Conventional threats vs. sub-conventional threats The Threat Matrix has two defined dimensions: conventional threats and sub-conventional threats. Conventional threats are external threats to national security from outside the country, and sub-conventional threats refer to internal threats to national security from within the country. In January 2013,
Major-General Asif Salim of the
Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) briefed the
news media on new recent studies conducted by
Pakistan military. In an interview military scientist,
Talat Masood noted that before the new doctrine, India was viewed as "No. 1 enemy", but for the first time, it has been realised that Pakistan faces the real threat from within, a threat that is concentrated in areas along western borders. The conflict in the northwest is closely tied to the
War in Afghanistan, with factors like militant insurgency and future US pullout in Afghanistan having an intertwined effect on the conflict in Pakistan. According to Lieutenant-General Khalid Rabbani, commander of the
XI Corps in Peshawar, the withdrawal of foreign combat troops from Afghanistan since 2014 may trigger some challenging ramifications for Pakistan in terms of the threat matrix of Afghanistan: "If they are leaving and giving a notion of success to the Taliban of Afghanistan, this notion of success may have a snowballing effect on to the threat matrix of Afghanistan." Along with the challenges posed at the western front, India still retains an important focus in
threat assessments and Pakistan's civil-military foreign policy doctrine. According to an
Express Tribune editorial, the potential threat of arch-rival India in the east has an effect on the state's threat matrix on the western front too: "The dwindling capacity of the state to cope with terrorism is owed to Pakistan's 'vigilance' on the eastern border from where Pakistan's static 'threat matrix' expects India to attack and occupy Pakistan because it never accepted the creation of Pakistan." Harsh V. Pant of
Outlook India thinks that Pakistan's fast-growing nuclear arsenal, expanding at a greater rate than India's. during a charged sociopolitical atmosphere in the country is rapidly changing the dynamics of the nuclear matrix of the region and tactically underscores the Pakistani military establishment's "India-centric threat matrix." In 2016, the
Pakistan Navy revealed it was developing a "maritime doctrine" in response to an evolving conventional and subconventional threat matrix in the region of the
Indian Ocean. The doctrine would aim to protect Pakistan's maritime interests in the region.
Debates and rational thesis According to J. Berkshire Miller of
The Diplomat, "The military establishment in Pakistan, meanwhile, still views its Threat Matrix through an India-centric lens—Pakistan genuinely believes, rightly or wrongly, that India continues to work aggressively against its strategic interests through
bribery and espionage in Afghanistan." In his comprehensive thesis, ''Minimum Deterrence: Pakistan's Dilemma'', published at the
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) by the nuclear strategist and theorist
Brigadier-General (retired) Feroz Hassan Khan states that "Pakistan's Threat Matrix dramatically changed" after the events of the
1971 war and India's
nuclear bomb test in 1974. The term also has economic connotations. For instance, US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton outlined the downturn of the
2008 financial crisis and its effect on Pakistan, especially in the context of the
war against militancy: "this economic crisis, left unresolved, will create massive unemployment. It will upend governments, it will, unfortunately, breed instability.... I appreciated putting that into the context of the Threat Matrix, because look at Pakistan, a country that we know has to be stabilized for the benefit of not only South Asia, but beyond."
Military exercise and programming In June 2013, the Pakistan Armed Forces started a joint-
war game exercise, codenamed
Azm-i-Nau IV, in which the aim was to update the military's "readiness strategy for dealing with the complex security threat environment." The objective of the exercise was to assess military tactics, procedures and techniques in the event of an emerging threat environment, and explore joint operations strategies in response to combating the threat with all three branches of the military: the
Army,
Air Force and
Navy. The exercise took place amid renewed fears of the situation in Afghanistan post-withdrawal of coalition forces in 2014 as well as the "continuing internal threat of terrorism and India's growing regional ambitions." The newspaper
Dawn reported: "A senior military official said [the] war games were meant for coming up with a comprehensive response to all threats. He explained that the threat matrix was evolving and transforming. It includes both the internal challenge from terror groups of various shades and the conventional threat of external aggression." ==Scope==