The governments of Turkey and Azerbaijan have demanded the following concessions for lifting the blockade; • The resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Azerbaijan's favor, • Armenia's withdrawal of international recognition of
Turkey's genocide in
Western Armenia, • Armenia's ratification of the 1921 Turkish–Armenian borders it inherited from the Kemalist-Soviet
Treaty of Kars, • An
extraterritorial corridor through Armenia. Multiple sources, including human rights advocates and locals, have stated that the blockade aims to eliminate the remaining Armenian population in the
Armenian Highlands. During the
Armenian Genocide, Turkey also blockaded Armenia in 1918, preventing the influx of food supplies, leading to a famine and epidemics. Being a landlocked country, Armenia is very susceptible to blockades as a form of political coercion. The ongoing blockade and the ensuing
energy crisis led to large effects on Armenia's environment, economy and civil society. Donald Miller and Lorna Touryan state that Armenians were "reduced to living like their medieval ancestors" due to the deprivations imposed on society.
Humanitarian impact The blockade had a devastating humanitarian impact on Armenia, exacerbating the effects of the
1988 earthquake and leading to severe shortages in essential supplies. Hospitals struggled to function due to acute shortages of electricity, heat, and medical supplies, which led to many ceasing operations. Bread was rationed daily to 200-250 grams per person. The decline in living standards led to between 17% and 30% of Armenia's population emigrating. Public transportation ceased or became prohibitively expensive By 1993, over half of the hospitals in Armenia had stopped operating because they lacked essential resources, leading to the deaths of healthy infants due to the cold and inadequate equipment. This vulnerability particularly affected the elderly and newborns, causing rapid declines in the level of medical care.
Impact on Armenia's civil society The historian Peter Rutland states, "The need to unify and protect the Armenian nation was the driving force that persuaded diverse social groups within Armenia to sink their differences and cooperate against the common foe. However, this consensus came at a huge price: years of economic blockade and armed struggle. There is a great danger that the strains arising from the conflict with Azerbaijan will undermine the fragile consensus that launched Armenian democracy." Multiple sources consider the blockade to be a violation of the Treaty of Kars, which calls for "free transit of persons and commodities without any hindrance" among the signatories and that the parties would take "all the measures necessary to maintain and develop as quickly as possible railway, telegraphic, and other communications." Following independence, the Armenian government under
Ter-Petrosyan aspired to improve diplomatic relations with Turkey, despite the ongoing historical legacy of the
Armenian Genocide. However, according to the economist Eduard Agajanov, this position later changed. In 2005, Agajanov asserted that the need to reopen the borders was downplayed in order to "to preserve the current oligarchic economic system in Armenia, which cannot survive if the borders are opened and competition with Turkish goods becomes tougher." The historian Vahagn Avedian states "the Armenian political leadership exploited the animosity from Turkey and Azerbaijan which has stifled democratic development and restrained opposition, fearing that internal unrest could be exploited by Azerbaijan in the
Karabakh conflict." He states that this has "amplified the well-known Armenian proverb, 'Rather our sick lamb than the enemy's healthy wolf,'
a lesson of two millennia of statehood, balancing in a geopolitical position jammed between superpowers." with over 80% of the country's borders closed for more than 30 years. Up until the blockade, 85% of Armenia's goods and 80% of its energy was supplied through Azerbaijan. The ensuing
energy crisis produced by the blockade produced massive layoffs and other enduring effects: economic studies in the early 2000s concluded that the blockade cost the Armenian economy 30–40% of its national productivity, and ten years after the
1988 Spitak earthquake 17,500 people were still living in temporary housing in Gyumri. and gives Georgia a near-monopoly position over Armenia. The economic growth of Armenia was crippled after 1989 by the blockade of fuel and other materials, and nearly all energy was supplied from abroad, causing shortages under the early 1990s blockade. Natural gas delivery from Turkmenistan via the Georgia pipeline was frequently blocked, contributing to chronic fuel shortages. The impact of the blockade remains significant and contribute to Armenia's ongoing economic difficulties and complicate its integration into regional economic systems.
Environmental impact The blockade forced reliance on unsustainable practices like widespread deforestation and intensive agriculture, led to risky energy solutions such as the potential reactivation of a nuclear power plant, and necessitated the reopening of polluting industries. These actions were undertaken to mitigate the immediate hardships imposed by the blockade but posed significant long-term risks to environmental health and ecological balance. One significant consequence has been widespread deforestation, as the blockade cut off fuel supplies, forcing people to rely heavily on wood for heating and cooking during harsh winters. This deforestation has led to soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, and increased vulnerability to natural disasters such as landslides. Additionally, the energy crisis prompted the government to consider restarting the
Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, which had been shut down due to earthquake risks, thereby raising concerns about potential nuclear hazards. Armenian Environmental Committee Chairman Samuel Shahinian explained the decision: "Our people are so cold we cannot explain anything to them, they just want to be warm." Further safety concerns arose when it was revealed that the ongoing blockade of the country by its neighbours Turkey and Azerbaijan meant that nuclear fuel for the plant was flown onboard Antonov and Tupolev airplanes from Russia into Yerevan Airport in secret shipments which Alexis Louber, Head of the EU delegation in Yerevan, likened to "flying around a potential nuclear bomb." The blockade also severely affected water resources.
Lake Sevan, Armenia's largest freshwater body, experienced significant water level drops due to increased reliance on hydroelectric power to compensate for the energy shortfall. Furthermore, the blockade's economic strain forced Armenia to reopen highly polluting industries like the Nairit Chemical Plant, which had been closed in the previous year due to their environmental impact.
Geopolitical impact The blockade has hampered Armenia's inclusion in regional infrastructure projects and promoted its economic and security dependence on Russia. Except with Georgia, all international railway links between Armenia and its neighbors have been closed since 1993 due to the blockade against the country by Turkey and Azerbaijan. The blockade and Turkish government's ongoing
denial of the genocide have been cited as significant barriers to Turkey's membership into the European Union. In its attempt to isolate Nagorno-Karabakh,
the Azerbaijani government blacklists humanitarian organizations and journalists who worked in the region. The only international organizations who continued to work in Nagorno-Karabakh were
HALO and the
ICRC. The
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe,
Reporters Without Borders, and the
International Federation of Journalists, have called on Azerbaijan to allow entry of independent organizations, including United Nations agencies. As a result of the blockade, Armenia must depend on unreliable supply routes with Georgia and Iran for trade and humanitarian assistance. The
border between Armenia and Georgia is crucial because international sanctions restrict trade with Iran, and Armenia's trade with Russia, its main trade partner, relies on transit through Georgia. Approximately 70% of Armenia's foreign trade go through Georgia: however, seasonal weather conditions affecting the Verkhniy Lars border crossing and inconsistent ferry services from Georgia's Black Sea ports limit Armenian goods' access to international markets. Armenia's exclusion from major regional projects is evident in its absence from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the South Caucasus Gas Pipeline, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway network, which have been instrumental in boosting connectivity and economic integration in the South Caucasus. To mitigate its isolation, Armenia has sought to enhance its connectivity through alternative routes. Notably, Armenia has been in discussions with India to use Iran's Chabahar Port to boost trade and connectivity. This port offers Armenia access to the Indian Ocean and broader markets in Central Asia and India, which is seen as a crucial step to overcome the limitations imposed by the blockade. Turkey's decision to join Azerbaijan in the blockade spurred Armenia to approve a security agreement in 1994 with Russia that stations Russian forces at the Armenian-Turkish border. The Metsamor nuclear power plant which supplies Armenia with 30% of its energy requires fuel that is flown in from Russia, due to the land blockade. Armenian officials have openly stated that the decision to join the
Eurasian Economic Union was forced by economic and security concerns, citing the blockade as a factor. Trade between Armenia and Turkey is also imbalanced, with the Armenian market being fully accessible to Turkish goods while Turkey remains almost entirely closed to Armenian imports. == Developments ==