,
NV,
MO,
TX, and
GU.
(Compare to delegate map.) , less than 50 percent). This section reports popular vote data for the two leading candidates,
Barack Obama and
Hillary Clinton. Officially, the popular vote does not matter in the Democratic presidential nomination. However, political experts sometimes look to the popular vote as an indicator of candidate support and momentum. News media frequently report the popular vote on election night, declaring states "won" on this basis. Superdelegates may also consider the popular vote when making their decision about whom to support. Nevertheless, the popular vote count presents many problems and should be interpreted carefully. After winning West Virginia, the Clinton campaign claimed a lead in the popular vote. However, the math behind this claim relied upon a number of points that were disputed by neutral political observers and by the Obama campaign. For example, Hawaii and Rhode Island have similar populations, but the opinion of Rhode Islanders is weighted more heavily in the popular vote total. Clinton won the Rhode Island primary 58-40% and received 33,600 more votes than Obama. In contrast, Obama won the Hawaii caucuses 76-24%, but received only 19,500 more votes than Clinton. If these states were to hold primaries and Obama were to win by a similar margin, his popular vote total would be considerably higher.
Florida and Michigan Florida and Michigan were
penalized by the Democratic party, and under the rules as they existed at the time of the elections, the delegates were not to be seated at the Democratic Convention. Toward the end of the primary season, on May 31, the Democratic National Committee restored "half votes" to the disputed primaries, as well as accepting a reapportionment of Michigan delegates proposed by the state party. In Florida, where both candidates pledged not to campaign, Clinton beat Obama 50-33% in the disputed primary. In Michigan, where Obama and other candidates removed their name from the ballot, Clinton won against "Uncommitted" 55-40%.
Exit poll respondents said that if all candidates had been on the ballot, they would have voted 46% Clinton, 35% Obama, 12% Edwards, 3% other. These results do not record the preferences of voters who chose to stay home, believing that their votes would not count. The Clinton campaign argued that popular vote totals should include Florida and Michigan and that Obama should receive 0 votes in Michigan. Obama argued that the nullified primaries do not represent a true test of popular support, noting that primaries where the candidates are not allowed to campaign amount to little more than a "referendum on name recognition".
Nomination rules Finally, the nomination was decided by delegates under the Democratic Party's rules, so the candidates campaigned to maximize their delegate advantage. If the nomination were decided by popular vote, they likely would have campaigned differently, in order to run up the vote in populous states like New York and Illinois. House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi has said that the popular vote should have no effect under the current rules: "It’s a delegate race. The way the system works is that the delegates choose the nominee." Obama's chief strategist suggested that the Clinton campaign's focus on the popular vote was a distraction tactic: "When they started off, it was all about delegates.... Now that we have more delegates, it’s all about the popular vote. And if that does not work out, they will probably challenge us to a game of
cribbage to choose the nominee."
Popular vote table The table below presents various combinations of the "popular vote," accounting for some, but not all, of the problems noted above. The source for the popular vote totals in each state is RealClearPolitics, which aggregates data from official state results and news sources. Not all combinations are reported, only those most commonly cited as popular vote estimates. For example, the table does not reflect exit poll findings on how many voters would have voted for Obama had Obama's name been on the Michigan ballot, since there are many ways to generate this estimate. == Graphical representations ==