The 2008 Iowa caucuses took place on January 3, 2008. They are an unofficial primary, with the delegates to the state convention selected proportionally via a
straw poll. The
Iowa caucuses mark the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2008 United States presidential election. It was the first election of the
2008 presidential election. Also referred to as "the First in the Nation Caucus," it was the first election of the primary season on both the Democratic and Republican sides.
Democratic caucuses Of the eight major Democratic presidential candidates, then-
U.S. Senator Barack Obama of
Illinois received the most votes and was ultimately declared the winner of the Iowa Democratic Caucus of 2008, making him the first
African American to win the caucus. Former
U.S. Senator John Edwards of
North Carolina came in second place and then-
U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton of
New York finished third, though Clinton received more delegates than Edwards. Campaigning had begun as early as two years before the event.
History The Iowa Caucuses have historically been the first held in the
United States. The caucus marked the traditional and formal start of the delegate selection process for the
2008 United States presidential election, and the process in which members of the Democratic Party gathered to make policy decisions. Iowa state law mandates that its caucus must be held at least eight days before any other meeting, caucus, or primary for the presidential nominating process. Therefore, the Iowa Caucuses have always been traditionally the leading state in the nominating process. Not only did controversy brew between the candidates, but the caucuses themselves drew a large amount of media attention. The decisions of the Iowans often affect the rest of the campaign season. Barack Obama's victory in Iowa helped establish him as one of the Democratic frontrunners of 2008 and was a first step toward his eventual nomination.
Process The caucuses followed the regular procedures of the
Democratic Party process. Any voter who was a registered Democrat and a resident of Iowa was eligible to participate in the event. Individuals could have chosen to register or change their party affiliation at the door. To be viable, each preference group/candidate must have had at least 15 percent of the caucusgoers' votes. If a candidate received less than 15 percent of the caucusgoers' votes, then the supporters of that non-viable candidate had 30 minutes to join a viable candidate's group, join another non-viable candidate's group to make the candidate viable, join an uncommitted group, or choose not to be counted as a voter. At the Iowa Democratic Party State Convention, on the other hand, 16 pledged delegates proportionally represented the candidates' support. Ten of these delegates were designated as
at-large, meaning that they represent the entire state as a whole. The other unpledged delegate is an
add-on delegate, who is selected at the Iowa Democratic Party State Convention. Barack Obama's results in the opinion polls rose from 28% in the Des Moines Register's poll in late November 2007. This was in part a result of a "dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of
political independents." Since Hillary Rodham Clinton had the highest delegate strength in
Iowa's 5th congressional district (a district allocated four national convention delegates) and received the same amount of national delegates elsewhere, she was projected to receive one more national delegate than Edwards despite receiving fewer projected delegates to the state convention. Thus, Clinton initially retained an overall delegate lead following the Iowa results.
Dennis Kucinich and Barack Obama competed against each other in the Iowa Caucuses, but Kucinich asked that Iowans caucusing for him, should they fail to build a viable preference group on Caucus Night to realign to Barack Obama in the second round. Both had fought for the same priorities including ending the
Iraq War, reforming
Washington, D.C., and creating a better life for working families. In the
2004 Iowa Democratic Caucuses, Kucinich made a similar announcement in favor of John Edwards. At that caucus, Edwards's aides claimed that this request helped put him in second place. In the 2008 Iowa Caucus, however, Kucinich did not conduct much of a campaign in Iowa. He paid for no organizers nor offices in the state, and he was not invited to the
Des Moines Register's debate in December 2007.
Mike Gravel didn't conduct an active campaign in Iowa either. While the 2008 Iowa Caucuses saw a record turnout for both parties, the Democratic caucus drew more than 239,000 voters, almost double the Republican total. Entrance polling indicated that a significant portion of the turnout came from first-time caucus attendees, as well as attendees under the age of 30; two groups of voters that primarily lent their support to
Barack Obama. Women, previously expected to largely back
Hillary Clinton, split their vote between Clinton and Obama, the latter of whom actually received slightly more support. In New Hampshire pre-primary polls conducted from January 4 to January 6, 2008, Obama enjoyed a 13-point lead over Clinton.
County convention results Convention Date: March 15, 2008
National Pledged Delegates Determined: 0 (of 45)
District convention results Convention Date: April 26, 2008
National pledged delegates determined: 29 (of 45)
Analysis Barack Obama scored a major victory in the Iowa Democratic Caucuses due to a number of factors. According to exit polls, 93 percent of voters in the Iowa Democratic Caucus were
Caucasian and 33% voted for Obama, 27 percent for Clinton, and 24 percent for Edwards; 4% of voters were
African American and 72% voted for Obama, 16% for Clinton, and 8% for Edwards; 3% represented other races and they went 49% for Obama, 26% for Clinton, 10% for Richardson, and 5% for Edwards. Obama also won young voters ages 17–44 with 52% of the vote compared to 16% for both Clinton and Edwards. Edwards won middle-age voters ages 45–59 with 30% while Obama received 29% and Clinton took in 26% of their support. Clinton did best among elderly voters ages 60 and over with 40% of the vote while Edwards received 27% and Obama took in 19.5% of their support. Obama won self-identified Democrats by a margin of 32-31-23 (Obama-Clinton-Edwards),
Independents backed Obama 41-23-17 (Obama-Edwards-Clinton), as well as self-identified Republicans who supported Obama 44-32-10 (Obama-Edwards-Clinton). Obama also won
moderates and
liberals but Edwards won
conservatives. Socioeconomic class was not really a factor in how voters made their decisions, as Obama won all groups of family incomes. Obama performed best in Eastern Iowa, which is considered to be the more liberal part of the state, and Central Iowa which is considered to be the more moderate part of the state. Clinton performed best in Western Iowa, which is considered to be the most conservative part of the state.
Republican caucuses Prior to the 2008 caucuses, as in previous election cycles with a competitive presidential race, an unofficial
Ames Straw Poll was held, on August 11, 2007. The official one, electing delegates to the state convention, was held on January 3, 2008, the same day as the
Democratic contest. In the
Ames Straw Poll,
Mitt Romney finished first with 32% of the vote. In the January 2008 caucuses,
Mike Huckabee finished first with 34% of the vote.
Process Unlike the Democratic caucus, the
Republican Party does not use voting rounds or have minimum requirements for a percent of votes. The Republican version is done with a straw vote of those attending the caucus. This vote is sometimes done by a show of hands or by dividing themselves into groups according to candidate. However, officially it is done with voters receiving a blank piece of paper with no names on it, and the voter writing a name and placing it in a ballot box. Following the straw poll, delegates are then elected from the remaining participants in the room, as most voters leave once their vote is cast. All delegates are officially considered unbound, but media outlets either apportion delegates proportionally or apportion them in terms of winner-take-all by counties. In precincts that elect only one delegate, the delegate is chosen by majority vote and the vote must be by paper ballot. The state party strongly urges that delegates reflect the results of the preference poll, but there is no obligation that they do so.
The Ames Straw Poll The 2007
Ames straw poll was held at
Iowa State University (Ames)'s
Hilton Coliseum on August 11, 2007. This was primarily a fundraising event for the state's
Republican Party, and only Iowa residents who paid the $35 price for a ticket were eligible to vote. Tickets were available through the various presidential campaigns and the Iowa Republican Party's headquarters. In general, the candidates bought large blocks of tickets and gave them out for free to whoever agreed to go and vote for that candidate. The candidates also rented buses to transport voters to Ames.
Mitt Romney finished first with 32% of the vote, followed by
Mike Huckabee (18%),
Sam Brownback (15%),
Tom Tancredo (14%), and
Ron Paul (10%). Six other candidates shared the remaining 14% of the vote.
Pre-caucus polls Before the caucuses, the
Des Moines Register reported the following results from a poll of 800 likely Republican caucus goers from December 27 to December 30, 2007: •
Mike Huckabee – 32% •
Mitt Romney – 26% •
John McCain – 13% •
Fred Thompson – 9% •
Ron Paul – 9% •
Rudy Giuliani – 5% •
Duncan Hunter – 1% •
Alan Keyes – 1% • Not sure/Uncommitted – 4% The above results have a margin of sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points. Mike Huckabee's results in the opinion polls rose from 29% in the Des Moines Register's poll in late November 2007. Mitt Romney rose two points from 24% in November to 26% in December. John McCain enjoyed the biggest increase from November, increasing six points from 7% to 13%, while Rudy Giuliani suffered the biggest drop from November, decreasing eight points from 13% to 5%. Giuliani's large drop was attributed to his strategy of skipping early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire in favor of larger, delegate-rich states such as
Florida,
California, and
New York. but his name remained in the official list of candidates of the Iowa Republican Party. Some 120,000 Iowa Republicans attended the 2008 caucuses, a new record. About 87,000 attended in 2000; in 2004,
George W. Bush ran unopposed. ==General election==