After the idea of a war game was proposed, Karber brought in a Harvard professor,
Thomas Schelling, to help design a game testing out the various proposals and possible for a limited nuclear war. Schelling told Weinberger shortly after accepting the position that he believed the senior government leaders were quite unprepared to make important decisions, should one of the strategies really be carried out. Weinberger was willing to be the first senior national security leader to participate in a United States war game, as long as Karber designed a secret way for him and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to do so and as long as he designed the game to test United States war plans and as a learning exercise and experience for the Secretary. Weinberger worried that the "fishbowl effect," fear of public exposure and embarrassment, would disturb or distort the decisions made by players within the simulation. Another major concern that led to the confidentiality of this game involved the need to prevent a media leakage that could potentially disturb Soviet Union leaders or even leaders from allied countries. During the summer of 1983, relations between the United States and Soviet Union were poor, so President Reagan and his administration had to be very careful of media coverage and avoid negative headlines that could be potentially misinterpreted or misconstrued. Schelling's previous wartime games like the crisis games at the
RAND Corporation in the 1950s and at the
US National Security Council in the early 1960s incorporated help from staffers from think tanks, the Pentagon, and the CIA, while this new game was designed so that decision-makers like the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff could play. Karber provided that a "
Thucydidean Chronicler" would independently observe the decision making on both sides of the games; he would do so by wandering around the game and recording his impressions.
Educational objectives The educational objectives are given in Section II, Background Information, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. They included: • Expose players to decisions required during a period of developing but still ambiguous threat • Familiarize players with possible war triggers • Involve players in the decisions required during a global conflict • Explore the risks and benefits of a conventional escalation strategy • Consider the impact of early decisions on the course of extended hostilities • Determine opportunities for war termination
Commands and agencies involved The list of organizations involved is found in Section II, Background Information, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document: •
United States Department of Defense •
United States Department of State •
Central Intelligence Agency •
Defense Intelligence Agency •
Joint Chiefs of Staff •
United States Department of the Army •
United States Department of the Navy •
United States Department of the Air Force •
United States Department of Transportation •
United States Coast Guard •
U.S. Atlantic Command •
U.S. European Command •
U.S. Pacific Command •
U.S. Readiness Command •
U.S. Southern Command •
Strategic Air Command •
Military Airlift Command •
Military Traffic Management Command •
Military Sealift Command •
Defense Nuclear Agency •
National Defense University •
Army War College •
Air War College •
Naval War College •
Army National Guard •
Air National Guard •
Army Reserve •
Naval Reserve •
Marine Corps Reserve •
Air Force Reserve •
Coast Guard Reserve • Army Intelligence and Security Command • 5th Psychological Operations Group •
United States Army Reserve •
Team B Red Team (Soviets) The role of the Red Team was to strategize and take action based on what they thought the Soviets would do during the unfolding scenario. They were essentially the Soviet Team during Proud Prophet.
Red Team laws of war The following laws of war were followed by the Red Team and are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document.
Marxism–Leninism was their foundation. The Soviets believed that war depended on four theoretical laws: • The war and its end result depend on strictly military forces of combatants at the beginning of the war. This is based on the Soviets analyzing both World Wars and the invention of nuclear weapons that are capable of changing the course of the war significantly. • The war and its end result depend mainly on military potentials of combatants. This law places emphasis on the meaning of "military potentials" and does not apply only to military forces. Instead, the Soviets went further in depth with this term by including scientific, industrial, and research base along with workforce, technical and education levels of the population. They are considered military potentials because the ability of administrative agencies to use these resources within the military. • The war and its end result depend on the political context. This law is based on population characteristics and how politics plays a role within the population. In order to be ready for war, the Soviets prepare psychologically, politically, and ideologically. The structure of the war must be done in a manner to maximally use propaganda throughout the war. • The war and its end result depend on the moral-political and psychological capabilities of the population and military of the combatants. This law requires the political figures to present the justification for the war so as to mentally prepare the military and population. This is done by making the enemy seem unjust and educating the population about how the effect of nuclear weapons is not as bad as it seems. Basically, it is a mental preparation for the nation as a whole so that there is "positive energy" going into the war.
Red national goals The national goals are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. These were the goals that the Red Team wanted to achieve. Any action taken during Proud Prophet was to be a step forward towards these goals. • Preserve the power of the ruling
Communist Party. • Defend the homeland and ensure
progress toward communism. • Defend acquired territories (
Warsaw Pact countries) and further assimilate them. • Exploit every opportunity to expand Red control and disrupt capitalist control in order to shift the correlation of forces in favor of Red.
Red Team strategic principles The following are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. The 14 basic strategic principles that the Red Team followed were: • Foment dissension in the enemy camp by supporting one or more internal dissident movements. • Do not support an ally if, in doing so, you will make him too strong. • Use the forces of allies, or even better one's enemy, to defeat the primary opponent. • Do not let your enemy grow too weak too soon if a third party will be the primary beneficiary rather than yourself. • Use propaganda and demands for concessions incessantly on the principle that familiarity with uncongenial subjects eventually breeds readiness to take them for granted. • Use terror on prospective areas to be conquered so the population will greet your conquest with relief. • Be flexible in approach and accept compromises as the basis for the new demands. • Use peace talks and truces as a time for regrouping, employing deception, and taking whatever advantage the opponent will tolerate. • Avoid two-front wars. • Be patient, do not ask for everything at once. Ensure thorough consolidation of previous positions before advancing. • Build such an overwhelming military power that an opponent will realize he must accommodate. • Combine offensive and defensive methods, tools, and weapons in a coordinated manner designed to ensure retention of the initiative. • Use the psychological technique known as "
reflexive control" to lead an opponent into unwittingly doing what you want. • Remember the critical importance of time as a key factor in warfare. Establish time-phased goals based on thorough testing to determine minimum realistic and feasible times required to accomplish missions.
Red Team non-military forms of war The Soviets were thought to believe that they had more strength in their non-military forms of war in comparison to the Western countries. Consequently, the Red Team was to maximize the use of these forms of war. The following three non-military forms of war can be found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. • Economic - Use Western weaknesses in financial structure and energy resources as levers to create unemployment, panic and clashes between peoples and governments. • Cultural - Use cultural concerns as psychological levers to prevent Western use of nuclear weapons. • Political - Manipulate local political interests, as well as groups and individuals. == Game Play ==