of the
Las Vegas Raiders, playing against the
Washington Commanders at
Allegiant Stadium on December 5, 2021. Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022. In previous decades, the running back position was considered to be one of the more important skill positions in the NFL. In fact, as recently as the 1990s, the running back position was considered by some to be as important, if not more important, than the
quarterback position. For example, in the history of the NFL draft, 23 running backs have been selected with the first overall pick, the most recent of these being
Ki-Jana Carter in
1995. However, in the modern NFL, teams currently value running backs significantly less than they did in previous decades.
Usage of analytics There are several possible explanations for the aforementioned shift in how teams have valued running backs. A common explanation for the shift is that teams have incorporated analytics into team-building. The analytics community has often considered the running back position to be the least important and most replaceable of any position in football. These analysts have defended this argument by noting that running back production is heavily dependent on offensive line play and offensive scheming rather than the ball carrier himself. Additionally, these analysts have noted that running back talent is replicable by citing that backups and mid-to-late round backs have often matched and sometimes exceeded the production of starting running backs or first-round backs. For example, in every season from 2019 to 2022, Dallas Cowboys backup running back
Tony Pollard, a 2019 fourth-round selection, averaged more yards per carry than Dallas's starting running back, Ezekiel Elliott, who was selected in the first round of the
2016 NFL draft. Furthermore, in 2022, star running back and 2017 first-round selection
Christian McCaffrey, who began the season as the feature back for the
Carolina Panthers, averaged 4.7 yards per carry in the team's first six games of the season. After Carolina traded McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers before Week 7, running backs
D'Onta Foreman and
Chuba Hubbard, who were selected in the third round in 2017 and the fourth round in 2021, respectively, took over backfield duties for the Panthers. Foreman averaged 4.6 yards per carry as a Panther in 2022, which was similar to what McCaffrey averaged as a Panther that season. Meanwhile, Hubbard averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a Panther in 2022, which exceeded McCaffrey's average yards per carry as a Panther that season. In other cases, the starting quarterback is a central component of the rushing attack. The
Baltimore Ravens and
Philadelphia Eagles had operated like this between the mid-2010s and early 2020s, though both teams made major free agent signings at running back in 2024 with
Derrick Henry and
Saquon Barkley respectively. Analytics departments have also argued that offenses are more successful if they pass the ball more often. Passing plays have consistently averaged more yards than running plays in recent NFL history. Such analysts have argued that this is the case because during running plays, the defensive linemen, linebacking corps, and secondary all have a chance to tackle the ball carrier, but on passing plays, it is possible to effectively eliminate the defensive linemen, linebacking corps, and even the secondary from stopping the play. Furthermore, on passing plays, it is easier to gain additional yards when the ball is delivered to a receiver in open space, but it is not as easy for a running back to make defenders miss. This is especially the case when a running play is designed for the back to run between the tackles, and thus, through the teeth of the defense. Some analysts believe that running the ball is simply a complement to the passing game and will rarely win a team games. These analytical arguments may have also played a role in the NFL's transition from a run-heavy to pass-happy offensive attack. Because analytics have hinted at what it takes for rushing attacks to thrive, the widespread availability of productive and inexpensive running backs, and the efficiency of the passing offense, they may have served as the impetus for teams' transition to a passing offense and declining need for and valuation of traditional feature running backs.
The rise of running back committees Another possible cause for the devaluation of running backs are the rise of running back committees. This is the practice of constructing a roster that has more than one featured running back. As of the
2023 NFL season, there are a number of running back committee setups present around the league, with the most common being the "70-30 rotation", a setup which has a featured running back taking the majority of the snaps while one or more
change of pace backs make up the rest. Other setups include the "tandem backfields", which are setups that have two featured running backs splitting carriers, often with two different running styles, i.e. a power running back partnered with an elusive back or pass-catching back. One of the most famous of these setups was the tandem duo of
Ricky Williams and
Ronnie Brown as part of the
2008 Miami Dolphins. The last of these setups are "full-blown" committees, which often feature 3 or more running backs that are often cycled through throughout a game, with coaches often sticking to whomever is "hot" as the main running back. The running back by committee style has been popularized across the league because of how injury prone the position is and the effects of fatigue on players. Because of how successful this style of offense has been, the traditional "workhorse" back has become significantly less common. Despite the rise of committees, "workhorse" running backs are still present, with a recent and prominent example being
Derrick Henry of the
Tennessee Titans, who, during the
2022 season, took nearly 90% of all of the Titans' carries that season.
Long-term running back contracts Another possible explanation for the declining value
NFL teams place on running backs is the risk of signing one to a lucrative, long-term deal. There are several examples of such contracts given to running backs that have backfired on teams. Most notably, before the
2018 NFL season,
Los Angeles Rams star feature back
Todd Gurley signed a 4-year extension for $60 million with $45 million in guaranteed money. The deal made him the highest-paid running back in the NFL at the time. Although Gurley turned in another strong season in 2018 in which he led the league in rushing touchdowns and made a third Pro Bowl, an arthritis diagnosis hampered him during the 2018 Rams’ playoff run and in the
2019 NFL season. This led to the Rams releasing him after the conclusion of the 2019 season, meaning that Gurley did not play a down as a Ram for the time period that the team extended him for. Despite owing Gurley, who ended his playing career after the
2020 NFL season, a dead cap hit of $8.4 million for the
2021 NFL season, the Rams won that season's
Super Bowl LVI with an offense that ranked 24th in rushing but 5th in passing. The
2021 Rams opted to utilize a running back by committee approach and instead put greater focus on the passing attack. On the other hand, several successful teams have survived without distributing significant financial capital towards running backs. In addition to the 2021 Los Angeles Rams, who won Super Bowl LVI in spite of the Gurley contract, the
2022 Kansas City Chiefs won
Super Bowl LVII with an offense that finished 20th in rushing but 1st in passing. Seventh-round rookie running back
Isiah Pacheco (who overtook the starting job from 2020 first-round selection
Clyde Edwards-Helaire due to the latter's injuries and suboptimal production) was Kansas City's primary back during the team's Super Bowl run. Out of the last 14 Super Bowl winners, only five of those teams paid their top rusher a base salary over $1 million, and only one of those five paid its top rusher a base salary of over $2 million, thus proving that a highly paid running back is not essential for winning. Other examples of lucrative, long-term contracts given to running backs that backfired on teams include those given to
Le'Veon Bell (4-year contract for $52.5 million, cut during year 2 of contract),
Ezekiel Elliott (6-year extension for $90 million, cut after year 2 of extension), and
David Johnson (3-year extension for $39 million, traded after year 1 of extension).
Draft value Although drafting running backs in the first round of the
NFL draft was commonplace throughout the 20th century, doing such is less commonplace and frequently criticized in the current era of NFL football. As previously mentioned, 23 running backs have been selected with the first overall pick in the history of the NFL Draft, but no running back has been selected first overall since 1995. However, football analytics departments view running back talent as replicable and thus believe that productive running backs can be drafted in the later rounds of the draft or signed to low-risk deals in free agency. For that reason, in recent years, teams with desires for a stronger rushing attack have passed on running backs during the first round and instead used those top draft picks on other needs or other positions that (according to analytics) are actually more responsible for rushing success, such as offensive linemen. As teams have become more analytically inclined, they have not used their first round draft picks on running backs nearly as much as they used to. For example, from 1981 to 1985, more than half of all lead running backs were selected in the first round of the draft, but from 2016 to the present, that figure dipped to just over a quarter of all lead running backs. In fact, during the
2022 NFL draft, not a single running back was selected in the first round. The following year, when the
Atlanta Falcons used the eighth overall pick to select running back
Bijan Robinson, several analysts heavily criticized the Falcons and argued that they could have used the pick to fulfill another need and selected a productive running back in the later rounds. The
Detroit Lions faced similar backlash for taking running back
Jahmyr Gibbs with the twelfth overall pick in the
2023 NFL draft. Gibbs was considered a questionable pick because analysts felt that the pick could have been put to better use even with the known talent that Gibbs offered. Despite the widespread criticism of drafting running backs in the first round, some observers have defended the practice if done in the right circumstances. For example, some writers defended the selection of Robinson in the first round due to his versatility and contributions to the passing attack while he was in college.
Consequences of evolving team-building approaches on running backs Because teams have changed how they view the running back position, running back contracts have declined in value. For example, as of 2023, the average running back makes $1.808 million per season, which is less than what the average kicker makes ($2.196 million per season). Also, the franchise tag for running backs has decreased from $10.95 million in 2015 to $10.09 million in 2023. In fact, the running back position is the only position to see a decline in franchise tag value since 2015. Furthermore, in 2023, the franchise tag for running backs was the least valuable of franchise tags for any offensive or defensive position. In recent years, NFL teams have shown that they are willing to move on from productive running backs once they are due for a big payday and instead replicate their production by taking advantage of cheaper alternatives such as their own backups, mid to late round draft picks, and low-risk free agent running backs. For example, during the 2023 NFL offseason, feature running backs
Dalvin Cook,
Ezekiel Elliott,
Leonard Fournette, and
Kareem Hunt, despite enjoying productive careers up to that point, were either released by the respective teams that they previously played for or allowed to leave during free agency. As of July 18, 2023 (the beginning of training camp for several NFL teams), the four aforementioned unemployed running backs have remained as such. Other productive running backs such as
Las Vegas Raiders starting running back
Josh Jacobs,
New York Giants starting running back
Saquon Barkley, and
Dallas Cowboys backup running back
Tony Pollard were franchise tagged by their respective teams during the 2023 offseason. The three aforementioned backs failed to agree to a long-term deal by the July 17 deadline. As of July 18, 2023, only Pollard has signed his franchise tender, while Barkley and Jacobs have yet to sign their tenders (Barkley would later agree to a separate one-year deal worth up to $11 million with the Giants on July 25, and Jacobs would later agree to a separate one-year deal worth up to $12 million with the Raiders on August 26). In other cases, productive running backs have accepted pay cuts due to a lack of leverage and/or the desire to contribute to teams. For example,
Cincinnati Bengals feature back
Joe Mixon took a pay cut before the 2023 season despite boasting a productive career resume to that point. Due to the decline in value of running back contracts and the prolonged periods in which previously productive running backs (e.g. Elliott, Cook, Hunt, and Fournette) have remained unemployed, several running backs, such as
Tennessee Titans running back
Derrick Henry, have spoken out about the state of the running back market in 2023 and complained that running backs have not been provided with fair compensation for the services they provide. ==See also==