Canada The observed effect of
Duverger's law in Canada is weaker than in other countries. In the
1999 Ontario provincial election, strategic voting was encouraged by opponents of the
Progressive Conservative government of
Mike Harris. This failed to unseat Harris but succeeded in suppressing the
Ontario New Democratic Party vote to a historic low. In the
2004 federal election, and to a lesser extent in the
2006 election, strategic voting was a concern for the federal
New Democratic Party (NDP). In the 2004 election, the governing Liberal Party was able to convince many New Democratic voters to vote Liberal to avoid a Conservative government. In the 2006 elections, the Liberal Party attempted the same strategy, with Prime Minister
Paul Martin asking New Democrats and Greens to vote for the Liberal Party to prevent a Conservative win. The New Democratic Party leader
Jack Layton responded by asking voters to "lend" their votes to his party, suggesting that the Liberal Party was bound to lose the election regardless of strategic voting. This failed to prevent the Conservatives from winning the election, although they did not win a majority of seats. During the
2015 federal election, strategic voting was used extensively against the
Conservative government of
Stephen Harper, which had benefited from
vote splitting among centrist and left-leaning parties in the
2011 election. Following the landslide victory of the
Liberals led by
Justin Trudeau over Harper's Conservatives, experts argued that this dramatic increase in support for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP and
Green Party was partially due to strategic voting for Liberal candidates. In three weeks, 1.4 million voters switched from NDP to Liberal. In at least two closely contested ridings, strategic voting websites obtained enough pledges to account for the victory margin of the Liberal candidate.
France The
two-round system in France shows strategic voting in the first round, due to considerations which candidate will reach the second round. invoking "" (strategic voting) as a reason for voters to vote for
François Fillon instead of
Emmanuel Macron Germany The
mixed-member proportional representation allows to estimate the share of strategic voters in
first-past-the-post voting due to the separate votes for party-lists and local single-winner electoral district candidates. The vote for party-lists is considered sincere if the party vote share is significantly above the 5% electoral threshold in Germany. In Germany the share of strategic voters was found around 30%, which decreased to 9% if only non-allied party candidates were contenders for the electoral district winner. In a contentious election year the share of strategic voters increased to around 45%. Due to electoral threshold in
party-list proportional representation one party asked in several elections their voters to vote for another allied party to help this party cross the electoral threshold.
Hong Kong In
Hong Kong, with its
party-list proportional representation using
largest remainder method with the
Hare quota, voters supporting candidates of the
pro-democracy camp often organize to divide their votes across different tickets, avoiding the concentration of votes on one or a few candidates. In
2016 Hong Kong Legislative Election, the practices of strategic voting were expanded by
Benny Tai's Project ThunderGo. The anti-establishment camp gained 29 seats, a historical record.
Hungary In
Hungary, during the
2018 Hungarian parliamentary election, several websites, such as taktikaiszavazas.hu (meaning "strategic voting"), promoted the idea to vote for opposition candidates with the highest probability of winning a given seat. About a quarter of opposition voters adopted this behavior, resulting in a total of 498,000 extra votes gained by opposition parties. A total of 14 extra single seats were taken by several parties and independent candidates.
Lithuania In
Lithuania, which has a
parallel voting system at parliamentary and district levels, most of strategic voting takes place in single-member constituencies (or districts in mayoral elections). These constituencies have two-round system when no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the votes in the first round. A notable example of strategic voting at the parliamentary level could be the 10th
Naujoji Vilnia constituency in
2016 Lithuanian parliamentary election. To prevent independent candidate
Algirdas Paleckis' victory, the
Liberal Movement's, the
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union's and the
Social Democratic Party's candidates endorsed their supporters to vote for the
Homeland Union's candidate
Monika Navickienė (who came in second place). Monika Navickienė eventually won the constituency by around 900 votes. At a district level, an example could be Kėdainiai district's mayoral election in the 2015 municipal elections. In the first round, the
Labour Party won 13 seats of 26 seats in district council and was just one seat short of absolute majority. Nijolė Naujokienė (candidate to the district's mayoral seat from the Labour Party) came short by 0.68 per cent in the mayoral election. Her opponent, Saulius Grinkevičius, had a 22 per cent gap to overcome. In the second round, Saulius Grinkevičius won by around 8 per cent (and 1,600 votes).
New Zealand Since New Zealand moved to
mixed-member proportional representation voting in 1996, the
electoral system of New Zealand has seen strategic voting regularly occur in several elections, including one party explicitly or implicitly encouraging voters to vote for a candidate other than theirs. This happened first in 1996 in the
Wellington Central, and then in 1999 in the
Coromandel. From 1996 until 2005, it was a regular feature in the
Ohariu-Belmont electorate, which was won by
Peter Dunne throughout its existence and from 2005 in the
Epsom electorate which has been won solely by the
ACT party since 2005.
Poland In the
2023 Polish parliamentary election, websites like pogonimypis.pl (meaning "We'll chase away the PiS") gave information for which parties voters should vote for in their constituency in order to maximize the chance of the opposition winning the extra seat. The campaign was a success, with
PiS losing the majority in the
Sejm. At the same time, a
referendum with the questions asked in a persuasive way took place, with the opposition recommending to not take the referendal card. The voter turnout of the referendum is 40%, making it non-binding and merely a suggestion for all the future governments.
Slovenia According to some media, in the
2011 Slovenian parliamentary election, 30% of voters voted tactically. Public polls predicted an easy win for
Janez Janša, the candidate of the
Slovenian Democratic Party; however, his opponent
Zoran Janković, the candidate of
Positive Slovenia, won. Prominent Slovenian public opinion researchers claimed that such proportions of strategic voting had not been recorded anywhere else before.
Spain In the 2016 General Election in Spain, the incentives for voting tactically were much larger than usual, following the rise of the Podemos and Ciudadanos and following the economic crisis and election in 2015. The strategic voters successfully influenced the outcome of the election, despite a record low turnout of 66.5%. In a natural experiment in Andalusia 9% voted strategically when having opportunity, strategic behavior did not increase with time, and did not affect surrounding electoral areas, under the assumption that strategic voting happens only for
district magnitude above 5.
Taiwan In the
1995 Legislative Yuan election, strategic voting was implemented by the opposition parties, such as the
Democratic Progressive Party and the
New Party. As the members were elected in multi-member districts, the parties urged their supporters to vote for a party-nominated candidate according to criteria, such as the last digit of the voter's
National Identification Card Number or the voter's birth month. This maximized the opposition's seat gains and resulted in the ruling
Kuomintang losing 10 seats, receiving the lowest share of seats in history at the time.
United Kingdom In the
1997 UK general election,
Democratic Left helped
Bruce Kent set up GROT (Get Rid Of Them) a strategic voter campaign whose aim was to help prevent the Conservative Party from gaining a 5th term in office. This coalition was drawn from individuals in all the main opposition parties, and many who were not aligned with any party. While it is hard to prove that GROT swung the election itself, it did attract significant media attention and brought strategic voting into the mainstream for the first time in UK politics. In 2001, the Democratic Left's successor organisation, the
New Politics Network, organised a similar campaign. Since then strategic voting has become a consideration in British politics as is reflected in by-elections and by the growth in sites such as tacticalvote.co.uk, who encourage strategic voting as a way of defusing the two party system and empowering the individual voter. For the
2015 UK general election, voteswap.org attempted to prevent the Conservative Party staying in government by encouraging Green Party supporters to tactically vote for the Labour Party in listed marginal seats. In 2017 swapmyvote.uk was formed to help supporters of all parties swap their votes with people in other constituencies. In the 2006 local elections in London, strategic voting was promoted by sites such as London Strategic Voter in a response to national and international issues. In Northern Ireland, it is believed that (predominantly Protestant) Unionist voters in Nationalist strongholds have voted for the
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) to prevent
Sinn Féin from capturing such seats. This conclusion was reached by comparing results to the demographics of constituencies and polling districts. In the
2017 general election, it is estimated that 6.5 million people (more than 20% of voters) voted tactically either as a way of preventing a "hard Brexit" or preventing another Conservative government led by the Tactical2017 campaign. secure closely fought seats against the Conservatives. This ultimately led to the Conservatives losing seats in the election even though they increased their overall vote share. In the
2019 Conservative Party leadership election to determine the final two candidates for the party vote, it was suggested that front-runner Boris Johnson's campaign encouraged some of its MPs to back
Jeremy Hunt instead of Johnson, so that Huntseen as "a lower-energy challenger"would finish in second place, allowing an easier defeat in the party vote. Strategic voting was expected to play a major role in the
2019 General Election, with a
YouGov poll suggesting that 19% of voters would be doing so tactically. 49% of strategic voters said they would do so in the hope of stopping a party whose views they opposed. According to a 2020 study, older voters in the UK vote strategically more than younger voters, and richer voters vote more strategically than poorer voters. In an example of individuals voting tactically,
Labour voters in the
2022 Tiverton and Honiton by-election in the UK tactically supported the
Liberal Democrat candidate in order to ensure the defeat of the
Conservatives. This resulted in the Liberal Democrats winning what had previously been a Conservative
safe seat. In 2024, tactical voting was again advocated for the
2024 general election, as a means to defeat Conservative candidates in seats with traditional large Conservative majorities.
United States Strategic voting in the US's
first-past-the-post voting and
presidential system contributes to a two-party system, where the observed effect of
Duverger's law is stronger than in most countries. One high-profile example of strategic voting was the
2002 California gubernatorial election. During the Republican primaries, Republicans
Richard Riordan (former mayor of
Los Angeles) and
Bill Simon (a self-financed businessman) vied for a chance to compete against the unpopular incumbent Democratic
Governor of California,
Gray Davis. Polls predicted that Riordan would defeat Davis, while Simon would not. At that time, the Republican primaries were partially closed primaries in which non-partisans and registered Republicans could vote regardless of their party affiliation. Davis supporters (those were eligible to vote in the Republican primary) were rumored to have voted for Simon because Riordan was perceived as a greater threat to Davis; this, combined with a negative advertising campaign by Davis describing Riordan as a "big-city liberal", allowed Simon to win the primary despite a last-minute business
scandal. The strategy to nominate Simon (if in fact it was a reality), was successful, as he lost in the general election against Davis. However, it resulted in the lowest gubernatorial general election turnout in modern California political history, thus requiring fewer signatures to qualify a
recall that ultimately ousted Davis. Similarly, in 2012,
Claire McCaskill boosted
Todd Akin in the
2012 US Senate election in Missouri. In addition to running ads highlighting Akin's conservative stances, McCaskill also directed messages to surrogates to tell Akin to run ads which would increase his primary polling.
Puerto Rico Puerto Rico's 2004 elections were affected by strategic voting. Pedro Rosselló, the
New Progressive Party's candidate of that year, was unpopular across much of the territory due to large corruption schemes and the privatization of public corporations. To prevent Rossell from winning, other factions supported the
Partido Popular Democratico's candidate. The elections were close; statehood advocates won a seat in the U.S. house of representatives and majorities in both legislative branches, but lost governance to
Aníbal Acevedo Vilá. (Puerto Ricans have the chance to vote by party or by candidate. Separatists voted under their ideology but for the center party's candidate, which caused major turmoil.) After a recount and a trial, Acevedo Vilá was certified as governor of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. == Rational voter model ==