MarketTornado outbreak of May 15–16, 2025
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Tornado outbreak of May 15–16, 2025

A destructive tornado outbreak occurred across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on May 15–16, 2025, producing 61 tornadoes and causing dozens of fatalities and billions in damages. The event occurred as a negatively-tilted trough moved into the Upper Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) first issued an enhanced risk on May 15 for portions of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Several tornadoes, mostly weak, touched down that day across the states of Wisconsin and Minnesota as embedded storms within a squall line moved through, causing damaging wind gusts.

Meteorological synopsis
May 15 Forecast Day 1 convective outlook on May 15 showing an enhanced risk for the Upper Midwest On the morning of May 15, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecast an enhanced (3/5) risk of severe weather over Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. A negatively tilted mid-level atmospheric trough was expected to move northeast across the Upper Midwest, which would cause jet streaks to move eastward over the Ozarks and northeastward over the upper Missouri River valley. Large ascent produced by the system was expected to produce a large warm sector through much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. A surface cyclone was expected to develop over the Dakotas, anchoring a potent warm front that would move north into Wisconsin and a cold front that would move east over the middle and upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the cold front would be an area of moderate instability and moist air with dewpoints near , with strong initial wind shear expected to support the development of supercells. Further east, around Milwaukee in southeastern Wisconsin and Chicago in northeastern Illinois, RAP model soundings anticipated moderate MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg, shear in the lowest of the atmosphere of 35–, and mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 °C/km, in addition to strong storm-relative helicity values of 250–300 m2/s2, which would support severe hazards if mature supercells spread over the area. The severe weather forecast was predicted to start near the surface cyclone in the upper Mississippi Valley, with individual storms expected to organize into discrete supercells as they exploited the region's conducive deep-layer shear values. This was expected to become a broken line of severe convection, which would move east-northeastward into northern Illinois and eastern Wisconsin as the day progressed. The region was expected to see supercells, some of which might bring strong downburst winds, large hail—up to in the strongest storms—and moderate to strong tornadoes. The broken line was expected to organize into a more linear storm with embedded supercells that might produce tornados and wind gusts exceeding at the leading edge of the line, and hail as the line moved into northern Indiana and Michigan's lower peninsula. Throughout the late evening, the system would maintain itself through strong deep-layer shear and higher boundary-level dewpoints, with recorded wind gusts reaching occurring by 9:47 p.m. CDT. Further south over northern Arkansas, existing storms began moving into a destabilized area of the region, though forecasters noted that storms might not intensify because of the presence of substantial convective inhibition in the region. May 16 outlook issued at 1300 UTC on May 16, 2025, outlining a moderate risk for the Ohio Valley The Storm Prediction Center outlined a moderate (4/5) risk over much of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys on May 16, with the greatest risk over southeastern Missouri, far northeastern Arkansas, northwestern Tennessee, southern Illinois and Indiana, far southwestern Ohio, and much of Kentucky. The upper-level low centered over the border of North Dakota and Minnesota was expected to move eastward into the middle Mississippi Valley. Following persisting convection from the previous day, a warm front would sweep over a large region from Missouri to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. Over this region, the atmosphere was expected to sharply destabilize, with MLCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg, strong mid-level flow, and deep-layer shear that might exceed 50 knots expected to help develop and intensify severe weather. Severe convection the previous day had persisted into the morning in northeastern Arkansas through eastern Kentucky, which was expected to move east into a destabilizing environment in West Virginia and western Virginia that afternoon, though the longevity of this system was uncertain. == Confirmed tornadoes ==
Confirmed tornadoes
Clayton–St. Louis, Missouri/Granite City–Glen Carbon, Illinois This large, fast-moving, and deadly tornado caused significant damage to portions of the Greater St. Louis area. The tornado first touched down at 2:39 pm CDT in Clayton just east of I-170 in St. Louis County, Missouri. Upon touching down, the tornado immediately reached EF2 intensity as it moved eastward-southeastward through Clayton, damaging apartment buildings, homes, and low-rise buildings, uprooting trees, and snapping tree branches. Turning east-northeastward, it then caused widespread EF1 damage to trees, power poles, and residences at Fontbonne University; one area of EF2 damage was noted with some power poles that were snapped. The tornado then entered the City of St. Louis, where the tornado sirens failed to sound before the tornado hit as the emergency manager who was supposed to sound them was at training session and away from her office while the back-up button at the fire department was broken and they only received one directive to sound them, but it was garbled and ambiguous. The tornado continued to produce widespread tree damage as it moved into the city with the St. Louis Zoo also sustaining damage from the storm's rear flank downdraft. The tornado then began to intensify quickly and reached EF2 intensity after crossing Forest Park Parkway. It heavily damaged multiple apartment buildings, damaged homes, shattered windows, and snapped and uprooted numerous trees. In the Central West End and Academy neighborhoods, more homes, churches, mid-rise buildings, traffic lights, power poles, and trees were heavily damaged. Northeast of there, the strengthening tornado blew out the walls and windows and partially and completely removed the roofs of several businesses and brick townhouses, and caused widespread damage to trees, power poles, and traffic lights. Other churches had windows shattered and exterior damage as well. Two areas of low-end EF3 damage occurred on the northwest side of the tornado's path, with a strip mall being partially destroyed and a brick townhouse being flattened; the neighboring brick townhouse was damaged at EF2 intensity. The mayor of St. Louis confirmed that five people were killed and the tornado caused $1.6 billion in damage; one of the deaths was later determined to have been caused by wind damage and not the tornado itself, leaving the death toll from the tornado at four. Ameren reported more than 100,000 customers without power in the city. Additionally, 38 people were injured by the tornado. Linton–Switz City–Worthington, Indiana A supercell rode along the warm front in west-central Indiana, before dropping this powerful and deadly tornado in western Greene County, west-northwest of Linton at 6:44 p.m. EDT. The tornado initially caused EF0 damage to a barn right after touch down, but quickly began to intensify. After causing EF1 damage around into its journey, the tornado intensified and caused EF2 damage to an outbuilding along SR 54/SR 59, completely destroying the structure. The tornado continued tracking in an east-northeastern manner, weakening to EF1 intensity as it obliterated a barn and rolled a camper, before destroying it. Shortly after, the tornado regained EF2 intensity and caused considerable damage to another barn one home just north of Linton. The tornado would then leave Linton and become cloaked in copious amounts of dust as it traversed through farm fields, impacting many homes and farmsteads at EF2 intensity. One home in particular in this area on 295 North suffered high-end EF2 damage, with the southern side of the residence completely collapsed, while a barn on the property was destroyed as well. The strong tornado continued plowing through farmland, before impacting a farmstead on County Road 900 West where a manufactured home, and its debris were blown away from its concrete mounds. Occasional EF2 damage to trees and farm outbuildings as the tornado passed far north of Switz City and crossed SR 67 and US 231/SR 57. As the tornado passed south of Worthington, it began to cause more significant damage to properties, though at one farmstead along County Road 325 North, the tornado caused exceptional amounts of damage. Here, a home suffered several exterior wall collapses, with complete destruction of the garage. Many trees were stubbed and denuded, debris was strewn across some distances and fields were partially scoured. Another nearby, and anchored residence was completely destroyed and wiped off its foundation along 325 North. The tornado would continue to the east, producing its last area of EF2 damage to a large pole barn on County Road 200 West before dissipating at 7:06 p.m. EDT. This tornado killed one person, and injured three others as it remained on the ground for 22 minutes. It tracked for , and was wide across portions within Greene County. The parent supercell that produced this tornado persisted onwards as it continued east, dropping an EF1 tornado west of Solsberry before a significant, and long-tracked EF2 tornado moved through the southern side of Bloomington, Indiana. Wolf Creek–Hudgens–Marion, Illinois The storm that produced this violent, fast-moving tornado was first tornado-warned at 5:09p.m. CDT by the National Weather Service St. Louis, Missouri while it was over Sainte Genevieve County, Missouri; another tornado warning was issued two minutes for parts of Perry County, Missouri by the National Weather Service Paducah, Kentucky as it crossed over into its CWA. The initial circulation then dissipated and a new one formed further to the south and progressed eastward, crossing the state line into Illinois. Following the issuance of a fifth tornado warning for the cell at 6:08p.m. CDT, the tornado touched down along Grassy Road at 6:15p.m. CDT northwest of Wolf Creek in Williamson County, initially causing mostly EF0 tree damage as it moved due east. Nearing IL 148, the tornado intensified to EF1 strength, destroying an outbuilding and heavily damaging a mobile home as it crossed the highway. At this point, the tornado warning for the storm was upgraded to a particularly dangerous situation tornado warning because radar had confirmed the presence of debris being lofted by the tornado. South of Marion, the tornado abruptly intensified again and became violent, reaching its peak intensity on Kyler Court, sweeping a two-story house off its elevated floor system and debarking and stubbing hundreds of trees behind the home. This home had a crawlspace foundation, where the home sat on top an elevated floor system. Sill plates were anchored to the concrete foundation by bolts, and the floor joists were toe-nailed to the sill plates. The failure occurred at the weak connection between the floor joists and wall bottom plate, where straight nails were used. These connections are deemed to be well-constructed, but just slightly below the 'expected' threshold of for degree of damage 10. The damage to the home, along with the extreme tree damage nearby led to a high-end EF4 rating with winds of being assigned to this home. Another home nearby was almost completely leveled, other homes had roofs removed and exterior walls knocked down, and an outbuilding was destroyed, with numerous trees also falling on the debris from the structure. The tornado then weakened somewhat but remained intense as it crossed Wards Mill Road at mid-range EF3 intensity. Two homes were leveled, with an injury occurring in the second one, other homes had roofs removed and exterior walls knocked down, outbuildings were demolished, four wooden power poles were snapped, and trees were shredded. The tornado then weakened further, but remained strong, continuing eastward at EF2 intensity through more rural and wooden areas. Most of the damage along this portion of the path was trees being snapped, although it also destroyed an outbuilding, heavily damaged a home, and snapped power poles as well. The tornado reintensified to high-end EF3 strength again as it crossed IL 166, sweeping away an unanchored home, leveling a nailed-down home, and removing the roof and knocking down some exterior walls of a third home. The storm would remain tornado warned for four more hours as it continued eastward, producing three additional tornadoes before weakening below severe limits over northwestern Hardin County, Kentucky. County officials instituted an overnight curfew for unsafe travel conditions. Volunteer centers, including two Red Cross shelters, opened in Marion the following day. Whittle–Somerset–Mount Victory–London, Kentucky This large, long-tracked, and devastating tornado first touched down in Russell County northeast of Jamestown at 10:26 p.m.EDT. At the touchdown point, the tornado damaged the roof of an outbuilding as it started eastward and crossed KY 619. The tornado then shattered windows and inflicted roof and siding damage to a home before crossing Caney Creek, uprooting trees on the hillsides on both sides of the creek. The tornado then turned east-northeastward, rolling and destroying a mobile home before crossing McFarland Creek and moving into Whittle and crossing KY 1611. The tornado partially removed the roof off a home and an outbuilding as it moved east-northeastward and crossed KY 76 before rapidly intensifying to high-end EF2 intensity, significantly debarking and stubbing hardwood trees, and destroying mobile homes and a camper. East of there, the tornado caused additional significant EF2-EF3 damage at Levi Jackson Park, the Laurel County Fairgrounds, Crooked Creek Golf Course, and other residential areas. The tornado then abruptly weakened significantly, causing only EF0 damage as it crossed KY 80 and KY 488 before dissipating west of Lida at 11:56 pm EDT. == Non-tornadic effects ==
Non-tornadic effects
Severe weather occurred over a wide area, including strong wind gusts and large hail. One person was injured in Macon, Illinois, when a tree fell onto a house. A dust storm warning was issued for Chicago, Illinois, with winds up to and near zero visibility. It was deemed the worst dust storm in Chicago since 1934. In Northern Virginia, two people were killed after trees fell onto their vehicles. In West Chester, Pennsylvania, a flash flooding required a man to be rescued from his car. Nearby, a Philadelphia Phillies game was delayed by the severe weather as well. Heat wave High temperature records for May 15 were broken in Chicago and Houston. A daily record high was also broken in Oklahoma City on May 14. The high temperatures in Minnesota also led to several wildfires, which burned 32,000 acres and destroyed 150 structures. Wildfires in Manitoba resulted in two deaths. == Aftermath ==
Aftermath
Recovery efforts The city of St. Louis and surrounding areas like Clayton declared a state of emergency after city officials confirmed five deaths across the city from severe weather. placing stickers on structures based on their integrity. Structures marked with red stickers are unsafe to occupy, while those with yellow stickers should be entered with caution. The stickers are non-binding and are meant for informative purposes only. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) dispatched two teams to St. Louis following the tornado, focusing on Greater Ville and Kingsway East. On May 21, Missouri governor Mike Kehoe announced he would be asking President Trump for federal disaster aid following the tornado. Kehoe relayed that FEMA had called the amount of residential destruction in St. Louis the largest the organization had surveyed since the Joplin tornado in 2011. As of May 23, 2025, federal funding has yet to been allocated for the St. Louis tornado. FEMA was also dispatched to London, Kentucky to help with immediate recovery efforts. Kentucky governor Andy Beshear praised the federal response to the tornado, stating "But they've done a good job when FEMA has come in to Kentucky, and I'm grateful". Staffing cuts controversy The issuance of tornado warnings during the event and staffing cuts as a whole at the National Weather Service in Jackson, Kentucky, were a significant source of controversy following the outbreak. Due to staffing cuts caused by the Department of Government Efficiency, the three major NWS offices in Kentucky were all understaffed at the time of the tornado outbreak. Despite the cuts, the Jackson office was prepared to be fully-staffed on May 16 due to the upcoming severe weather event. Christian Cassell, one of the lead meteorologists at the office, stated that "we saw the risk many days ago. We were already planning how we would staff days in advance". == See also ==
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