks to assassinate the Pope. Some writers, including
Edward S. Herman, co-author with Frank Brodhead of
The Rise and Fall of the Bulgarian Connection (1986), and
Michael Parenti, believed Ağca's story was dubious as Ağca made no claims of Bulgarian involvement until he had been isolated in solitary confinement and visited by Italian Military Intelligence (
SISMI) agents. On 25 September 1991, former CIA analyst Melvin A. Goodman (now Senior Fellow at the
Center for International Policy) claimed that his colleagues, following orders, had falsified their analysis to support the accusation. He declared to the
US Senate intelligence committee that "the CIA hadn't any proof" concerning this alleged "Bulgarian connection".
Grey Wolves Le Monde diplomatique alleged that
Abdullah Çatlı, a leader of the
Grey Wolves, had organised the assassination attempt "in exchange for the sum of 3 million
German Marks" for the Grey Wolves. In Rome, Çatlı declared to the judge in 1985 "that he had been contacted by the
BND, the German intelligence agency, which would have promised him a nice sum of money if he implicated the Russian and Bulgarian services in the assassination attempt against the Pope". According to Colonel
Alparslan Türkeş, the founder of the Grey Wolves, "Çatlı has cooperated in the frame of a secret service working for the good of the state".
Mitrokhin Commission's claims According to Italian newspaper
Corriere della Sera, documents recovered from former
East German intelligence services confirm the 1981 assassination attempt against Pope John Paul II was ordered by the Soviet KGB and assigned to Bulgarian and East German agents with the Stasi to coordinate the operation and cover up the traces afterwards.
Markus Wolf, former
Stasi spy-master, denied any links, and stated that the files had already been sent in 1995. In March 2006, pending the
2006 Italian general election held in April, the controversial Mitrokhin Commission, set up by
Silvio Berlusconi and headed by
Forza Italia senator
Paolo Guzzanti, supported once again the Bulgarian theory, which John Paul II had denounced during his travel to Bulgaria. Guzzanti stated that "leaders of the former Soviet Union were behind the assassination attempt", alleging that "the leadership of the Soviet Union took the initiative to eliminate Pope John Paul" because of his support for
Solidarity, relaying "this decision to the military secret services" and not the KGB. The report's claims were based on recent computer analysis of photographs that purported to demonstrate Antonov's presence in St Peter's Square during the shooting and on information brought by the French anti-terrorist judge
Jean-Louis Bruguière, a controversial figure whose last feat was to indict Rwandese president
Paul Kagame, on the grounds that he had deliberately provoked the 1994
Rwandan genocide against his own ethnic group in order to take power. According to
Le Figaro, Bruguière, who was in close contacts with both Moscow and Washington, D.C., including intelligence agents, was accused by many of his colleagues of "privileging the
reason of state over law". Both Russia and Bulgaria condemned the report. Foreign ministry spokesman
Dimiter Tzantchev said: "For Bulgaria, this case closed with the court decision in Rome in March 1986.", He recalled the Pope's dismissive comments during his May 2002 visit to Bulgaria. Guzzanti said that the commission had decided to re-open the report's chapter on the assassination attempt in 2005, after the Pope wrote about it in his last book,
Memory and Identity. The Pope wrote that he was convinced the shooting was not Ağca's initiative and that "someone else masterminded it and someone else commissioned it". The Mitrokhin Commission also alleged
Romano Prodi, a former
Prime Minister of Italy, was the "KGB's man in Italy". At the end of December 2006,
Mario Scaramella, one of Guzzanti's main informers, was arrested and charged, among other things, with defamation. Cited by
La Repubblica, Rome's prosecutor Pietro Salvitti, who was in charge of the investigations concerning Scaramella, showed that
Nicolò Pollari, head of
SISMI, the Italian military intelligence agency and indicted in the
Abu Omar case, as well as SISMI no 2,
Marco Mancini, who arrested in July 2006 for the same reason, were some of the informers, alongside Scaramella, of Guzzanti. According to Salvitti, beside targeting Prodi and his staff, this network also aimed at defaming General Giuseppe Cucchi (the then director of the
CESIS), Milan's judges Armando Spataro, in charge of the Abu Omar case, and Guido Salvini, as well as
La Repubblica reporters Carlo Bonini and Giuseppe D'Avanzo, who discovered the
Yellowcake forgery affair. The investigation also showed a connection between Scaramella and the CIA, in particular through Filippo Marino, one of Scaramella's closest partners since the 1990s and co-founder of the
Environmental Crime Prevention Program, who came to live in the United States. In an interview, Marino acknowledged an association with former and active CIA officers, including
Robert Lady, former CIA station chief in Milan, indicted by prosecutor Armando Spataro for having coordinated the abduction of
Hassan Mustafa Osama Nasr that led to the Abu Omar case.
Spies in the Vatican In 2009, journalist and former U.S. Army
military intelligence officer
John O. Koehler published ''Spies in the Vatican: The Soviet Union's Cold War Against the Catholic Church''. Mining mostly East German and Polish secret police archives, Koehler claims the attempt was "KGB-backed" and gives details. ==Fatima and possible Vatican connection==