April 2–3 , showing a large
high risk on the
Mississippi River basin, including
Memphis, Tennessee.
Forecast Starting on March 28, 2025, the
Storm Prediction Center began monitoring the risk of a severe weather event on April 2. Following a lack of expected severe potential the previous day, strong moisture return and the development of an upper-level system was discussed, with a 15% risk for severe weather being outlined over much of the middle
Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. The next day, as forecast models came into greater agreement about the mode and timing of the system, a 30% risk was introduced over parts of Arkansas, Missouri,
Mississippi,
Tennessee,
Illinois,
Indiana, and
Ohio, with forecasters describing that confidence existed for "a widespread, potentially substantial severe event". On March 30, the forecast was expanded to include parts of
Texas,
Louisiana, and
Michigan in the risk area, as forecasted shear supported a primarily supercell-focused storm mode. Three days out from the event, on the morning of March 31, an enhanced (3/5) risk was outlined over an area overlapping the previous 30% zone, now also including small parts of Oklahoma, Iowa, and
Alabama, while now covering the majority of Kentucky, Illinois, Arkansas, and Indiana. The system, now described as a negatively-tilted trough, was expected to produce a widespread outbreak of severe weather over the region. A large warm sector over the Great Lakes region, a powerful jet streak of , and an intense cold front, were all expected to contribute to the event, with the forecast outlining the risk for significant tornadoes, strong wind, and large hail. A higher risk category for the forecast was discussed over the middle Mississippi Valley, fueled by the threat of "multiple long-lived significant supercells", but was ultimately decided against due to a lack of confidence in how the storm system developed throughout the day. An outlook on April 1 introduced a moderate (4/5) risk over small parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana, driven by the threat of "significant to intense tornadoes", as outlined in updated model guidance. Due to significantly less uncertainty regarding the development of the storms, the
Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk (5/5)
convective outlook over southern Illinois, eastern Missouri, western Kentucky and Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and extreme northwest
Mississippi for "multiple EF3+ tornadoes". A
mid-level trough was positioned over the central
United States and will move northeastward, while at the surface, a strong surface cyclone will move through the upper
Mississippi Valley, accompanied by a jet streak ejection of , while a cold front moves through much of the region. A moist airmass was moving into the
Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley region, which was expected to rapidly destabilize throughout the day while convection along the cold front continued. MLCAPE, a measure of
atmospheric instability, was forecast to reach 2,500–3,500
J/kg in the middle Mississippi Valley, while a rapid ejection of the mid-level jet will bring strong ascent into the warm sector, conducive for intense storm development. The initiation of discrete storms was initially expected to occur east of the cold front inside of an unstable airmass, a region expected to – around 4 to 7p.m. CDT – harbor around 400 m2/s2 of
storm-relative helicity in the first 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, alongside deep-layer
shear of 60knots. These conditions will be conducive to the development of discrete tornadic supercells, the strongest of which were expected to be capable of producing intense (EF3–EF5) tornadoes. Multiple intense tornadoes were forecasted throughout the evening. More supercells, potentially producing tornadoes, were outlined as a risk in the southern
Ozarks and lower
Ohio River valley.
Development of storms Linear convection from the previous day persisted after midnight, with embedded supercells within the line posing a threat for tornadic activity due to the strongly sheared and destabilizing atmosphere over parts of Kansas and Missouri. At 2a.m., a surface-based cold front was still present, positioned from central Kansas towards Texas' southern plains, moving southeast. As moisture entered central Oklahoma, fueled by a strong southwesterly jet and steep mid-level lapse rates, the capped environment eroded, which created an environment conducive towards surface convection, including supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes. Later on, at 4:30a.m., as the line had migrated further east ahead of the cold front, forecasters noted that the potential for embedded supercells capable of wind, hail, and tornadoes, was increasing over much of Missouri and bordering regions of Kansas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Shortly before 7a.m., storms had been moving across Oklahoma, with a storm in the northeastern part of the state attaining a supercellular structure, producing a brief
tornado debris signature in the vicinity of
Tulsa and
Rogers counties. The line of storms moved parallel to the cold front into a region with an atmospheric capping inversion, which reduced the threat of further organization. Over central Missouri, a "somewhat messy storm mode" near the cold front moved towards an area marked by a relatively stable and capped atmosphere, which reduced the risk of severe hazards by 7:17a.m. Elevated storms had developed over parts of Ohio and Illinois, which produced a minor threat for hail and damaging winds throughout the later morning hours Further south, in northeastern Texas and surrounding areas, storms had begun forming on a pre-frontal confluence in an area with a minor capping inversion and moderate instability levels around 2500 J/kg. As these storms developed, the hazard of hail and strong tornadoes was noted by forecasters, despite the uncertainty of timing and ability to overcome the cap.
April 4 Forecast The day prior to the outbreak, the
Storm Prediction Center outlined an Enhanced (3/5) risk over much of Arkansas and bordering regions of Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri, as a surface cyclone was forecasted to develop over northeastern Texas or southeastern Oklahoma, which moved to the northeast, moving a warm sector into much of Arkansas and into far southern Missouri. Diurnal heating, alongside a growingly unstable atmosphere, strong shear, and forecasted storm-relative helicity values of 400m2/s2 over the region, were forecasted to support supercells, potentially producing strong tornadoes. Elevated convection along a cold front moving over Texas was also forecasted to pose a threat for large hail. A second outlook that day outlined a Moderate (4/5) risk over much of the same regions, with forecasters now outlining
MLCAPE instability values between 2500 and 3500 J/kg over a frontal zone, which was expected to develop strong supercells capable of potentially strong tornadoes as the evening progressed. A conditional threat for strong, long-tracked tornadoes was also outlined ahead of the frontal zone. Despite weak forcing ahead of the frontal zone, strong
MUCAPE instability values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg were forecasted to be conducive to the threat of discrete supercell development and the hazard of intense to violent tornadoes. == Confirmed tornadoes ==