Error management theory

In the decision-making process, when faced with uncertainty, a subject can make two possible errors: type I or type II. A type I error is a false positive, thinking that an effect is there, when it is not. For example, acting on a fire alarm that turns out to be false. When someone infers sexual interest, where there is none, then a false-positive error has occurred. A type II error is a false negative, not seeing an effect where one exists. Ignoring the fire alarm that turns out to be accurate, due to scepticism, illustrates this point. Falsely inferring a lack of intent about sexual interest means a false negative error has occurred. ==Sexual overperception bias==

Males One of the aims of error management theory is to explain sexual overperception bias. Sexual overperception occurs when a type I error is committed by an individual. An individual committing this type error falsely concludes that someone else has a sexual interest in them. Manipulation Differences in perceptions of sexual interest between men and women may be exploited by both genders. Men may present themselves as more emotionally invested in a woman than they actually are in order to gain sexual access; 71% of men report engaging in this form of manipulation and 97% of women report having experienced this form of manipulation. something that explains the presence of both biases in males. ==Sexual underperception bias==

Females Women also fall victim to misconceptions during male-female interactions. Haselton and Buss (2000) argued that these errors primarily stem from women's perceived desire for a committed relationship by a male counterpart. One of these evolved strategies is to commit the Skeptical Commitment Bias. Skeptical commitment bias Women's commitment skepticism arises from the high costs of falsely inferring a mate's commitment to a relationship. It hypothesizes that women have adapted to be cognitively biased towards under perceiving male interest and commitment. This is due to the high cost of a false positive – a man not being committed and a woman accepting him – that could lead to raising a child without an investing mate, reputational damage and risk reducing chances of future courtship. The cost of a false negative – a man that is committed and a woman rejecting him – is far less costly to the female. Women are limited to how many children they can have in a lifetime. However, men are not limited and can reproduce multiple times. Therefore, overperception costs are higher for females. This hypothesis is mentioned briefly by Buss (2012). Imagine a woman is assessing her potential mate's commitment intent. The woman's father also has a vested interest in whether she reproduces because he shares genes with her and thus, his reproductive interests extend to his daughter's mate choice. The father also has to evaluate the costs and benefits of the two types of errors she could make when evaluating her mate's commitment intent. If the chosen mate sexually deceives and then leaves her then the outcome is more costly for him than if his daughter is more cautious and underestimates intent. Thus, the father might take time before offering his parental seal of approval. The father shows the same skeptical commitment bias as his daughter, favouring the false negative error because it is less costly. Taking the parental dynamic and switching it from father to mother, the same could be said for sexual overperception bias. A mother has an interest in who her son decides to mate with and therefore will favour the false positive error over false negative. If she fails to detect real interest in the woman, and thus, fails to share this female interest with her son, then it is more costly to her than if she falsely detects sexual interest from a woman towards her son and encourages him to pursue. If her son misses an opportunity, he has missed the chance to pass on his, and in doing so her own, genes. Therefore, the mother shows the same overperception bias as her son, favouring the false positive error because it is less costly. It is not sex or gender that predicts what type of cognitive bias might be expressed but rather the potential costs to reproductive success. Postmenopausal females Contrasting the evidence for fertile females, skeptical commitment bias does not occur in postmenopausal women. Haselton and Buss (2000) found evidence for the perception biases studying young subjects; however, this was not representative of older females, who have passed through menopause. The reason for this disparity between pre- and postmenopausal females is that fertile females underestimate the intentions of males to invest in the relationship, in order to avoid the costs of pregnancy without support; however, postmenopausal women do not perceive such costs. Their inability to conceive means that there is no reason to underestimate a male's intentions. ==Alternative explanations==

Some recent studies researching error management theory have found men and women's perceptions of opposite gender sexual and commitment interest may be mitigated by other explanations. and in females based on their job status, health, levels of education and income equality. This implies that instead of males and females falling victims of overperception and underperception respectively, both sexes project their own level of interest onto the individuals they are interacting with. Reciprocity Another explanation that removes overperception and underperception from the picture is how males and females reciprocate the perceived interest in one another. Evidence from speed dating shows that a partner's level of attraction for an individual, influences the individual's own interest in that particular partner. Unlike the "fox and the grapes" approach, which explains how underperception occurs in men as a means of face-saving, reciprocity reflects a real shift in the level of interest in a partner as a result of returning the perceived interest. ==Other examples==

Similar examples can also be seen in the judgment of whether a noise in the wild was a predator when it was more likely the wind—humans who assumed it was a predator were less likely to be attacked as prey over time than those who were skeptical. This is similar to the animistic fallacy. Smoke detectors are designed with this theory in mind. Since the cost of a Type I error (false positive, e.g. a nuisance alarm) is much lower than the cost of a Type II error (false negative, e.g. an undetected fire that could burn a house down), the sensitivity threshold of a smoke detector is designed to err on the side of Type I errors. This explains why nuisance alarms are relatively common. ==See also==